Cost Benefit Analysis

Posted September 23, 2007 | 04:28 PM (EST)



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The War in Iraq has cost about $453,000,000,000 (four hundred and fifty-three billion dollars) to date.

That's pretty hard to grasp. Especially on my income and probably on yours. Let's bring that home and make it a little more understandable.

I live in Ulster County, New York. Our share of that is $372,000,000 (three hundred and seventy-two million dollars).

If you live in Los Angeles, your bill is $4,823,000,000 (four billion, eight hundred twenty-three million). Savannah, Georgia, $144,000,000. Little Rock, Arkansas, $339,000,000. That's how much you're putting in so far. It keeps ticking away at two billion dollars a week. If you live somewhere else and want to know how much it's costing your city or county, go to costofwar.com.

You might also want to do what they suggest. Imagine what could have been done with that much money. The schools, bridges, medical care, playgrounds.


What did we get for our money?

The original deal - as presented to us - was to disarm Saddam Hussein for $50 billion. If we didn't do it right away, the smoking gun would be a mushroom cloud.

Bizarre, but true, that was actually accomplished. And for far less. It wasn't difficult, since Saddam was already disarmed. But by massing our troops and demanding UN resolutions, Saddam was forced to let the inspectors in so that we got to see it for ourselves.


But the administration was set on war! We're not actually sure why. Perhaps they aren't either. So they told us that the inspectors were associated with the UN. They were Swiss or French or some other foreigners, and therefore, unlike Americans, they were easily conned. Their failure to find WMDs didn't mean there weren't any. It really meant that Saddam was super tricky as well as super evil.

So the goal slipped from disarming Saddam to removing Saddam.

Removing Saddam was going to be a magic moment. It was going to be like a Disney animated feature. When the ogre was slain, the entire kingdom would break out with flowers and the flowers would dance and sing. And welcome the Americans as liberators!


That's not all we were going to get for our investment. We were going to get much, much more!

We would strike a blow in the war on terror! Keep (non-existent) weapons of mass destructions out of the hands of a dictator who might give them to terrorists. Establish a democracy in the Middle East. Bring stability to the region and hope to other people under evil dictators. Make Israel safer.

Most of all it would be a demonstration!

We would smite our foe like the Lord God Almighty, throwing thunderbolts and parting the very seas, so that all who saw would quake in fear and tremble before us. That's the colorful, theological version, but it is, in fact, what the administration expected.


We were a beneficent power, too. We were going to rebuild Iraq. George Bush said it was going to be "The greatest financial commitment of it's kind since the Marshall Plan!"

Was that going to cost us more?

No. "We are dealing with a country that can really finance its own reconstruction, and relatively soon," said the ever astute Paul Wolfowitz, deeply knowledgeable about third world countries, war and finance. 'What a deal,' as they used to say, throwing in a second pair of pants and a genuine silk tie, when you bought your Bar Mitzvah suit down on Orchard Street.

But it wasn't a Disney movie. The commander-in-chief and his crew were wrong in their assumptions and incompetent in execution.

If they stop, they will have to admit that we got nothing for our money. If they go forward, it's not their money. Or their bodies. While it's not be in our interests, its in their interests to turn the war into the Energizer Bunny, endlessly, mindlessly, going and going and going.


One question that should be asked, but hasn't been, is where did the money actually go?

The answer is that nobody really knows.

To give you some idea of how bad the book keeping is, the Congressional Budget Office reported that from 2001 to 2006 we had spent 290 billion dollars on the war in Iraq. But the Congressional Records Office had the number at $318.5 billion dollars. A gap of 28.5 billion.

The Government Accounting Office said that because of the way the Department of Defense handles its money, "neither DOD nor the Congress reliably know how much the war is costing and how appropriated funds are being used."

We don't even know how many troops are deployed to Iraq. One Defense Department system says 260,000, another says 207,000, and the DFAS, who does their payrolls, says 202,000. A difference of as much as 58,000 troops.

The Armed Forces have been so privatized that General Patraeus is not guarded by soldiers, but by private contractors.

When we pass a bill for billions to 'support the troops,' we have no way of knowing how many troops we're supporting or how much money is supporting them. It would be at least as accurate to say it's a bill to support Halliburton, Blackwater and the General's private security guards.


