Social scientists may succeed at explaining events retrospectively, but when they venture into the realm of forecasting, they are on shaky ground. It is very hard to get into the minds of individual actors and predict what they will do. Last Friday (January 28) I predicted that Hosni Mubarak would be gone from power within a week to ten days. By late last week it was obvious that the peaceful mobilization of the Egyptian people for democratic change had crossed a point of no return; it would not cease until Mubarak was gone and a credible path of transition was laid out. As corrupt and repressive as his thirty years of rule have been, I did not expect that Mubarak would choose to abandon every last shred of patriotism and simply brutalize his own people to hang on to power -- as nastily as he needs to.
No one can seriously doubt that the thuggery and brutal violence unleashed today on peaceful protesters in the streets of Cairo is being orchestrated by the Mubarak regime, on orders (explicit or implicit) of the president himself. Many of the goons who are beating up democratic protesters with abandon have been recognized as police officers in plain clothing. Others are the kind of lumpen proletariat that autocracies scoop up in a last-ditch effort to survive: convicted violent criminals, poorly educated young unemployed men, and no small number of sadists, sycophants, and psychopaths.
As Fouad Ajami, one of the keenest observers of the Arab world, observed tonight on CNN as the violent assaults were proceeding, this is now a bare-knuckles struggle between the forces of democracy and the forces of autocracy, with fateful consequences for the entire Arab world. If Egypt's peaceful mobilization for democracy fails, "then we return to the only other language we know in the Arab world, the language of blood."
The bloodbath that is now unfolding in Egypt is not only a tragedy for that country. It risks becoming a national security disaster for the United States, particularly if the Egyptian people (who are not immune to conspiracy theories) come to believe that the U.S. has tacitly encouraged the crackdown, despite its lofty appeals for prompt and peaceful political change. If the assault on innocent Egyptian civilians continues, it may buy Mubarak and his venal loyalists some time, but at the risk of radicalizing much of the population and propelling the country toward deepening chaos and even an Algerian-style civil war. Sustained bloody repression will inevitably radicalize many young Egyptians. Popular mobilization that was admirable in its pluralism, moderation and discipline will find it much harder to resist the impulse toward violence and extremism in response.
There is very little time left to prevent a disaster in Egypt. The stakes for the United States -- and its reputation throughout the Arab world -- are now so profound that the Obama administration can no longer wrap its appeals for restraint and democratic change in diplomatic politesse. President Obama must now decisively and publicly separate the United States from the Mubarak regime and identify squarely with the people protesting peacefully for democratic change. Egypt's army leadership -- ironically, the last hope for rescuing the course of peaceful political change -- should be quietly told that a complete suspension of U.S. military aid is imminent if the violence is not brought to a halt. If Mubarak survives in power and continues the bloody assault on his people, the Obama administration should suspend all economic and military assistance to Egypt and impose targeted sanctions on anyone in the regime associated with the repression.
This is how we have treated pariah regimes like Zimbabwe, Burma, and Sudan. And that is what Mubarak's rule is becoming in its final, ugly days.
Susan Morgan: Sudan Bombs While White House Talks
Come on now faithul Progressives... "THINK".
You don't dump your ally in public.
You do it quietly but make it clear that stabilization comes before reform.
When you backstab your allies you make matters worse.
However, since Bill Clinton repealed Glass-Steagall, leading to the bail outs, leading to Ben Bernanke implementing QE (quantative easing), causing a worldwide food crisis, the Clintons, who have advised this president to keep their failed and disastrous policy legacy in tact, should be removed from government. - PERIOD.
...then the President should follow them out the door.
And replaced these policies, which have helped to create the mass poverty and concentration of wealth Egyptians have taken to the streets over, with economic policies much more responsive to the actual needs of the Egyptian people?
Just wondering....
Where is a true leader and President now that we need one. I would even take back Bill Clinton before I let this Obama bozoo mess things up more.
Community organizing does not prepare you for things like this...
We have allowed our emotions to rule our pragmatic side. We can see clearly now where this has brought us. The voices of corporate spinners are still shouting, impersonating "persons". We the people speak different words.
Mr. Ajami is a very bright man indeed. He is, however, much better at post-mortem analysis than predicting the future. He was after all the one who opined to Mr. Cheney that the "streets of Baghdad would erupt in joy" once our troops rid them of Saddam Hussein.
The mobs in the streets, are they the voice of the nation or now the voice of radical dangerous extremism! They are demanding the President shut down the government or just that he leaves. The President, while a powerful man is not the government and his removal does not mean any thing will change.
To go back to democratic demands the mob in the street now needs to demand free open elections run by out of country administration that allows all parties to put individuals into government. They could demand the elections take place in 90 days, but from what I am seeing is both sides in the riots are afraid of democracy and what the new government may look like.
Western pundits like Mr Diamond have assured us that, since the elections were unfair and unfree, that only about 1/2 percent of Egyptians support the government and want their streets and their normal daily lives back.