Barack Obama's Real Problem with the Jewish Vote

Now that the Democratic Primary is finally and definitively over, we will probably begin to hear even more about Barack Obama's relationship, even his problem, with Jewish voters. Barack does have a problem with Jewish voters--there aren't enough of them. Lost in all the noise about Obama's supposed problems winning Jewish support, is that the latest polls show him winning this group by a margin of almost 2-1. If this constitutes a problem, Obama should wish for such problems with Christian and other voters as well.

The Jewish vote is often misunderstood by many who think it is larger or more likely to vote Republican than it actually is. Poll data, however, indicate Jews are a small but reliably Democratic block of voters. Jews only constitute between 3-5% of the vote in a typical presidential election; and typically 70-80% of Jews vote for the Democratic presidential candidate.

In 2004, for example, according to exit polls, 74% of Jews voted for Democrat John Kerry, a higher Democratic percentage than some groups generally thought of as part of the Democratic base including Latinos, Asians, women and labor union members. African Americans and gays and lesbians were the only major demographic groups that were stronger in their support for Kerry than Jews. Kerry's showing among Jewish voters was no aberration. In fact, Kerry got a slightly smaller proportion of the Jewish vote than either Gore in 2000 (79%) or Clinton in 1996 (79%). In all three elections, the Democratic candidate got roughly the same proportion of the overall vote.

Casual followers of American politics could be forgiven for being unaware of these numbers. The media has been filled with stories about Obama's inability to win Jewish voters, fear among some Jewish voters that Obama is really a Muslim, Republican attacks on Obama as being essentially anti-Israel, and Obama's alleged connections to prominent anti-Semites such as Louis Farrakhan. Efforts to peel Jewish voters away from Obama have been somewhat successful. It is likely that the Jewish vote will not be as strongly Democratic in November as in previous cycles. Obama will probably get at least 60-70% of the vote, less than his Democratic predecessors, but still a comfortable margin.

Obama will win the Jewish vote handily because he speaks to the values of the Jewish community. While most American Jews care a great deal about Israel and will not support a candidate who does not support the State of Israel, Jews are not single issue voters. Jews, who are among the most affluent ethnic groups in the US, are, in many respects similar to lower income religious Christian white voters. Both groups are values voters; and both groups vote against the narrow interests of their economic class. The majority of Jews in America continue to vote on values, such as tolerance, equality and fairness. These values push them to the Democratic Party and its standard bearer in this election.

My point is not to write a philo-Semitic paean to Jewish liberalism, but to explore the reasons why this gap between the media coverage and the reality of the Jewish vote exists. The stubborn refusal of Jewish Americans to abandon the party of Roosevelt and Truman is a story that runs counter to the recent narratives of both the left and the right. The conservative narrative is that Jews are becoming increasingly Republican because Democrats are weak on terrorism, unconcerned about Iran and not committed to the security of Israel. George W. Bush's failure to win more than 25% of the Jewish vote in the 2004 election, where terrorism and security were the dominant issues, is not exactly consistent with this narrative. On the contrary, it suggests that appeals to Jewish voters on these issues, as framed by the Republican Party, are simply not working. In fairness, if the poll numbers hold up, Jewish support for the Democratic candidate will have declined in three straight elections, but winning one third of the Jewish vote hardly constitutes a major victory for John McCain or the Republican Party.

The conservative hope that Jews will begin voting Republican in substantial numbers, thus demonstrating the increased diversity of the Republican Party, has led conservative pundits, journalists and others to overstate Jewish support for the GOP and to try to spin, or more accurately, create, the story that Jews will not vote for Obama. This, however, is not the only reason that this notion gets the support it does in the media more broadly. Progressive rhetoric also downplays Jewish support for the Democratic Party and for the left more generally.

The progressive narrative regarding the Jewish vote is as misleading as the conservative one. This narrative describes the Democratic Party as building its base on multi-racial support and lower income whites. This is an appealing and logical narrative, but less than empirically accurate. Latinos and Asians, while at times key parts of the Democratic coalition, do not consistently support the Democratic Party in proportions comparable to Jews. Lower income whites are more accurately described as swing voters who generally split their vote between the two parties, or evince a slight preference for the Republican Party. Saying that the Democratic Party base is a coalition of African Americans, Jews, gays and lesbians, and other liberal whites is more accurate, but is presents an image of the Democratic Party that may not be appealing to key swing voters. More notably, recognizing this means recognizing that the broad progressive coalition that many on the left would like to see, has not yet come to fruition.

There are also less benign narratives why Jewish support for the Democratic Party goes unrecognized. Jews are one of the most Democratic and, yes, pro-Obama segments of the population, but this is an inconvenient reality for the disturbingly large anti-Israel and, in some cases anti-Semitic, voices in the anti-war movement and the left more generally. Those on the left who believe that the US went to war in Iraq because of Israel, or that Israel is somehow the cause of all problems in the Middle East and American foreign policy and that American Jews are somehow behind that, do not want their theories about American Jews inconvenienced by actual data regarding the political behavior of American Jews, so they ignore it.

