With the midterm elections are now less than seven months away, things look very different than they did in January when Republican Scott Brown was elected to fill Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts. During those heady days for the Republican Party, conservatives believed that the Obama administration was in freefall due to the failure of the health care bill, the inability to do anything about jobs and the economy and a resurgent GOP that had struck a rich vein of voter discontent. Republican strategists had visions of 1994 and another takeover of both houses of Congress.
A lot has happened since then. Today, while the Republicans are still hoping for big gains in November, the momentum has decidedly shifted. The election of Scott Brown has turned out not to be the knockout punch for the Obama administration which many conservatives had thought, or at least hoped, it would be. However, the election of Scott Brown was a defining moment for the Obama administration and the party of which he is the leader because it forced the president and his party to choose between backing away and conceding that their agenda for change, as modest as it actually is, was too much for the American people, or redoubling their efforts and commitment to change. Obama's decision to choose the latter option may have surprised many, and flown in the face of some of the advice he received, but it was the right decision.
This decision immediately became relevant on the issue of health care as the administration, with encouragement from leadership in Congress, decided to try to pass the bill in spite of no longer controlling, even nominally, 60 Senate seats. While the bill itself should not be described as a great piece of legislation, the fight was an important one; and Obama's victory transformed his presidency. It showed America that the president was willing to fight for something and that in addition to being a brilliant man and great speaker, he could play political hardball when necessary. Thus, while the passage of the health care bill has not transformed the Obama administration into the truly progressive presidency for which many had hoped, it has breathed some life back into his presidency and party.
Equally significantly Obama has tripped up the Republican Party. Had the health care bill failed, the Tea Partiers and other right wing activists could have had a substantial victory to their credit. This would have strengthened the narrative, and perhaps even the reality, that the Tea Party movement was something genuinely new with the potential to have a transformative effect on the Republican Party and American politics more generally. The failure of the Tea Party movement to stop the Obama health care reform has put an end to much of this conversation. Instead, the Tea Party movement is beginning to be understood as just another radical partisan movement with little transformative power other than of being an albatross around the neck of the Republican Party.
The debate around the financial reform bill has also demonstrated that the Republican Party has been caught a little off guard by renewed Democratic vigor and that Republicans may become captives of their own irrational rhetoric. Republicans initially responded to the proposed bill by calling it another bailout. Given the nature of the bill, this rhetoric got little traction so the Republicans quickly abandoned it. The Republican Party, of course, cannot support a bill that goes so clearly against their principle of making rich people richer, but realize that taking a strong position against it will not play in the post health care political reality, so they face a real quandary.
In the likely event that this bill passes, President Obama will be able to point to another major piece of domestic legislation almost immediately following the health care bill. The charges of socialism against Obama will not die down after this bill is passed; they may in fact get stronger. These cries, however, will become increasingly irrelevant. Some significant minority of the American people will continue to call Obama socialist almost no matter what, but this is beginning to look less like a problem for Obama and more like one for the Republican's, as they find themselves controlled by a radical and angry, right wing base.
The Democratic Party's fortunes have taken a turn for the better in the last few months because, for what seems like the first time since Obama took office, the party has been aggressive, refused to back down in the face of Republican attacks and abandoned efforts to pass legislation with bipartisan support. However, the Republicans can regain the momentum back from the Democrats if the Obama administration is not vigilant about setting the agenda, pushing hard for more legislation and not being intimidated by the Republicans.
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Directly after healthcare reform passage the anti-Obama message was, to me, a hollow-empty call for protest demonstrations. The idea from the political right was to get the base in a frenzy with the hope that it would spread like a contagious virus. Even though the right has a demonstrated and predictable history of using fear-mongering and political sloganeering as a strategic tactic, it's too short-sighted and narrow focused.
It's as if anything less than a takeover of the House and Senate would not be enough to change the momentum gained by healthcare reform passage.
And I believe the momentum gained by healthcare reform passage has not reached its peak.
Bob the Health and Health Care Advocate http://www.mforall.org
1. No internet - we had to rely on the corporate-owned MSM to do the fact-checking and that's a non-starter
2. Demographics
3. Dems took on the gun lobby (who cost them 15 seats in the House)
4. The remaining Dixicrats of the south switched to the GOP
5. Clinton won 43% of the vote, whereas Obama won 53% of the vote
6. No tea partiers existed that were tearing the GOP in 2 (NY-23 was 2nd most recent national election in which a Dem won b/c of this, in a place the GOP hadn't lost since the Civil War)
7. HCR did not pass that year
8. The previous 8 years were not Bush Jr. (people still very much remember 2001-2008 despite the best efforts by the media and GOP to convince otherwise)
9. No coherent direction or leader from the national GOP (the inmates are running the asylum)
10. No Obama - this guy took down the titan Clinton machine and then wiped up the GOP machine (this guy is full of surprises)
The polls, as displayed through the Dem primaries & general election, fail to identify unlikely voters w/o landlines such as AA, Latinos, & young people. The MSM also conveniently omitts that currently 20% of the population calls themselves Republican. So when they poll GOP, they are polling the most extreme elements.
1994 is ancient history.
And the internet has greatly increased voter awareness. The majority of Americans in 1994 were greatly dependent on politicians who were "in the know". But now everything is transparent and the window that "misinformation" can affect the public mood (i.e. "Swiftboat") is extremely small.
If the Democrats want to salvage my vote, and I doubt they do for they trust that all theat corporate campaign cash will save them, they will use the mojo they are showing on Wall Street "reform" and pass Alan Grayson's Medicare-buy-in bill or other form of public option using the budget reconciliation process -- which they can do because it does not create a new program and will help reduce the cost of health care.
