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Kristian Ramos

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The Flow of Undocumented Migrants Entering The U.S. Has Nearly Stopped, But Not for the Reasons You May Think

Posted: 07/15/11 12:20 PM ET

Illegal Migration into the United States has all but stopped, and not entirely for the reasons you may think. It is not just because the United States has put unprecedented levels of resources along the border, but, and this may come as a shock to some, mostly because Mexico's economy is improving.

One of the general arguments as to why there are so many undocumented immigrants in America is that Mexico is a developing nation and the lure of jobs is too hard for migrants from all over Latin America to resist.

None other than George Will, conservative writer made just this argument the other day. His full quote was, and this I believe is a fairly standard talking point for the GOP these days: "It's very different when you are the only developed nation in the world with a 2,000-mile border with a developing nation." Very broadly he was arguing that the lure of jobs has been the reason that immigrants have come to our country for generations.

George Will is a really smart guy, and his statement is partly correct, migrants have been coming to the U.S. to work for a long time, but he is dead wrong when he calls Mexico a developing nation.

According to Census data, Mexico is currently the United States' third largest trading partner. Last year the United States did more trade with Mexico then it did with Great Britain, France and Germany combined.

Additionally, according to prominent economist Robert Newell the per-capita gross domestic product and family income have each jumped more than 45 percent since 2000. Which is to say that Mexico's economy is doing better than it has in a long time, which ultimately has led to the decline in illegal crossings of migrants.

The common Republican refrain for why they cannot move forward on a comprehensive solution to our broken immigration system is that the border must be secured to stop migrants from coming to America and stealing jobs from legal citizens. If illegal migration into the United States has nearly stopped, then this argument simply no longer holds.

Yet, the GOP continues to use the border and the jobs argument to not come to the table on broader immigration reforms. Majority Leader of the House John Boehner was recently asked about whether or not he would support administrative relief for DREAM Act students, he said: "We really can't deal with other issues until it (the border) is secure. House Judiciary Committee Chairman Lamar Smith is equally guilty of this, as he loves to say that the border must be secured to stop migrants from coming and taking American jobs.

There is just one problem with this conflation: Illegal migration to the United States has all but stopped in recent years. As Mexico's economy has improved, the willingness to pay large fees to cross the desert in 125 degree heat to work in an underground economy with no rights and doing back-breaking work for little pay has actually dropped. Who would have thought?

A recent New York Times article by Damien Cave shows that there is in fact: "A growing body of evidence suggests that a mix of developments -- expanding economic and educational opportunities, rising border crime and shrinking families -- are suppressing illegal traffic as much as economic slowdowns or immigrant crackdowns in the United States."

According to experts at Princeton's Mexican Migrant Project: "...research showed that interest in heading to the United States for the first time had fallen to its lowest level since at least the 1950s. "No one wants to hear it, but the flow has already stopped," Mr. Massey said, referring to illegal traffic. "For the first time in 60 years, the net traffic has gone to zero and is probably a little bit negative."

As it turns out, Mexico is not a failed state, the great American job magnet is no longer as lucrative as it once was, and the National Guard Troops and unprecedented numbers of Border Patrol agents along the border are actually acting as a deterrent to illegal migration along our borders.

One would think that the House GOP would be happy. When the Democrats where in power in Congress, literally the only immigration legislation the Republicans would play ball on was those that sent resources to secure the border. Which is to say that Democrats have done their part, the border is safer, and illegal migration has in fact dropped to next to nothing. If the House GOP wants to claim victory on this, all the better since maybe then we could get on with something other than enforcement only immigration legislation and hopefully lay to rest the idea that Mexico is a failed state and that the border is porous.

 

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Illegal Migration into the United States has all but stopped, and not entirely for the reasons you may think. It is not just because the United States has put unprecedented levels of resources along t...
Illegal Migration into the United States has all but stopped, and not entirely for the reasons you may think. It is not just because the United States has put unprecedented levels of resources along t...
 
 
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12:31 PM on 07/21/2011
Now we just need to deport the ILLEGAL ALIENS who are already living in our country!
12:29 PM on 07/21/2011
It doesn't matter why it has stopped. I am just glad it is stopping. Now we need to get the ILLEGAL ALIENS who are alreadying living in our country OUT!
10:09 AM on 07/18/2011
If the situation is fixing itself because of economic development in Mexico that does not prove the Border is secure. It only proves that less Mexican people are entering the USA Illegally. A third of the Illegal Immigrants in the USA do not come from Mexico. This proves nothing about their ability to enter illegally.

The Obama Administration can’t even roll out Secure Communities without opposition. And e-Verify meets the same opposition. Just try to end Sanctuary City policies. Those who support Illegal Immigration march out every rumor, long dead historical reference, or even cry racism and file law suits to stop any attempt at real enforcement.

The supporters of Illegal Immigration can never understand why those of us who were around in 1986 are loath to make another “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” deal. In 1986 the Simpson-Mazzoli deal was tough enforcement in return for amnesty. Only half of that deal was ever delivered. The Amnesty was given, but those who agreed to tough enforcement turned around and did everything that they could to successfully sabotage ALL tough enforcement.

