Five Reasons NBC's Leno Move Is Brilliant

Usually the comment thread on a subject like this turns into a referendum on which late night personality people like best or hate most, spiked with the occasional person bragging that they don't watch TV at all.

I'd ask you to forget who you like or don't like for a moment and realize that everyone who currently hosts a late night TV show has their appeal to consistently large audience segments. The trick here is not to think like a fan but like a businessperson. By that standard, NBC's bold move of giving Jay Leno five nights a week in primetime is the smartest thing they've done in years. Here's why...

1) Less Programming Works, Higher Margins Are Better

For several years now, Fox has generally been the number one network. They have just two hours of programming per night and they don't seem to be in any hurry to add a third hour. Everyone considers them a broadcast network.

Less programming has worked to get Fox ratings but ratings aren't the only thing on NBC's mind. NBC Entertainment co-chair Ben Silverman recently described a strategy that is more based on profit margins then ratings. In other words, which would you rather have from a business perspective - the show with the higher ratings or the show that makes the most money?

Bear this idea of margins vs ratings in mind next time you hear Les Moonves brag that CSI will crush Leno. NBC may replace that Law And Order DA-WOOOOOOM sound with the sound of a cash register cha-ching.

2) Do What You Do Best

This is NBC playing to its obvious and entrenched strengths. The most two most profitable shows on NBC are The Today Show and The Tonight Show. These are decades old franchises that are as essential to the NBC brand as the Big Mac is to McDonald's or as Tide detergent is to P&G. If you want an equivalent show at another network in terms of brand importance, it's probably 60 Minutes at CBS. Of course, CBS tried to clone 60 Minutes a few years ago and it only proved it's a very hard show to clone, especially when you've decimated the news department.

Putting Leno in at 10pm allows NBC to double down on The Tonight Show. In name, there will only be one Tonight Show and Conan will be hosting it. The prime time Leno show won't be exactly the same show but it's really as close to a viable clone of a show that already works as one can imagine. If this move works, when Jay does decide to retire don't be surprised if Conan ends up in the prime time slot.

3) Jay Leno At ABC Would Have Been A Disaster For NBC
Here was the scenario NBC was facing and it wasn't pretty. It's Fall 2009. Jay has been sent packing and he's moved two blocks down Alameda Avenue to the Disney lot at ABC. (There have been whispered rumors in Burbank for months now that a stage there was already being readied for Jay.) Now, it's Conan on NBC vs. Dave on CBS vs. Jay on ABC.

This would have been a dream scenario for Leno and ABC and a nightmare for NBC. Speaking broadly, Jay's appeal is more working class and plays to middle of the country. Conan and Dave play to roughly the same audience - people on the coasts with a taste for smart alec, frat boy humor..

The Leno audience would follow him to ABC while Letterman and Conan split Letterman's current audience, which is already smaller to begin with. In this case, Leno's audience lead over Letterman would actually grow and Conan and The Tonight Show franchise would end up in third place. There's a vicious cycle here, as the larger Leno audience allows it better leverage to book guests. Any celebrities doing the media rounds in California would have had to choose whether their limo stops at number one Leno or down the street with number three Conan.

Now, the lose-lose for NBC is avoided. Moving Leno to Conan's early lead-in will create a stronger Conan Tonight Show by allowing him the breathing room to adjust to the earlier time slot and build his own audience. (Probably won't be seeing the masturbating bear as much.)

4) No Drama Leno Is A Good Guy To Be In Business With
This move makes NBC more immune to the cutthroat contract drama and infighting that often ends up happening on scripted series - particularly those one hour dramas that are usually in the 10pm time slot. You know the scenario - a show gets big in the ratings and the actors all want more money, eventually driving the production costs through the roof. Even casual TV viewers hear about stories from shows like Desperate Housewives or CSI or ER or...almost any of them, really.

Jay Leno is about as drama free as you'll find in the entertainment industry. He's well known for not having an agent or manager and he negotiates his own contracts by going into the room with executives and walking out with a deal. In the press conference on Wednesday, Leno made it clear that he's not interested in trying to be the best compensated person in show business because he feels he already makes a great living. The Big Three Automakers CEOs could take more than one lesson from Leno, including the one about driving themselves to work.