Should McCain defy expectations and manage to defeat Obama in November, their will likely be efforts on the right to attribute that victory in some small degree to the increased Jewish support for McCain. It is even more likely that there will be voices on the left accusing American Jews of abandoning the Democratic Party in this election. That kind of irresponsible and offensive blame placing, while not grounded in reality, could quickly become accepted progressive political wisdom, have a destructive impact on progressive politics and contribute to the growth of anti-Semitism on the left. Of course, we won't have to worry about Obama losing if he develops the same problems with Christian voters that he now has with Jews.

Comments

[judy285]

Terrific article. Keep speaking the truth. It is hard to find.

[Doubtom43]

Mitchell's claim that jews are not single issue voters suffers from the prior statement that jews will not support anyone who doesn't support Israel. If that doesn't qualify for single issue voting what does? Not supporting Israel seems sufficient to negate any further consideration of a candidates worth in the eyes of these people, if we can believe what this guy writes. Unfortunately it's only too true and is borne out by the constant spectacle of ALL of our candidates groveling before AIPAC in trying to outdo each other in the expression of their love and undying devotion to Israel. It's a sickening spectacle to which the American public is always exposed whenever there is a national election.
A candidate can get away with any slight concerning domestic issues but woe on he who disregards the need to lavish praise, devotion and "unconditional support" for Israel.
Of course jews are the first to deny this fact but their denial doesn't make it any less true. The sad truth is that foreign lobbies like AIPAC have more access to our representatives than do the American citizens. And money is what is behind all that power.

[iLogos]

No, he was acknowledging that some ere like that but far and away they are multi-issue values voters.

[UrbanInterloper]

You blame the fringe left for blaming U.S. Jewry for all Middle East misery, and yet you do the same by conflating criticism of Israel with anti-Semitism. These are false premises. There is no "disturbingly large" anti-Israel or anti-Semitic group on the left. Many people rightly have a major, justified problem with certain actions of the Israeli government, just like they have major problems with Bush. They should.

Israel is not solely to blame in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but it is not blameless. Just like Bush, Israel's leaders have used reprehensible tactics and disproportionate levels of violence.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a festering wound that endangers the region and the U.S. This doesn't make Israel the solely responsible, but peace necessitates that Israel admit some culpability. It could start by condemning the violence of fundamentalist settlers, who are as armed and dangerous as Hamas militants.

"Those on the left who believe that the US went to war in Iraq because of Israel, or that Israel is somehow the cause of all problems in the Middle East and American foreign policy and that American Jews are somehow behind that, do not want their theories about American Jews inconvenienced by actual data regarding the political behavior of American Jews, so they ignore it."

The problem is not American Jews or those who blame them. The problem is that the media falsely equates AIPAC and Lieberman with pro-Israel viewpoints.

[realistic2008]

You have written an honest and objective comment.. If all sides would accept it or at least openly discuss it, it might, just might reverse the hostilities and work on a permanent solution.

[afed27]

As a Jew, I am distressed about this election. I worry about Obama's anti-Israel associates.There are some in my family who refuse to hear anything bad about Obama. They revel in voting for a black person with a large vocabulary. I would get an e-mail, "Hillary is a liar!" No facts, just the assertion. I would write, "send me proof". I got more, "You know she's a liar!", etc. When I tried to tell her [ my sister] some of Obama's wrongdoings, she blocked my name from her e-mail list & , again, told me "Hillary is a liar!" [She also voted for Bush the 1st time around.] Recently, I called her, we had a great conversation for 45 minutes, as she was hanging up, she said, "Hillary is a liar!' She is now off my e-mail list. With a mentality like that, she is a lost cause.

[Aussieposter]

Wow! The man just went to an AIPAC meeting and promised them Jerusalem, and you"re worried. My concern is that he will probably do nothing to stop the illegal settlements being built and the continual land grabs by the Israeli Authorities of Palestinian Land on the West bank.

In 1948 the original patrician plan gave 33% of the population over 50% of the land. If we apply the law of diminishing returns to this situation by 2050 The Palestinians will control about 10% of the land that was originally assigned to them and will probably be allowed to form a state in Gaza.

So I have to wonder just what your worried about. Things seem to be working out just fine for you.

[yhgtup]

I'm still trying to understand why low-income whites would vote Republican. What do they think the Rep will do for them? John McCain doesn't care about the "everyday working stiff". He voted against raising the minimum wage. He is not in favor of universal healthcare or helping American families who are losing their homes through foreclosure. He also has a horrible record on women's issues

[Tulka2]

Post-holocost Jews don't scare easy. They are steeped in stories about the holocost and what are stories but history? History cames to Jews with their mother's milk. A person is measured in Jewish culture by what they will for their neighbor when some version of Fascist comes through the door. History, my friend. I speak as an Irish woman. We also have some history and tend to be loyal Democrats too. It's knowlege of history that makes a people stand on the side of the Peoples' Party.

