One Way to Lower Gas Prices: Lay Off Iran

For the love of cheap gas, shut up, already. Let's stop with this nonsense about us or the Israelis launching a preemptive strike against Iran. Every time Seymour Hersh fires up his typewriter -- warning the world that an invasion of Iran is imminent -- the price of oil inches upward (unleaded gas rose to $4.09 a gallon on Wednesday, a 12 cent spike from the previous month). That is because the price of oil is determined by the perception of future supply and a war with Iran would, presumably, restrict the flow of oil out of the Gulf -- hence prices go up for average consumers.

Although Iran's oil minister said his country would not curb its supply of crude were it to come under attack, the commander of Iran's Rev Guards said over the weekend that if attacked, Tehran would take control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of the world's oil supply passes.

Talk of invading Iran has a familiar boy-cries-wolf ring to it, and one wonders who is benefiting from such macho chest-bumping (hard-line Israelis? Oil execs? Neocons? Hersh, eager to get his Google count up? Or Cheney's biographer, who needs a nice ending to the chapter: "Why Dick and Other Freedom Loving People Hate Iran"?). After all, Hersh warned us of an imminent invasion and stepped-up special ops activity back in November 2006, sourcing, among other neocons, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute named Joshua Muravchik (disclosure: I interned for Josh back in 1997 and, political leanings aside, he's a lovely man). His latest piece in the New Yorker says, well, that that stuff is still going on and, over objections from peaceniks like Robert Gates and Admiral Fallon, U.S. or Israeli forces may try to a) arm ethnic minorities within Iran, which will cause the house of cards in Tehran to come crashing down, b) bomb Iranian nuke facilities at Natanz, or c) invade, causing the world's last Hummer owner to ponder why he's paying $100 for a gallon of gas.

Here's the deal: AEI memos notwithstanding, Iran's ethnic minorities are not ready to rise up and stage a coup anytime soon. The scattered uprisings have mostly been limited to the Baluchi province in southeastern Iran, the Kurdish parts of northwestern Iran, and the Arab parts of southwestern Iran. Their beef with the authorities is not of the Lenin-versus-the-czars variety but rather over a lack of government jobs, religious rights (i.e. no Sunni mosques), and freedom of movement. Azeris, of which the Supreme Leader is one, often gripe that they are poked fun of by the national media. These are legitimate grievances, to be sure, but any attack by an outside power and these groups would rally around the Iranian flag. Nor is Israeli or U.S. funneling of arms and cash to a few Kurdish separatist groups going to bring about regime change in Iran. All it does is fuel this endless talk of an invasion, which in turn raises the price of gas, and ends up padding the pocket of some oil tycoon in Houston or Riyadh. Do you see a pattern here?

Comments

[DrFitz]

I totally agree. But don't blame Hersh. Blame Cheney and this misguided use of $400 million tax dollars.

[MagisterLudi]

Almost exclusively, the people who war-monger with the non-ending drumbeat of war are the Obama people.
The intention is to scare Americans into supporting Obama
Problem is NO ATTACK is eminent never was and not likely to be.
EVERYONE, including Itanians themselves are convinced of that.
The ONLY people who are obsessing over this are the Obamniacs.
Is it usual of petty-bourgeois liberal neurosis or a cynical manipulation of the electorate.
Perhaps a bit of both.

[Caddisfly]

What are you smoking?????

[bgregs]

DUDE!!!! Whatever you're on, I want some! This is the strangest, least truthful post I've EVER seen on HuffPo!! This makes Rove claiming that we went to war in Iraq because the DEMOCRATS in Congress forced his hand look almost like a simple mistake, rather than a flat out lie!

[orangepetal]

Obama does not want to drill. All the world is booming on Americas money. Money that we give them daily for oil. It may be a wiser idea to keep that money here at home. We use 3 times more than we produce , yet Obama does not think this is a short or long term issue. I think it is a big issue. I think we can get some major bargaining going for wind energy.