5) It's A Chance For Jay 2.0
One interesting possibility of the show is that it gives Leno and NBC a way to get a little viral video street cred. The topical nature of the show is part of this but I think it really depends on how much Leno and his staff decide to experiment.

Leno said Wednesday that the format of the 10pm show would be different from the The Tonight Show format but he wasn't sure in what way yet. One smart tactic would be to follow the lead of Saturday Night Live's 'Digital Short' series, which has spawned viral video hits like Lazy Sunday, Dick In A Box, and the latest Genitals-In-Something themed sensation Jizz In My Pants. If Leno can get a team or two of talented, hungry young video comedians and give them a little bit of free reign to create original pieces, he could not only create a new 'must see' segment but also start to generate internet buzz in the way that segments like Jaywalking aren't able to do - that is if NBC lets anything go viral beyond their own Hulu service.

Epilouge
So there you have it. Now feel free to jump into comments and say you hate Dave or that Conan isn't funny or that you don't watch Leno or that you don't understand how anyone can stand Jimmy Kimmel or why didn't I even mention Craig Ferguson!?! That's what comments are for...

(Full disclosure : Lee Stranahan works at NBC as a graphic artist, which means nobody there is particularly interested in his opinion on much of anything. The opinions expressed are solely his and not that of his employer, their parent company, the megacorporation that owns the parent company or Marianna at the commissary.)

Follow Lee Stranahan on Twitter: www.twitter.com/Stranahan

Comments

[readmewell22]

It was a good move. I can not stand Conan O's show. He is constantly shoving unfunny-ga­y-gags-str­ange-as-ca­n-be, down one's throat, every chance he gets. In my opinion, he is too strange, and extremely boring to watch. His interviewing skills are horrible. He can't be serious for two seconds. So the thought of No Leno was very disconcerning. Good move NBC.

[countfloyd]

If CBS had any brains they would show Stewart and Colbert at 1000 on nights where they are weak in that spot. They would kill Leno in the younger demo which is what NBC cares about most. Leno does the same amount if not more of frat-boy humor as the rest of them.

[Opt1musPr1me]

This is one of those things that puzzles me about NBC and it's leaders. First of all, you don't force out the late night leader who is healthy and kicking in favor of someone younger who isn't all that funny. NBC should have never announced that Leno was being replaced by Conan Obrien. there was no reason to do that when Jay wasn't ready to go. I just think someone was bored at NBC and wanted to shake things up just to shake things up and they decided to push out Leno. I wish Leno would have turned them down and went over to FOX or ABC.

[gradybridges]

So we get Thursday comedies, Heroes which sucks, Leno and reality shows. how is this good? Look at what happened with ABC. When they taked we got Lost. Now we just get Leno. Joy :(

[jasoncinema]

Um, Letterman's production company, Worldwide Pants, does *not* produce "Late Night with Conan O'Brien". It's produced by Broadway Video, Lorne Michaels' production company, and Conaco, Conan's production company.

As for Leno at 10PM, Conan's got to feel slighted. He's back to following Leno once again. And I thought we'd finally be rid of having Leno on televison. But once again Zucker and Silverman prove their incompetence. Seriously, I cannot understand how Silverman's keeping his job. It's merely because General Electric CEO Jeff Immelt likes him. They need a fresh take on things and it looks like that'll never happen, causing NBC to sink further into the abyss. And I say this as someone who loves "Chuck", "The Office", "30 Rock", and enjoys "Heroes", i.e. I watch alot of NBC programming and NBC Nightly News and MSNBC. I'd much rather watch NBC than CBS - Criminally Banal Shows (alias "All Our Shows Are Crime-Related And Resemble Each Other"...YAWN) but a tourniquet needs to be applied, STAT, and the ship needs to be righted.

As for Jay, Leno is not, has never, and will never be funny. He's the comedy equivalent of Nerf - safe with dull edges, meant to appease soccer moms and the like. I imagine jingling car keys in front of them might have the same effect.

[Lee Stranahan - Huffpost Blogger]

Factual error corrected. Thanks.

[jasoncinema]

You're welcome. :)

[mewest3]

Of course I watch TV. That is why I spend a fortune on Dish Satellite. I have loved the Tonight Show for most of my life and now it is harder and harder to stay up for it. I love the idea of 10PM time slot!
I also liked the articled, the prologue and the disclaimer at the end. For a graphic artist dude, you are funny. Maybe Jay could give you some time on the show!?