George Bush's version of the Marshall Plan, the reconstruction, is even worse. Paul Bremer III burned through - an estimated - forty billion dollars. Billions were handed out in cash. People were playing football with shrink wrapped bricks of $100 bills.

Nobody knows where the money went.

Nor has there been much reconstruction. There is less electrical service than before the war. There are fewer functioning schools, hospitals and medical facilities. There is no one to staff them if they had been built, since so many of the people with skills have been killed or driven out of the country. Water and waste treatment is so inadequate that a cholera epidemic is appearing.

A cost-benefit analysis would say that what we have achieved is in the minus column. That we spent forty billion dollars to get deconstruction.


Alright, there was waste, corruption and profiteering on a grand scale. Alright, the Iraqis didn't get anything for money, except hundreds of murderous, petty tyrants to replace one, grand, bloody dictator. But what did we get for our money?

We didn't get rid of the WMDs, because they weren't there.

We got rid of Saddam Hussein. He was replaced by a nominal democracy, but an actual chaos. Murder, rape, gang violence, civil war, revenge killings, semi-tribal war, have become the norm.

Al Qaeda not only survived, it got stronger.

The Middle East is less stable.

Israel looks more vulnerable.

Iran has been strengthened.

Instead of being a demonstration of irresistible power, the war exposed the limits of American power.

Iraq has become the textbook on how an insurgency can defeat a major power.

George Bush said this was a war for civilization. In the course of it, we have rejected the Geneva Conventions, the Nuremberg Principles, and the rule of law. We have embraced torture, failed to protect and provide for civilians in a country under our occupation and allowed the monuments and treasures of an ancient civilization to be looted and destroyed. Who is it that's fighting for civilization?


Has anyone benefited from this war? Yes.

Before the war Halliburton was facing bankruptcy. Now they're doing very well, along with a host of other military contractors.

The really big winners are Iran and Al Qaeda.

Osama bin Laden was a murderous madman, an outlaw hiding the caves of Tora Bora. Now Al Qaeda has a new base in Iraq and controls at least one province. His goal was to get America into a war like the one the Soviets fought, and lost, in Afghanistan. Which he did. He also wanted an actual world wide conflict between Islam and the West. He got that too.

Iran wanted Saddam Hussein gone. To have Shia'a groups, with ties to Iran, come to power afterward. For America to be weakened and to have its forces tied down so they could pursue their nuclear ambitions. They got all that.


As I wrote this, I heard a story on the radio about a kid from Saugerties - which is the next little town over from here - who got both legs blown off in Iraq. I didn't catch his name. I'm sorry. He's one of the 25,830 that the DOD reported as officially wounded. Along with 3500 US dead. The 650,000 Iraqi dead. No one counts their wounded. Millions driven into exile.


Those are some of the costs. Now you know who benefited.


Larry Beinhart is the author of Wag the Dog, The Librarian, and Fog Facts: Searching for Truth in the Land of Spin. All available at nationbooks.org Responses can be sent to beinhart@earthlink.net

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- SmokeyBones See Profile I'm a Fan of SmokeyBones permalink

Your estimate of the cost of the war at two billions dollars a week (or by your resource) may be well underestimated. Just one section of the DOD is spending nearly 2 billion a day on contract payments. In one section. There are plenty other sections making more payments. And then there's the direct cost of more military personnel, more civilian personnel, overtime, additional benefits---just to name a few. These costs are so well hidden or embedded that a true cost of the war may never be captured.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:08 PM on 09/24/2007
- LeftRight See Profile I'm a Fan of LeftRight permalink

Another way to look at the financial costs of the Iraq war is through time. One Billion seconds, divided by 60 seconds in a minute, divided by 60 minutes in an hour, divided by 24 hours in a day, divided by 365.25 days in a year(to allow for the leap year every four years) works out this way:
1,000,000,000/60=16,666,666.667 Minutes
16,666,666.667/60=277,777.778 Hours
277,777.778/24=11,574.074 Days
11,574.074/365.25=31.688 Years.

So at the rate of one dollar per second, $435,000,000,000 would take 13,784.32 Years, or more than twice all of human history!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:14 AM on 09/24/2007
- vippy See Profile I'm a Fan of vippy permalink

59.5 trillion dollar of our national debt is
$ 33,000 per year for every American including babies for the next 75 years. And you are not
concerned yet?