[Awakenedcitizen]

ride the bus
turn off lights
recycle
compost
no bottled water
78degrees thermostat in the summer when it is hot
do laundy and dishes after 9 pm and before 9 am
walk
bike
sell your gas guzzler
ride a bike
car pool
have a vegetable garden
use cloth bags at the grocery store
cuddle for warmth

[earthwealth]

Iran is a rational country and has demonstrated it in many occasions. If you do not agree, I cannot help. We already know Iran had stopped their nuclear weapons program in 2003. Let"s put away the rumors for a moment. What is the chance Iran has resumed their nuclear weapons program? Let it be 20%. What is the chance they may use it against us? Let it be 10%. Now what would happen to theses percentages after we attack them? If they would go much higher, do you think attacking Iran would make sense and is a wise decision? Incidentally, for your information, July 2, 2008 was the 20th. Anniversary of the shooting down (by two American Cruise Missiles) an Iran Air passenger plane flying over Persian Gulf. All 290 passengers and cruse were killed. Only one hundred bodies were recovered.

[MagisterLudi]

"Let"s put away the rumors for a moment."
Gee, Lets. The most important rumor that needs to be put away is that Israel or US is about to attack Iran.

"Iran is a rational country and has demonstrated it in many occasions."

Grand Ayatollah of Iran Ruling Council Lankarani issued a call on Muslims to murder Rafiq Tagi, who writes for Azerbaijan's Senet newspaper, echoes the Iranian fatwa against Indian writer Salman Rushdie.

Lankarani called for the death of the writer and also the person responsible for publishing his articles.
The Iranian cleric had offered his house as a reward to anyone who killed the Azeri writer.

The Iranian leader, Ali Khameneh"i, threatened Azerbaijan "We remind Baku's politicians that today the Islamic Republic of Iran is powerful enough to realise historical claims of the people".

Rational?!!!

OK the summary of the lesson. You can sleep well tonite, the despots of Iran are safe.

[Caddisfly]

The only reason Iran feels free to make these type of statements is that we, the US, have eliminated Saddam Hussein and his military. Iraq used to be the one balancing force against Iran before we moved in to upset it all. Please don't give me those platitudes about how bad Saddam was, I agree, but if that is the standard we should be in at least 20 other counties right now. I sleep fine by the way, though I do occasionaly worry about how I'm going to afford driving to work and feeding my family.

[bdaved]

If the President were to use his bully pulpit to encourage Americans to modify their driving habits, mainly to the extent of merely obeying existing laws, it could make more difference tomorrow than expanding drilling or obtaining other new sources of supply would over the next few years. But that's just as likely as trying to build a better relationship with Israel's oldest friend, Persia.

[algupta]

WE have to take a proactive role to become Energy Independent. I believe the only method is to set a goal and work at achieving it. I have posted a Petition and I hope you will support it.




http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/windenergycorporation


Please (a) sign the Petition if you agree with it, and (b) forward it to your friends and family even if you do not agree with it
so they may examine it and express their opinion.

Thanks.

Regards and Best wishes.

[midtown]

THANK YOU.

[motamanx]

Our military uses up lots and lots of fuel, just to bomb the people who have it. Now the results are in: $4.50 a gallon.

[jsarets]

Just wait until we hit them with our the most recent addition to our military arsenal: the Inter-Continental Ballistic Oil Rig. The Neocon's wet dream, the ICBOR gives us the ability to forcibly extract oil from hostile nations.

Once reaching its cruise altitude in near space, the launch vehicle releases dozens of rotating drillheads attached to flexible tubes suspended by a giant hydrogen balloon inflated during flight. Upon making impact above targeted oil fields, the drillheads burrow down until they reach their prize and begin pumping oil back through the suspended tubes to the good-ole US of A.

But in all seriousness, I'm sure the Pentagon has actually considered something along these lines...

[earthwealth]

Ya, sucking oil is done in many ways.

[Donald Wolberg]

The problem with being confused complicates confusing issues and Mr. Beehner has accomplished both. An Iran armed with "the bomb" cannot be tolerated. Iran is not much of a military threat withour terror weapons, hence the reason for Iran to acquire terror weapons, nuclear, chemical and biological, the latter two largely ignored. itan has a miserable air force, a less than miserable peed baot navy and comic armor. It has a declining number of fanatics. The damage or constraints on shutting down oil flow from other suppliers is negligible, In point of fact Iran imports refined fuels and its military would quickly stop for lack of diesel or jet fuel. The real answer to any dependence on foreign oil is oil independence and production of vast reserves in the American West, either coast and the Gulf. We have at least 600 years of oil.It is ironic that the Chinese have Cuban permits to produce oil off of Florida, yet no American company can. Real production would be less than a year away with imediate action by a cowardly Congress. It is that simple.