[LeeMay]

Umm...great move for NBC, maybe, but definitely not a good move the viewing public. It's really interesting that NBCU gets to use the public airwaves to deliver less viewing product to the public while increasing their bottom-line profits. Your article assumes that the general viewing public has access to cable programming which is not true. I shouldn't have to pay for cable in order to see quality scripted programming. This whole concept is a perversion of the concept of public television. If NBCU doesn't want to provide quality programming, I suggest they get out the business and find other ways to make money.

[lilkunta]

If Leno is on M-F @ 10, does that mean SVU wont be on anymore?
Right now on Tuesday its that crap big loser show 8-10 then 10-11p SVU.
I know in Jan Mariska & Chris r supposed 2 start contract negotiations for more seasons. If NBC doesnt pay them this 10th SVU season may be the last. I think right now they earn $400,000 per ep.

[carrieanna]

I think it's a great move! I'd much rather see a well-honed entertainer than some other "unscripted" show with a bunch of untalented whiners.

Plus, this is an opportunity for Leno to mix his show up a bit. Is Kevin going with him? I hope so. I love their banter.

[kevinw]

Many people have watched either Letterman or Leno as they are getting ready for bed. It is a nice way to unwind. Nothing is really hilarious or earth shattering but it is a way to cool down after a hectic day. At 10:00 you are now competing with scripted material that was not tame enough for the family hours. The networks were already starting to feel the competition from cable. The Shield, Damages, Closer, saving Grace, Fringe are all examples of new and somewhat edgy shows that now show up on cable because they are allowed to do the shows right. That does not mean they will always succeed but it does mean that they can capture a night of programming. The Networks are acting like the car companies. What can get me the better margin right now with the least effort or talent. They should be concerned that Jay may look more like Rosie than Carson at 10:00.

[richchaplin]

I applaud NBC's decision -- even though I rarely watch Leno -- IF it means that NBC will do a better job with the scripted shows in the rest of the lineup. By "better" I mean a) sticking with quality shows until they find an audience (I miss "Journeyman"); b) stop recycling cheesy 70s shows (What's next "Miami Vice"? "Matlock"?); and c) push the envelope a bit (the upcoming "Kings" is a good start. "Life" and "Heroes" both need strong writing to recover from the strike, but remain promising).

FX, TNT and AMC have made 10 pm the hour for quality adult drama and have made it work financially. If NBC abandons the drama audience at that hour, I hope they take their savings and invest in quality from 8 pm to 10 pm.

[hosshoss777]

The booking of guests is not a problem for anybody, guests will do what they always do, get themselves booked on all the shows.
Jay Leno has been booking more of these lovable political types anyway, his monologue is simply him as a news anchor with a spin and a twist. As our Government continues to head down this path the "keep em laughin" factor will become even more essential.
Will anybody watch? Well of course. Most people probably do what I do when they want to watch TV, they look at the clock, check a TV programming list somewhere and then pick a show or a channel.
Some nights I may watch Jay Leno, some nights I won't.
I'll probably stick with Conan though at 11:35, having Leno over at ABC might have affected this, won't know at this time, maybe in a year or two though.

[mapleaforever]

Leno is unfunny and will collapse at 10PM. In Esquire magazine's "the rules" recently, was that the more memorable the hair, the less you want to know a man. That fits Conan to a T. I think he's a good writer but is too self absorbed to be funny. And Fallon? Wow, he must have pictures of somebody important in a safety deposit box somewhere. He may be the least humorous person ever to appear on television, intentional or otherwise.

[Mull]

Jay Leno is fairly boring, his guests are fairly boring, the music and skits are fairly boring. But that's okay because that's what most people want before they go to sleep. On prime time, boring is not so great. He inherited a late night audience from Johnny Carson and now it's a tradition to watch him, It is less costly certainly. But that's about the best you can say about it. There are any number of 10:00 shows I would watch before watching Leno. I don't think it will last long.

[marlovian]

Brilliant? Hey, Socrates, Jesus, Newton, Washington, Gandi, Tutu, Teresa - what a bunch of losers!