Keep believing the numbers provided to us by
the Bush Administration.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:26 AM on 09/24/2007
- SRegnet See Profile I'm a Fan of SRegnet permalink

I would be VERY CONCERNED. The national debt
has grown enormously under Reagan, George Bush I,
and now George Bush II. You should recall that
Dick Cheney has said 'deficits don't matter' (even
though Greenspan disagreed).

Unfortunately, IN THE LONG RUN, deficits do
matter, just not to anyone currently alive.

If you believe they don't matter, let's get
us another Republican President. If they do
matter, we need to ELECT MORE DEMOCRATS,
as they end up being more responsible about
governing.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:29 AM on 09/24/2007
- ultracrepidarian See Profile I'm a Fan of ultracrepidarian permalink

Cost to date________Iraqi Population
$454,118,699,021 / 27,499,638 Iraqis = $16,513.62 per Iraqi citizen

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:30 AM on 09/24/2007
- realitytrumpsbull See Profile I'm a Fan of realitytrumpsbull permalink

Oh, come ON, 978 quinzillion bajillion billion, hell, that's POCKET change! Why, we just keep
adding on zeroes over here, and it'll all work out! Just keep tapping that button, we'll be right back...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:12 AM on 09/24/2007
- skindoggy See Profile I'm a Fan of skindoggy permalink

Great post Larry....
But you forgot to note the $12 billion of cash that was airlifted in the early days of the war (over 1 ton of cash, literally) that was never really accounted for...See link below

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,2008189,00.html


Skindoggy

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:31 AM on 09/24/2007
- SRegnet See Profile I'm a Fan of SRegnet permalink

As the Guardian article point out, it was
Iraqi money anyway, so not on 'our' books:

'The memorandum details the casual manner in which the US-led Coalition Provisional Authority disbursed the money, which came from Iraqi oil sales, surplus funds from the UN oil-for-food programme and seized Iraqi assets.'

The Iraqi funds had been in US banks, in accounts
frozen by the US government, then released so
as to 'jump start' their economy. Instead, they
stole it. What a surprise!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:19 AM on 09/24/2007
- ultracrepidarian See Profile I'm a Fan of ultracrepidarian permalink

A bit more than "over a ton", it was 363 tons of hundred dollar bills.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:11 AM on 09/24/2007
- Roger4 See Profile I'm a Fan of Roger4 permalink

Great piece but is it going to make a difference? Does any of what any of us say make a difference? Our Congress gives in to Bush and will probably vote for his next Iraq war installment. When we will come to our senses. By the way, the is also a huge cost in terms of Iraqi lives, possible more than Saddam himself was guilty of killing. We are taking our economy down. Does the rest of the world care? Surely, it would not be good for anyone to see our economy fail.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:35 PM on 09/23/2007
- PADDYWHACK See Profile I'm a Fan of PADDYWHACK permalink

Those who wish us ill are delighted that shrub is at the wheel or he's sitting in Cheney's lap making motor noises.Our friends are scared to death to open their mouths to our capricious dain bramaged leadership.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:35 AM on 09/24/2007
- SRegnet See Profile I'm a Fan of SRegnet permalink

By comparison, WW2 cost the US $2 trillion
(in 1990 dollars), so the Iraq war is relatively
inexpensive (considering it's taking longer
than WW2 did).

Nikita Khrushchev told Dick Nixon that American capitalists
would 'sell us the rope we will hang them with.' It's almost as if the
Chinese (& others) have topped this, by lending us the funds so that
we may do the job ourselves.

What to do? ELECT MORE DEMOCRATS in 2008.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:08 PM on 09/23/2007
- Jericho See Profile I'm a Fan of Jericho permalink

Elect more democrats, are you kidding?! Do you mean democrats like Hillary or democrats like Edwards? Because, if you mean democrats like Obama, you're dreaming. There are no democrats with spine. If there were, Bush would have never been in power to begin with, mkay?! The solution is to kick the public a conscience.... if you expect the solution from politicians, you're as out of touch as Bush himself.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:48 AM on 09/24/2007
- SRegnet See Profile I'm a Fan of SRegnet permalink

As was pointed out on Ken Burns promising
'The War' last night (I believe), adjusted
for current dollars, WW2 is now up to $3T.
The military of that era may have had great
expertise, but armaments were of lower
technology back then & no doubt cheaper
(til the end - the a-bomb was hideously
expensive, but quite cost-effective no doubt).
Modern warfare is especially asymmetric in
terms of cost: guerrilla warfare may be
cheaper for the guerrillas, but not for
their opponents.


