Israel's Thinking May Provide Insight into Obama's

Some in the Arab media are saying that Barack Obama's silence about Israel's assault on the Gaza strip amounts to tacit support for Israel's actions. But the fact that Israel decided to launch this massive attack on the Gaza strip in the waning days of the Bush administration suggests that Tel Aviv, at least, thinks that the days for such an action might be limited. In this case, Israel's self-interested calculation may provide the best gauge of what the Obama administration's foreign policy in the region will be.

Nothing in the events leading up to the now nine day long assault on Gaza created a sense of urgency that justifies the scale and speed of the Israeli action. It is undoubtedly true that Hamas is a terrorist organization, and that it has been increasing the number of rockets it has been launching at southern Israel in recent months. However, Hamas is also democratically elected , and Israel is a country that has a long history of enduring attacks both by external entities, such as Hezbullah in southern Lebanon, and suicide bombers within its borders. The rocket attacks from Gaza were not a new phenomenon, and the casualties, though tragic, were minimal (four in total, according to the New York Times.) And the backlash from the attacks across Gaza, the West Bank and the rest of the Middle East poses a much greater threat to Israeli security than the rockets coming from Gaza. Yet the scale, duration and ferocity of the assault have left even many supporters of the Jewish state watching the unfolding events with horror. And, in the diplomatic community, no one thinks that a conflagration of violence between Israelis and Palestinians will make the Obama administration's first few weeks in office any easier. Why then, would Israel take such drastic action during the final hours of Bush's watch, rather than wait until after January 20th for the support of the incoming administration, and the powerful message such backing would send?

Israel is a sophisticated state actor that can be counted on to read and react to shifting political trends. When seen in light of a possible policy change in Washington, the urgency and intensity of Israel's actions make more sense. Israel's leaders clearly felt that it was better for the country to take action now, with Bush in office, than to wait for a matter of weeks and be able to act with backing of the most watched new U.S. administration to take office since the state of Israel was founded. Rather than being a sign of support for the Gaza offensive, Obama's refusal to comment at all may suggest that, while he is unwilling to interfere in the White House's ability to conduct foreign policy, he may not be supportive of Israel's actions, and that he intends to take a different tone from the current administration tone in office. Thus, for those hoping that the U.S. might once again provide moral leadership in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there may be a silver lining to the tragic events unfolding in Gaza, as Israel's actions may suggest that it expects, as Hamas should too, greater pressure from the U.S. for serious concessions from both sides.

Comments

[beautifulady2003]

"It is undoubtedly true that Hamas is a terrorist organizati­on,..."

Spoken like a true mainstream media person.

Hamas is terrorist because Israel says so. And because Israel says so, the US parrots it.

Hamas is the voice of the Muslims against the tyrrany of the Zionists. They are freedom fighters raging against Zionist oppression and the theft of Palestinian land.

[2wit]

Great article - I was thinking (hoping) as much. It is difficult not to pass judgement when witnessing the horrors of war - one can only hope there is an outcome that can at least explain (not totally justify) the violence mankind inflicts on it's own kind.

[mulliganman]

Hamas and the people who support them should try to be civilized and stop sending rockets forever. if somebody sent rockets into america or any other country they would be attacked. get Hamas under control or get rid of them. nobody wants anymore of this sensless violence. I am not crazy about israel ,quite frankly I am tired of hearing about it. we have enough of our own problems

[radrich]

wow! I first thought to prounce on your stament. But after reading it does make alot of sense. I dont think american policy will change that much. Look who Obama has brought in. Hillary and other Bill Cliton officlals. Who by the way did nothing to . stop settlements and Hllary herself has stated that its Hamas faul. its not the arab media that is stating that the isreal assalut is wrong but the world. withthe exception of the US

[Mover]

The premise that the Israelis would not start such a self defense initiative after Obama is inaugurated means that it is believed that Obama could actually do something about it.

So, what would Obama do?

I think I have the answer. A President Obama would do exactly the same thing that Presidents Bush, Clinton, H.W. Bush, Carter, and Nixon did.

He would call for restraint on the part of Israel, just like the rest.

[Libarchist]

Obama has no idea how to deal with actual --day to day-- International issues. His followers, are generally rabidly ant--Israel.

He is in a catch 22, if he has a objective approach to domestic and international issues, by throwing out his identity politics message and staff -- he would not win in 2012.

So, likely he will do not much of anything; but have his staff right up colorful press releases..

Israel probably figured out this fact, by simply looking at Obama and, more importantly, his administrators actual resumes, not the fake ones used for the election campaign.

[UKOH]

It's very simple. Obama is saying nothing because he disagrees fundamentally with the Bush position on this conflict. In international affairs you cannot have multiple official voices at the same time. Therefore "There is only one president at a time."

[Palspal2]

I'd have to agree that Obama's silence (almost) may mean that he intends a more level-headed approach to the Conflict. After all, it would be very easy for him to agree with the status quo in America - that Israel is right in whatever it does. None the less, we should not expect Obama to get behind that which really needs to be accomplished. A State of Palestine in ALL of the West Bank and Gaza, the return of the Palestinian refugees to their homes they were violently evicted from (or the option of just compensation), and the establishment of East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine.