Now, 25 years later, it is the same old song and dance - tough enforcement in exchange for the amnesty lite called "a pathway to legalization". And just like in 1986 the amnesty is supposed to come first with the tough enforcement done later. Deporting a small fraction of the over 11 million people who illegally entered in the USA after 1986 and then saying “system works” is a joke.
08:12 PM on 07/17/2011
I can make up figures too. I estimate there are up to 50 million additional illegal immigrants here. WE will find that out when they legalize them with another amnesty program.
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frankg3400
03:14 PM on 07/17/2011
"Illegal migration into the United States has all but stopped"? The DHS statistics for 2010 are that there were 463,382 illegal migrant apprehensions with around 212,000 just within the Tucson sector. Janet Napolitano states the ratio is 2:1 for illegals who get thru to the illegals apprehended, however, we know that the border patrol hardly apprehends every other illegal coming across. Even if we take the 2:1 ratio, there are still almost 1 million illegals entering the US as of December 2010. Sure, that is a big improvement from years past but to state "all but stopped" is ridiculous. Sure 7 months have passed since the 2010 stats, but to think those numbers have shrunk so dramatically since then is absurd and to say "has gone to Zero" is laughable.
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voyager48
Illegitimi Non Carborundum
12:30 PM on 07/18/2011
Of the 463,382, 447,000 were at the Southern border and 83% were of Mexican origin. Official estimates from CBP are that they believe that they apprehend 1:3. Unofficial estimates form CBP officers go as high as 1:6.

Either way to your point illegal immigration is nowhere near under control.
03:09 PM on 07/17/2011
Hey, that's great. Mexico's economy is recovering and they don't even have to figure out how to find jobs for about 10 million of its poorest and undereducated citizens who live here. Guess that's our problem now.
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Picosa
dedicated to FACTS & TRUTH
12:17 PM on 07/17/2011
Almost every day now, it's possible to hear supposedly authoritative "facts" about illegal immigration and immigrants bandied about by politicians, major media commentators and even allegedly objective news reporters — statistics and other assertions that paint a frightening picture of hostile, disease-carrying and highly criminal Latino "aliens" bringing economic ruin to the United States.

It's no longer uncommon to hear false or distorted statistics and half-truths coming from more mainstream groups like FAIR,( Federation for American Immigration Reform,) and The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, and aired on innumerable radio talk shows and major cable programs like the Fox News Channel's "The O'Reilly Factor."

Very few of the current roster of negative stereotypes — not to mention the conspiracy theories about immigration that are also increasingly widespread — contain any truth at all.

Today in an even more poisonous atmosphere, millions of Americans apparently believe the lies touted by nativist extremists. What follows is an attempt to distinguish demonizing propaganda from reality.
http://www.splcenter.org/get-informed/intelligence-report/browse-all-issues/2007/summer/paranoid-style-redux/getting-immigrat
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
frankg3400
03:52 PM on 07/17/2011
False statistics are a product of both sides of this issue. Just like the 80% of Americans want amnesty nonsense, the never ending one sided sob stories . I live in Tucson and don't need anyone to tell me anything, since I see reality on a daily basis here and worked in local hospitals for almost 30 years. It's funny that one of the new mantras against American citizens is that we are Nativist extremists, but on the other hand Nativism is a great thing for illegals and Mexicans specifically.
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Picosa
dedicated to FACTS & TRUTH
12:13 PM on 07/17/2011
Current estimates indicate that since the passage of NAFTA wages have decreased by 30 percent while the cost of living in Mexico has increased by 250 percent. Rather than improving the lives of Mexican workers, most of the new wealth created by NAFTA has flowed to the North as superprofits for American capitalism.

The advantage to U.S. capitalism was swift and substantial -- by 1983 two thirds of the foreign investment in Mexico was concentrated in the maquiladoras and, in one year (between 1982 and 1983), wages were cut in half (from $1.38 to $.67 per hour). The superprofits realized by America firms helped pull the U.S. out of its own economic crisis and attracted even more American capital to Mexico. Between 1982 and 1987, the number of maquiladoras and the maquiladora workforce nearly doubled.

To make matters worse, wages have been steadily declining in the maquiladora industries from $1.38 per hour in 1982 to less than $.50 an hour in 2001. The current maquiladora minimum wage of $3.50 per day is below subsistence level income even in Mexico. With the prevailing high prices of goods and services along the border, it takes four to five times the current minimum wage to pay for an average family's basic needs.
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MisterCee
The Ruler's back!
12:55 PM on 07/17/2011
The only people who benefited from NAFTA were the corporations. It did nothing for the American worker just like it did nothing for the Mexican worker. The Maquiladora's were nothing but the first step towards globalization and displacement of the American worker and when the corporations discovered they could pay less wages in Asian, they left Mexico and went there.
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OntheBorder
Part of the 47% that pays taxes
09:42 AM on 07/17/2011
The only thing keeping the Mxican economy afloat is the money illegals send home and the dope money flowing from the US to Mexico. Close down the border, stop the dope money and Mexico collapes like a house of cards.