[bushlies]

Since I don't know any Jewish folks who aren't Democrats, I don't think this is going to be a problem.

[Garvagh]

American Jews were more likely to oppose the Iraq war than to support it. The support for Israel that comes naturally to most Americans, whether Jewish or not, should not be taken as meaning that actions of the Israeli government that appear to injure the best interests of Israel and the US, receive unquestioning ratification from the "mainstream" Jewish community in America.

[NYCrex]

Jewish vote is no prob. If the Dems couldn't get the Lieberman vote in 2000 and win, who cares now? And if it's a 20% drop, so 80%/20% in 2000 is still the same electorals as 60%/40% in Nov.

Jewish vote is a non-issue in this campaign.

[SMAGGIE]

As there are still four and a half months before the general election, remember those DELEGATES THAT GAVE THEIR SUPPORT to either candidate have the right to change their minds. That is quite a few months for ANYONE to change their mind. The dirt is still to come and lots more, so we will just have to keep up the "putting down" and very little "lifting up" on the candidates and wait and see who is the best candidate for "THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA". That still remains, huh?

[jeffp26]

I urge that 33% of my lancemon who are not indicating they will vote for Obama to think hard about making the wrong choice.

As a people, and as a cultural group, we are not aggressive warmongers. We say prayers forgiving our enemies when we literally have to kill them (or be killed ourselves).

Therefore we must support Obama, who is against unnecessary wars, and not for McCloneBush, who has no other ideas but how to kill our young kids.

[JanP]

As a Lantzman, I gave a long, hard look and I can not vote for Obama. here are my reasons:

1. I am 100% against socialism. I have relatives in France and I see what it has done to France.

2. I want us to win in Iraq. I can't vote for someone who wants us to lose. (Getting rid of Saddam was a good thing.)

3. His association with unrepentant terrorist Bil ayers can't be overlooked.

4. 20 Years in a church that is anti-White, anti-American? Then he quits because of political pressure?

5. his church's open support and admiration for Farrakhan.

6. I have no idea where he stands on Israel, Palestine and Iran. I don;t know if he does. His pro-Israel statements ae complete offset by his advisers: Brzezinski, Lake, Power, Malloy and McPeake not to mention his openly pro-Palestinian stances before he ran for national office and saw Jewish votes and Jewish money..

By the way, I knew about Rev Wright and Obama long before Fox publicized it.

I do not think that your statement saying that McCain is the same as Bush is accurate. I think Bush started out right but he screwed up the war in Iraq. I think he is battered and now indecisive.

I think that liberals, in general, do not fully understand the Jihad war agaisnt Western civilization and try to put the blame on the West.

Always remember "Never Again".

[C65]

janp,
Where did you get your crown of perfection,and what color is your wings?

[eclub]

Without you and your people, Bush would have been a Good President.

[ApolloSpeaks]

BHO LIED TO AIPAC

BHO's real problem with the Jewish vote is the truth. He will get nowhere by lying like he did last week at AIPAC when he said that he opposed the Palestinian elections which brought Hamas to power. Just shows how desperate he is to cover over his badly flawed judgement.

[AdobePhsyko]

The Jewish Vote, The Hispanic Vote, The Female Vote, The Over 55 Vote, The Black Vote, The Gay Vote, The Blue Collar Vote, The College Grad Vote, Etc. Etc.
The press ,in this country, sure think we are a bunch of Sheep.

[Doubtom43]

The main distinction among all the various voting blocs you cited, is that none of them are trying to engage us in illegal wars like the jewish vote in AIPAC has been advocating.

[Binea]

It was reported last week on Huff post that Bob Dylan even supports Obama.
Some say he is Jewish,some sayhe is born again,some say he's left some say right.Some say he is the voice of his generation ,some say of the world. he say's....
"Well, you know right now America is in a state of upheaval. Poverty is demoralising. You can't expect people to have the virtue of purity when they are poor.

"But we've got this guy out there now who is redefining the nature of politics from the ground up...Barack Obama.

"He's redefining what a politician is, so we'll have to see how things play out. Am I hopeful? Yes, I'm hopeful that things might change. Some things are going to have to."

He added: "You should always take the best from the past, leave the worst back there and go forward into the future."

[BigSid]

Bob Dylan just wants to sell records.

[ianrthorpe]

I don't doubt this, what worry me are all the reports of how well Obama is doing in hardcore Republican constiuencies. It worries me because it smells a lot like hype and five months is a long time to sustain hype.

http://greenteeth.blog.co.uk/2008/06/06/if-mccain-is-bush-lite-is-obama-bush-plu-4281372