Next up in the presidential primary parade are Rhode Island, Vermont, and the two states that have everyone talking, Ohio and Texas.
While nobody could have guessed how the primary contests would shake out, it seems fitting that the Lone Star State is now gearing up for one of the biggest contests of the season; one that could easily send some of the candidates packing.
Theories abound as to winners, with some even saying that Huckabee could win the Texas primary, although most doubt he will even come close to front-runner McCain. Most analysts, in fact, have already called the GOP nomination for McCain due to his comfortable 723 delegate advantage over Huckabee.
Not so with the Democrats, who are claustrophobically close in the polls. One common belief is that with 126 delegates at stake in the Democratic primary, Clinton (who is trailing Obama by roughly 153 pledged delegates) cannot afford to lose Texas.
That sounds simple, right? Win the votes and you're done.
Yet the election system in the Lone Star State is anything but simple, prompting Texas' own Representative, Juan Garcia, to tell the Houston Chronicle that Texas has "arguably, the most arcane system in the country."
Here's a rundown of Texas' hybrid primary/caucus system some have labeled the "Primacus."
Texas has 228 delegates to send to the Democratic National Convention. However, only 126 delegates will be allocated in the March 4th primary from 31 State Senate Districts. Another 67 delegates will be chosen via the caucuses (those results, however, will not be know until June) and the final 35 are Superdelegates.
The "Texas Two-Step"
There are two steps involved in allocating delegates in the Texas election system. Delegates are apportioned between voting in the primary, and caucusing. Voting in the primary takes place at the polls during the day, while the caucuses will start after the polls close that same evening.
Only voters, who voted at the polls, or through early voting, are eligible to caucus for their candidate. Voters will receive a stamp on their voter id cards when they vote in the primary, which will then allow them access to the caucuses in the evening.
Here'sa great resource for finding polling locations and general FAQ, and a spreadsheet -courtesy of the hard-working team at the Burnt Orange Report- that shows how the 126 Democratic delegates will be allotted after the polls close on March 4th.
Simple? Not so fast. It's the allotment of delegates that's confusing.
The number of delegates assigned to each Senate District is based on numbers from voter turnout in the 2006 race for Governor and the 2004 Presidential race. The system, in essence, rewards districts that have higher voter participation.
For instance, Travis County, home to the State Capitol of Austin, gets 8 delegates-more than any other district-due to the high voter turnout among Democrats for John Kerry in 2004 & for Chris Bell in the 2006 race for Governor.
In light of the unusual election rules in Texas Senators Obama and Clinton have been working overtime to develop strategies for winning the state. But - like in many of the other states this primary season - Obama seems to have the superior ground game, having learned the rules of the Texas system months ahead of time. In contrast, Clinton's team has admitted to finding out about the crazy Texas rules just weeks ago.
This is not a good sign for Clinton, not only because she seems to be woefully behind on her approach to a state many say she must win, but because it highlights her lack of organization skills and foresight. Clinton has not showcased her ability to organize and manage very effectively, which could be a big blow if she does lose another state to Obama.
My own very unscientific study done today while researching online was telling, in it's own small way. Google results for the phrase "Clinton Learns Strategy Texas"-yields this in third place , whereas "Obama Learns Strategy Texas" yields this third place result.
This experiment, however simple and flawed, seems to highlight the recurring theme between these campaigns; organization pays off in the long run.
Republicans Don't Two-Step...
The Republican Primary is not nearly as complicated in Texas, with only a primary election to deal with. Delegate allocation is also a breeze for the GOP because the candidate who wins more than 50% of the vote in each district wins all the district's delegates.
Republicans have 138 total delegates.
Texas Secretary of State Phil Wilson, among others, has predicted record voter turnout on March 4th. "The number of voters participating in the Texas primaries is greater than anything we have seen before," Wilson has said. "If the voting trends continue through Election Day, Texas will set a record for turnout in a primary election with 3.3 million Texans casting a ballot."
Early voting ends on Friday, February 29th and as of Tuesday 511,809 democrats have voted early - more than 4 times the turnout in 2004. Over 173,000 Republicans have also taken advantage of early voting in Texas.
I honestly don't understand why the Democrats have to make their system so hard. It was the same in Washington State where the Republican system is far more straightforward and easy to grasp.
It makes me wonder if anyone has ever switched parties for ease of voting. And since Texas has an open primary, meaning voters don't have to register by party, some are predicting we will see a GOP turnout in the Democratic primary. But it's probably safe to say it won't be because of the Texas Democrat's day-long primacus.