Don't believe? Then why does the Mexico Gov fight so hard to keep the border unfettered?
09:32 AM on 07/17/2011
It is local county property owners who get stuck with the costs of welfare, healthcare and education for illegal aliens. The Feds have not funded enforcement because it costs them nothing. States need to protect themselves from being overrun and bankrupted by those who's only claim to fame is a proven ability to sneak across the border and break the law. It is estimated that there are about 12 million lawbreakers already in the United States who need to be deported at their own expense immediately.
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runswithscissors
I think, therefore I am not a conservative
06:57 PM on 07/16/2011
You have to wonder if the drug war has played any part in the slow down as well. Over 30000 people have been killed, and some of the most violent areas have been border cities.
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Picosa
dedicated to FACTS & TRUTH
03:53 PM on 07/16/2011
Almost every day now, it's possible to hear supposedly authoritative "facts" about illegal immigration and immigrants bandied about by politicians, major media commentators and even allegedly objective news reporters — statistics and other assertions that paint a frightening picture of hostile, disease-carrying and highly criminal Latino "aliens" bringing economic ruin to the United States

It's no longer uncommon to hear false or distorted statistics and half-truths coming from more mainstream groups like FAIR,( Federation for American Immigration Reform,) and The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, and aired on innumerable radio talk shows and major cable programs like the Fox News Channel's "The O'Reilly Factor."

Very few of the current roster of negative stereotypes — not to mention the conspiracy theories about immigration that are also increasingly widespread — contain any truth at all.

Today in an even more poisonous atmosphere, millions of Americans apparently believe the lies touted by nativist extremists. What follows is an attempt to distinguish demonizing propaganda from reality.

http://www.splcenter.org/get-informed/intelligence-report/browse-all-issues/2007/summer/paranoid-style-redux/getting-immigrat
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Picosa
dedicated to FACTS & TRUTH
02:43 PM on 07/16/2011
As long as the U.S. government and U.S. corporations keep sucking the wealth out of Mexico, Mexicans will be forced to follow it here.

The FBI and the DEA have offices in several Mexican cities. In February 2010, spokespeople for de facto president Calderón admitted that U.S. agents were active in Ciudad Juárez. The number of U.S. military contractors sent to Mexico has increased during Calderón’s administration. There are videos of contractors who have trained Mexican police taking part in the torture of prisoners. In 2008, U.S. involvement in Mexico took the form of that business enterprise called Blackwater. Exposed for its crimes against humanity in Iraq, it has changed its name to Xe Services. It came to “help” Calderón in his supposed war against the narcotraffic.

Five transnational corporations control the U.S. mass media for imperialist interests and say nothing or spread lies about the people’s uprisings in Mexico and the Mexican immigrants in the United States. This is because the U.S. government is focusing its sights on the rising Mexican opposition in order to gain greater control over Mexican oil, minerals, uranium, water, biodiversity, and immigrant labor. And it wants to keep immigrant labor cheap, and so aligns with the Mexican business elite and its government.

http://www.alternet.org/books/149489/what_are_the_u.s.%27s_real_motives_for_launching_a_drug_war_in_mexico?page=entire
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looneydoone
not a "cookie"
02:22 PM on 07/25/2011
Picosa
Read Manu Dornbierer's column (Satiricosas) "The Big Stick War" dated Sat 23 July 2011
She lays it out, perfectly...and excoriates US Foreign Policy and Madame Secretary for purposely destabilizing Mexico (Honduras, Ecuador, Colombia, Bolivia, and Peru) for geopolitical advantage and "economic interests"
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phoenixdoglover
My dog loves my progressive treats agenda
01:55 PM on 07/16/2011
So many people have a dated and inaccurate view of the Mexican economy. Read here fro a little background information http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Mexico And for all of you who think remittances (cash sent back to Mexico from the US) is propping up their economy, think again. It is estimated to be 2 to 3% of the GDP. Not a small number, but not exactly the huge subsidy some people think it is.
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OntheBorder
Part of the 47% that pays taxes
09:43 AM on 07/17/2011
Add another 65 Billion in dope money and it becomes real money.
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OntheBorder
Part of the 47% that pays taxes
09:55 AM on 07/17/2011
Ha..Ha..Ha.....Wiipedia does not even mention the dope money which 4 times the illegal remittance amount.

Between the illegal's remittance and dope money war talking 12 to 15 % of the Mexican economy.

Take that away and Mexico collapses like a house of cards.
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noaxe397
12:36 PM on 07/16/2011
http://washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/2011/07/immigration-mexico-down-close-zero Another perspective on all this hot rhetoric. What WILL conservatives rant about now that THIS bogey man issue is starting to fade?
11:59 PM on 07/16/2011
There will be no end to the boogeymen until america grows a backbone and remembers those famous words of Ben Franklin about security and liberty.