Joe Lieberman will drop out. He probably knows right now that the day will come in late September when he will announce his withdrawal from the race. No one is going to have to talk him into it. By that time, the Democratic Party power structure will be doing its thing for Ned Lamont and Lieberman will be trailing by double digits. It won't be a hard decision for Lieberman. He will drop out to avoid career-ending humiliation.
Lieberman came within four points of Lamont by climbing up on the shoulders of the biggest names in the party including Clinton--Bill and Hillary. Lieberman's TV commercial starring Bill Clinton was his best. Now, both Clintons and everyone else in the Party are carrying Lamont on their shoulders. By late September, Bill Clinton will be onstage hugging his new best friend and starring in Lamont commercials. Connecticut's much better liked senator, Chris Dodd, will be campaigning for Lamont this time. The Clinton and Dodd defections will cost Lieberman ten points in Connecticut. If Dick Cheney continues to say nice things about Lieberman, it'll cost him another ten points. And Lieberman campaigning alone, all alone, will look bitter, very bitter. His smile will look faker than ever. Voters aren't drawn to bitter.
Lieberman is going to have one very big news day in late September and he'll milk it for all its worth. That's all his independent candidacy is going to be about--stage-managing his own exit. He didn't want an eighteen year Senate career to disappear under 'Lamont Wins' headlines. He wanted his own news day, his own headline. He knows how and when to get it.