[earthwealth]

We will start drilling when oil price goes over $500/barrel. In the meantime we should keep developing nuclear fuel and prevent Iran and other oil producing countries from getting the knowledge of nuclear fuel production so we can sell them at exotic prices when they run out of oil.

[algupta]

I believe we can achieve energy independence. We have to unite and petition our leaders to implement a plan. I have posted a Petition. I hope you will support it.


http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/windenergycorporation


Please (a) sign the Petition if you agree with it, and (b) forward it to your friends and family even if you do not agree with it
so they may examine it and express their opinion.

Thanks.

Regards and Best wishes,

[bgregs]

Why would an Iran with a bomb be unacceptable? They would be no less acceptable than the U.S.A. with a bomb, and we've got THOUSANDS of them!!!

[PioneerKing]

LIONEL:

You are incorrect - the one way to see major change is to revoke the changes in the ENRON energy/commodities legislation.

[bookeramez]

That may be a way, but the best way is to stop exporting oil from this country. Why are we exporting oil and at the same time crying that we need to produce more to help the American economy. It is all about greed. We are exporting more oil this year than we did last year. Read all about it.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN0325640920080703

[TxAggie]

You have a good point, I do not know the answer. I can see the validity of trading products with countries that we import from, such as Mexico and Canada, beyond that it does not make sense. If companies have contractual obligations I think they need to be honored through their terms (assuming it is short) but beyond that I would support a produce it here, sell it here policy.

[4johnny]

I drive a gas-guzzling car, but I want HIGHER oil prices. The age of oil-based conspicuous consumerism and vanity is coming to an end (thanx, but no thanx baby boomers!). Just look around: fuel prices, "wars", the environment, western (un)health, hatred towards the "first" world, the enslavement of the "third" world.

Give me a break, attack Iran? The US administration already invaded the wrong country, Iraq, in a "strategic" attempt to avoid failure in Iran. (Ironically, they are failing in Iraq much to their ignorant surprise).

Clean energy WILL save the planet. We are slowly convincing the greedy elites to redirect their blood money into renewables - fewer political headaches for them - and a good change for all the rest of us. It has to happen at some point, or heads will roll.

Of course, war is highly profitable. So I wonder: Has anyone measure the WIND resources in Iran? There is still still to reconsider, and INVADE ALREADY!

[Donald Wolberg]

This is silly of course: the shortage of production is the shortage of will on the part of elitist politicians who refuse to allow the development of abundant American resources. The only oil developed off of Florida is by the Chinese with Cuban permits. American companies are not allowed to drill. There are demonstrated petroleum resources right here for the next 600 years. Scarcity of resources is not the issue; effective leadership is.

[speakingout]

Wolberg;
I am so sick of the ignorance of the majority of Americans that continue to believe that we need oil to power our energy. We DON'T NEED TO DRILL> We have plenty of oil. Go see the US 2005 Energy Dept Report. We have been FORCED to use oil by the very people that own these companies and finance them - Exxon has very close ties with the corrupt bastards running our government - Bush and gang. This is strictly a profit and power play to continue to control the masses. You can run your car on water and this technology has been around since the 60's or maybe even before. What do you think hydrogen fuel cells are? Hydrogen is the H in H2O! We've been lied to for over 100 years about the electric car. Invented in the late 1800's. Wake up America, they could care less about terrorists or Iran having a nuclear bomb. It's about the oil and the fact that Iran wants to trade in other currency besides the sinking US dollar!

[bookeramez]

Then explain why we are exporting oil. Is it the elitist politicians that are allowing American oil to be exported out of the United States. You did know that we are exporting oil to other countries such as Canada, Mexico, and Korea to name a few.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN0325640920080703

[kae]

No Donald.......

http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2008/07/03/10085/

[kae]

from the article...

"What is driving the ANWR push is not facts but pure shock doctrine strategy"the oil crisis has created the conditions in which it is possible to sell a previously unsellable (but highly profitable) policy."