As for the Chinese, not only will they lend
us money for the rope, they will actually
make it also, and perhaps provide customer
service too.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:04 AM on 09/24/2007
- PADDYWHACK See Profile I'm a Fan of PADDYWHACK permalink

.SR,you're right,European asymmetric combatants knew the cost of their actions on the economy to the dollar.Luckily for us we are faced with ideology alone.I hope they don't recruit any professionals.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:35 PM on 09/24/2007
- PADDYWHACK See Profile I'm a Fan of PADDYWHACK permalink

SR,they voted for this too,and have no intention of stopping it.In flating our way out of it will cost us all dearly,excellent post.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:28 AM on 09/24/2007
- yukoner1 See Profile I'm a Fan of yukoner1 permalink

Just a quibble about the comparison to WWII. That war involved fighting two of the best armed and trained armies in history, not a third rate, ragtag bunch in a decimated country of 25 million.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:47 AM on 09/24/2007
- wldnswmmr See Profile I'm a Fan of wldnswmmr permalink

A tour de force, Mr. Beinhart, on the cost to America of the great Iraqi debacle. I don't see how any of your principal points can even be seriously debated. Virtually every one of them can be substantiated by reference to nonpartisan government sources (GAO, etc). I think in the long run we will also see that the Iraq and Afghan wars broke the economic back of the United States as well. We were at a point, in 2001, where fiscal restraint was absolutely critical if we were going to be in a position to meet the entitilements challenges of 2015 and beyond. Instead, we embarked on two wars, increased a bloated military budget to ridiculous levels, and increased the national debt by one-half trillion per year. The dollar is now in peril, we're at the mercy of foreign holders of dollar denominated assets and we don't have the money to shore up Social Security and Medicare. The wars were colossal "mistakes" intended only to enrich corporate interests with close ties to the Bush Admin at the expense of the welfare of the USA. Nothing about the offical rationales, as floated by the Bush gang, should ever be taken at face value by true patriots.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:18 PM on 09/23/2007
- ToniAnnie See Profile I'm a Fan of ToniAnnie permalink

Thank you so much. Of all the war and spending summaries I've read -- yours might be the best -- and thus, the hardest to swallow. Thank you for putting it all together in a clear, concise, and to-the-point manner.

My questions is: How much MORE angry and outraged can the citizens be before our representatives actually DO something to stop this?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:49 PM on 09/23/2007
- Doofus See Profile I'm a Fan of Doofus permalink

Not to worry. Since the national debt went
up $3 trillion in the past 6 years, it looks
like we've paid for the entire war on credit.

Our descendants will be all but too happy
to pay the tab.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:54 PM on 09/23/2007
- OldKnute See Profile I'm a Fan of OldKnute permalink

Well, Yes.

And please remember the 5 Trillion Dollar surplus that was plopped into George Bushs lap when he took office.

GOSH!

That takes to over 8 Trillion Dollars in 6 and a half years.

How many hospitals, schools, libraries, community centers, Parks, Playgrounds, or senior citizen homes would that have built?

I was also thinking about Katrina.

120 BILLION went there.

Humm?

A billion is,, one,,, thousand,,, million.

Now, what if we had just written checks to all the Katrina survivors, say,,, a million each.

That would mean 120 THOUSAND Millionaires running around Bourbon Street.

NOW!

If we let loose 120,000 Millionaires in New Orleans, asked them to organize, do you think the levies might had gotten built stronger and faster?

I do!

All the best

Knute (Neo-LIB)

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:07 PM on 09/23/2007
- PADDYWHACK See Profile I'm a Fan of PADDYWHACK permalink

Be careful oldknute,Chamberlain made the same calculus-by not continuing to build battleships they could improve the lives of the poor.All the ships were sunk in a few days of the outbreak of war and made no difference anyway.Chamberlain has become the whipping boy of the NeoCoots I wonder how history will treat them?.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:24 AM on 09/24/2007
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