As far as Hamas being a terrorist organization, such a designation is far more true of Likud and Labor. Suffice it to say that all three are political organizations that resort to acts of terror at times. But it should be noted that Hamas and the Palestinians are fighting for their very lives, while Likud, Labor and Israelis are fighting for a bigger Israel.

[Akenanubis]

I think Obama, Rahm Emanuel and the Israeli action in Gaza are all in perfect synch. The war gets started during Bush's watch, Obama's hands are clean, yet he gets to ride in and up the ante by coming to Israel's so-called "defense" because he will claim to have no other choice, and voila. How is this not brilliantly clear? Opening game festivities now instead of after Obama takes office is israel's greatest gift to him and if you don't believe Emanuel, Israel, and the Obama team along with Hillary Clinton are not orchestrating this, then come sit on Santa's lap. By placing Rahm Emanuel in his cabinet Obama has made it brilliantly clear what his intentions towards the Middle East will be. Put down the Obama kool-aid and wake up. And I voted for him. But he put off his mask almost instantly after the votes were counted.

[qazi63]

THOU SHALL NOT KILL, PERIOD.

All followers of the three (3) great Abrahamic religions, Judaism, Christianity
and Islam believe in the Ten (10) Commandments. In our humble opinion,
if anyone killed another innocent human being or himself, he is neither a Jew,
nor a Christian, nor a Muslim, because he disobeyed one of the most important
Commandments of Almighty God (Allah): Thou Shall Not Kill (MURDER)!
……..

Given below are some of the verses from the Holy Qur’an and Holy Bible
in support thereof, referring to the number of Surah (Chapter) first followed
by the number of Ayah (Verse), later (from an English translation of the
Holy Qur’an by Mr. Muhammad Marmaduke Pickthall).

Yet ye (Children of Israel) it is who slay each other and drive out a
party of your people from their homes, supporting one another against
them by sin and transgression, and if they came to you as captives ye
would ransom them, whereas their expulsion was itself unlawful for you.
Believe ye in part of the Scripture and disbelieve ye in part thereof?
(2:85)

[sarahjoh2]

strange that the original post makes no mention of national elections in february as another time factor in israel's calculations.

obama is between a rock and a hard place on this, but from this one european's perspective, at least, he still could have handled it better. his comments to a reporter that it was especially important that only one voice come out of american on foreign affairs seemed rather cold, clinical, and heartless. no mention of the casualties - on both sides??? could he have not have prefaced those comments with something along the lines of wishing that his pronouncements could stop the bloodshed and violence..­. (but it was important that only one voice came out of america, etc, etc??) even GWB made a nod to the humanitarian crisis, before going off on his usual rant about hamas.

the arab world was likely to give the US a second chance on israeli-palestinian negotiations purely based on obama's election. however, sadly, he's already lost that goodwill, and when he comes to finally address the issue, his less-than-deft silence now is only going to make the task all the harder, i reckon. ie, i agree with this.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jan/04/obama-gaza-israel

shame. i don't mean to criticise too much, as it is a tricky one. but the politician i thought so much of for so long is looking a little insular on this.

[Ronju01]

Pat Buchanan said on MSNBC show 1600 Penn Av. that Israel media and Parliament have more dissenters on Israel's Gaza action than US MSM and US Congress !!

[BARRISTER]

If one was to apply the dictionary meaning of the word " terrorist", both Israel and the United States would be so classified; not only Hamas. The point is that violence never brings Peace.

[qazi63]

Why blame Islam?

Individuals, not religions, carry out inhuman acts.

Islam is a religion of peace, accepted and practiced by more than 1.25 billion people worldwide. It is the fastest-growing religion in the world, and if it was what some critics claim, why should the people from all walks of life from around the world keep embracing Islam? Where is the sword now?

In Islam, a person has the right to defend himself, his family, his country or his neighbor(s), which justifies the resistance being offered by the people of Afghanistan, Bosnia, Chechnya, Iraq, Kashmir and Palestine, to attacks on their soils by the so-called liberators, who are actually the occupiers.

The Holy Qur’an clearly states that if a person saves one life, it’s as if he saved humanity, and if a person kills one human being, it’s as if he killed humanity.

What is happening in the enslaved Muslim countries is a natural reaction to occupation, bombings, killing and terrorizing of innocent civilians (children, old men and women), rapes, in addition to looting of resources, national antiques and artifacts, above all the destruction of their property by the occupiers.

Terror breeds terror.

We assure those who bash Islam that if there was no occupation in this world by foreign invaders, there would be no resistance – the so-called terror.

Please explain the criminal acts committed by the Christians on Jews, other Christians and Muslims alike, throughout history:

[JZ735]

I wish that was so, but Obama's deafening silence on this, with the feeble and worn out claim that he is not President yet, means we may have Obama continuing America's unbalanced and lopsided support for Israel.

[PhillyinDubai]

Silence is golden for Obama. When in office he might be able to resolve this issue and put the leash back on America's pitbull in the Middle East

[mudshark12]

I guess the Israelis figured they'd better nail Hamas while they had the chance, not knowing how Obama would feel about it. Expect hostilites to cease shortly before the inauguration, that is, temporarily.

[JZ735]

If Obama doesn't come down hard on both sides, it will be a green light for more troubles.