[TxAggie]

Don-I have been in the oil industry for 28 years. As i travel to such places as Chicago and NY and have the opportunity to talk to people regarding energy issues I find that most Americans are level headed although from reading the blogs one might get the impression that the greenies and NIMBYS are the norm-they are not. With regard to the GOM, in the eastern gulf there are over 11 MM acres of unleased acreage that is off limits to O&G Exploration, as is the East and West Coast OCS. I wish our politicians would bother to go to the Gulf and study the issue of course the vast majority of them have not. If Pelosi, Reid, Obama, et al would take the trouble to study the subject just a bit they would be amazed at the capability of our industry with regard to safety, environment and reserve replacement. But politicians don't do that. i am amazed at the talking points that they all share and the inaccuracies they repeat over and over again. All of a sudden everyone is an energy expert but where have they all been before now?

[algupta]

WE have to take a proactive role to become Energy Independent. I believe the only method is to set a goal and work at achieving it. I have posted a Petition and I hope you will support it. Wind energy is cost effective and can be implemented in a short time.


http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/windenergycorporation


Please (a) sign the Petition if you agree with it, and (b) forward it to your friends and family even if you do not agree with it
so they may examine it and express their opinion.

Thanks.

Regards and Best wishes,

[jackwaddington]

We've gotten the argument backwards. The price of oil (energy) is not the problem, the problem is how many Ergs (Joules) do each of us need to live a fulfilling life? Suggestion: The automobile is out of date.

[DFreedomMan]

You probably drive to the end of your driveway to get the newspaper! You are out of date. How about air-pressure cars, hydrogen cars, etc?

[MagisterLudi]

Two words for Americans incapable to get beyond the car/no car narrative.

PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION!

[jackwaddington]

You are correct, I am also out of date.

The automobile is:-
too wide (two wide)
too heavy: (takes too much energy to move it)
too dangerous:" (kills too many of us)
too complicated (too many things to go wrong)
too polluting: (CO2)
too congesting: roughly 20 people in one mile, three lanes on the freeway)
too expensive to buy
too expensive to run: (at $5.00 a gallon)
too expensive to maintain: (are there any honest mechanics?)
too expensive to insure:

[Moncar]

Want to see the price of oil drop - a lot. Then send a singing telegram to Ahmedineajahd (please pardon the spelling) to stop following in the doomed footsteps of Saddam who blustered his way to the gallows. Let him announce his boasts of wiping Israel off the map were just ill-considered Middle Eastern humor and then follow up with proposals to verify he was only kidding.
If only he could do that as convincingly as he made many of us believe he's both nuts and dangerous, he would save us, the Israelis, the Middle East and himself a lot of grief. And, he'd single-handedly bring down the price of oil - a lot.
By the way, could someone more knowledgable than me confirm that there are elections due in Iran next year that might make all this storm and drang moot.

[SShaw490]

But keep a couple of things in mind:

(1) Iran is in the oil selling business. They like the prices just fine;
(2) AJad's political muscle is infinitely enhanced by being the guy who thumbs his nose at America;
(3) America threatening Iran just helps Iran bond with Russia and China who, you might note don't like us all that much anyway.

I'd challenge anyone to show where America has been anything but a net benefit to Iran for the last 8 years.

[truthbrigade]

Enormous benefit to Iran. 1) got rid of their arch enemy (Saddam) 2) greatly enhanced their position in the entire Mid East, 3) made them rich beyond their imagination, 3) made the US weaker politically, militarily, and economically, 4) destroyed US reputation around the world, 5) mortgaged the lives of Americans for generations to come, I can keep going......

This nightmare is beyond description. Thank you George and those who voted for him twice, thank you very much.

[earthwealth]

Israel wouldn'n allow it.

[bgregs]

Don't you mean send a telegram to bush and co to stop the posturing that they performed before we went into Iraq, cause while Saddam wasn't DENYING anything that we said, he also wasn't SAYING anything!

[MagisterLudi]

BINGO and thank you for this blog Mr. Beehner.

Huffington Post, among many others have been beating the drums of war with Iran for the last two years.
In contrast to all the evidence pointing in the opposite direction.
Is it myopia, hysteria or just unwillingness to let go of an easy resource stream that Iran threads tend to generate?
Perhaps all three combined.