The economy, slowly, is still going to continue to improve and we are going to see about 40,000 young men and women come home, for good, from Iraq alive and well. The offensive in Afghanistan will be in full bloom and, the Lord willing, our soldiers will be okay.
With Democratic candidates running as strong campaigns as they can, and the slew of accomplishments that Democrats were able to push through Congress against near unanimous Republican opposition, the election cycle won't be anywhere near as bad as folks have been trying to assume.
I don't think I've heard for some time now that November will be bad for the Dems. If we get out and just encourage everyone in our immediate precinct to vote, I see no reason why it should not be a landslide. Uh, in our favor. The Republicans have done far too credible a job of fighting tooth and nail to be against everything that would be of the slightest benefit to America.
The people who soured on Obama so quickly honestly thought he was going to come in, wave a magic wand, and undo 8 years of crap in one fell swoop. A couple of the posters below say, "We've been sold out. This isn't what I voted for." One of the biggest victories that passed along with HCR was student loan reformation. That process removed the big banks and will give billions to students. That doesn't sound like the efforts of a president who's been "bought," but is delivering on one of his promises in the timely fashion he could get done.
I plan on getting everybody I know and their moms to get to the polls and vote straight Democrat come November. As we have seen with the recently passed Arizona law, if we thought Bush was the worst ever, just imagine putting the ranting and raging tea partiers in control of things. These are the people who currently run the GOP, and they are worse than any that existed under Bush.
The base template of any immigration legislation is going to likely be something that ends up being drafted by Senator Chuck Schumer(D-NY) and Senator Lindsey Graham(R-SC). And, more likely than not, it's going to build on similar legislation that made it through the Senate in 2007.
Still, if immigration reform legislation does make it to at least committee draft form, it'd be near perfect to have that draft come forward in time for the 2010 elections, as a point of pure political possibilities.
Looking at just the races for Senate, having the goal of immigration reform legislation on the cusp of being worked on in the Senate will help galvanize the Latino voting community and possibly even give enough of a "bump" to affect 4-5 states. California, Colorado, Nevada, Florida and Arizona could all possibly lean in the Democratic direction. That'd be possibly flipping two Republican seats, almost assured if JD Hayworth beats McCain in the Republican primary and Crist dropps his clown notion to run as an Independent in the Florida general.
More discussion need to take place on the destructiveness of the conservative ideology. It is not about people, but about corporations using the govt as their slush fund making laws to help only them. Then, let people eat cake or receive tickle down economics. Every time the conservatives govern this country, there is a financial meltdown - 1929, 1987, 2008.
As long as Obama continues to make statements like this, they sure will: "I do think at a certain point you've made enough money."
58% of Americans want HCR repealed. If that's the Dems' definition of "victory," I think you're going to be mighty surprised, come November, to see what kind of damage was done to the party with just that bill alone.
Miss the polls much?
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/03/29/cnn-poll-americans-divided-on-repealing-health-care-law/?fbid=8LGkj8XlFLj
You are claiming that the Scott Brown election actually motivated them to pass something....anything really.
So we wind up with a steaming heap of garbage with the name "Health Care Reform" and everyone breathes a sigh of relief for the two sided mouth Change Candidate and the pathetically
disfunctional Democratic Party. They actually passed, well- "something" Wow !!!!!
I have voted for Democrats all of my life- not sure why- ignorance I guess. Finally have seen proof that our political representatives are capable of literally saying one thing to be elected- then doing exactly the opposite. The process is utterly corrupted.
I'm disgusted by the Democrats and can't even stand hearing Obama's voice. The guy is full of it.
I intend to stay home in 2010 and 2012.
But I still believe in the Democratic Party platform, and I believe with all my heart that this party alone has the capacity to represent the American people. I see this better on the local level, where my state Representative and Senator have really been instrumental in passing genuinely progressive legislation. For example, my Representative just got legislation passed calling for an extremely significant portion of the state's energy to be provided by renewables. I believe his legislation is the most progressive in the nation.
So my hope for you is that you shelve the problem with Obama and our sundry candidates who appear to have been bought, and concentrate instead on what the party's supposed to mean. And vote for candidates from there. For example, in my state, Colorado, we've got a Senator choice between Bennet (suddenly progressive blue dog and more than likely into corporate pockets) and Romanoff (who appears genuine and who's not taking corporate contributions).
In 2012 I'll be very interested in the Democratic presidental primary. I'll vote for anyone other than Obama, as long as I'm convinced they're not politics-as-usual corporate-bought-and-sold candidates. Hope to see you!
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-29/health-insurers-end-rescission-policy-dropping-sick-customers.html
The talk softly, carry a big stick philosophy is working:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/17/demons-and-demonization/
http://www.cjr.org/the_audit/reuters_is_excellent_in_diggin.php
the "consumers" who need it most.
You are naive.
I've had it with the two sides of Barack Obama's mouth and the disfunctional Democrats.
http://seminal.firedoglake.com/diary/8832
http://www.truthout.org/oklahoma-senate-passes-five-controversial-abortion-bills58754
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20100405/foner
http://www.truthout.org/utah-governor-signs-law-charging-women-and-girls-with-murder-miscarriages575
It's my opinion that the texas patriot, mistyped his name, is should be parrot. Anyone that self describes as patriot, calls into question the need to exclaim such a point.
I know a great number of patriotic people, they are humble in their views and see no need to label themselves in manner. Yet, we see the tea baggers people shouting to all that they are the only patriots.
It puts supporters in the position of defending against an amorphous label and saves opponents from any real debate. It is truly a brilliant, is poisonous and vile, political tactic.