Can Obama Beat The Clock?

Barack Obama has only one enemy left standing and it's not Hillary Clinton. It's time itself. All the evidence is in: the more that voters are exposed to Obama, the more they flock to him. The more they see Hillary Clinton, the more stagnant her numbers.

If the election were held last Tuesday, Clinton would have walked away with it. If it were to be held a week from this Tuesday, Obama would waltz to victory.

The latest surveys reveal an unmistakable and unprecedented surge by Obama, nationally and in almost every key state on this Tuesday's calendar of 22 primaries.
And one key survey even has him ahead in the gold-ring state of California where, a month ago, he was down by 20 points.

Obama's rise over this past week in the Golden State has been breathtaking. The state has rippled with the energy unleashed by the endorsement handed him by Teddy Kennedy and then follow-up with a one-two punch endorsement from the L.A. Times and the country's largest Spanish-language newspaper, La Opinion. Then along comes Oprah again to rock Sunday's pro-Obama rally at UCLA. Better said, a foreshock. Because the real rattler was the surprise endorsement by Maria Shriver, the wife of the sitting Republican Governor of California. Did I already say breathtaking.

Meanwhile, this Sunday morning while Bill Clinton was campaigning in a handful of black churches in South Central Los Angeles, the Obama ground crew was seen blanketing a much wider array of churches in the area. There were no TV cameras or packs of reporters - just hard-working canvassers trying to capture support voter-by-voter.

What Obama's late surge tell us is crystal clear. He did the same in every early voting-state, slowly but surely eroding or overcoming the early, wide lead held by Clinton. In each case, she started out miles ahead and in each case Obama closed the gap. Conclusion: Hillary's strength is hollow. Based on stratospheric name recognition, institutional support, and celebrity she starts out with a natural advantage. But as voters get familiar with Obama, as they hear his call for change and change-over, as they watch the Clinton campaign resort to the worst sort of old-style politicking (most recently Hillary suggesting that voting for Obama would be akin to voting for Bush), the momentum builds in the opposite direction.

With just less than a day to go, the question is if Obama can beat the clock. Can he actually win California and the bulk of delegates this Tuesday to stage one of the greatest upsets in modern political history? Can he at least win enough delegates to stay alive and surpass Clinton next month in the Ohio and Texas primaries?

Conversely, a Clinton win this week, produced merely by the absurd acceleration of the primary calendar, would leave the Democrats with what might be called a Twilight Zone candidate - a nominee who the party rejected but the calendar saved.

Comments

[longislandlol]

Her numbers were etched in stone from the beginning of her candidacy because of the high unfavorables and this almost manic love/hate that did more to divide the democrats than to unite them--

[NicoleAnonymous]

Did anyone else think it was strange that the NYT had two op-ed editorials yesterday about how we're never sure there won't be another holocaust and how Hitler rose to power?

It was really strange timing.Did they really need two op-ed pieces right before the primary election?Maybe I'm reading too much into it but I think it was a subtle way for them to get Jewish voters to think about how we might have to deal with another holocaust and how horrible it was back then. When Jews start thinking about that then we start worrying about someone who might be too lenient towards Muslims and then we start getting crazy and decide we can't vote for Obama right now.

I'm probably the person who is crazy but I really thought it was strange.

[ElmoBo]

I am praying, praying and praying that America will make the right choice and vote for Hillary. I'll be glued to the TV tomorrow night waiting for the delegate count to start pouring in. Please, America, if you want the US to be respected once again, choose Hillary. Only with Hillary will we not only get experience, but intelligence and toughness. This is not about Bill Clinton, so stop using the "I don't want Bill back in the White House" stuff. Vote for the candidate who can beat John McCain come November.

Hillary '08

[truth101]

Actually time is on Hillary's side because THE BIG O has peaked, and the KENNEDY CHARADE isn't much to take seriously. Everyone knows Caroline has been out of the main discourse her whole life, and that Maria is just an old news reader married to the hunk of her life who backs the guy who would turn the supreme court into total retro civil rights. HILLARY WAS JUST ABOUT PERFECTR AT HER DEBATE, AND should lock up the nomination on TUESDAY.. aLL THIS nonsense in HP about the KENNEDY is totally hallucinatory.....pure unadulterated NEPOTISM

[Agosto]

Really Marc Cooper? The more I see BO the less inclined I am to vote for him.

I don't know this guy and although he's nice to look at and says pretty things I don't think he's got the steel.

The CNN debate sealed the deal - HRC wiped the floor with him.

[theuniversal]

Name brand recognition from the Clinton presidency is the best thing Hillary Clinton has going for her campaign. But that advantage gets weaker every day this race goes on, as voters get more familiar with the new guy. Obama also has more money and can tap more money going forward because of his broader donor base, so generally he's in a better position than Hillary to continue the race after Feb. 5th. Obama only needs a close finish in terms of delegates. Hillary, on the other hand, has a deadline of Feb. 5th to win big and close this race. So the real question is, can Hillary beat the clock? After Super Tuesday, time is definitely on Obama's side.

[researcher]

should be interesting if obama gets more delegates but hillary wins with the super delegates.

at least the demos admit that the voters dont have the brains to select a candidate that toes the party line.

want to see a party fall apart watch what happens if obama wins the voters and not the super delegates and hillary prances into the white house.

third party time and the demos will bring it about. one can only hope.

voters follow the advice of one of our founding fathers jefferson. it has been 200 years time to throw them all out and I mean all of them.

[brucds]

"I met her at a Bob Menendez rally in NJ"

Boy, I can feel the electricity...

[SaintZak]

I think nothing will be decided on Tuesday. Both will claim some sort of victory, but in the end it will be pretty much a wash. That Obama closed the gap so far so fast is telling. If Hillary Clinton does manage to secure the nomination you will feel the dull thud of this election falling flat. Young voters, independants, disgruntled Republicans and alot of Democrats will lose interest. It will come down to a choice of "bad" and "bad" in November. I think Obama winning the election would be a sensation...and a HUGE turnout in November.

[SmellTheHorse]

Hillary's horny hubby has spent the past 8 years cashing checks for hundreds of millions of dollars from secret donors to his Libary and Foundation whose names he refuses to reveal. The few names which aggressive reporters were able to unearth were unsavory at best, sleazy at worst, all seeping quid-pro-quo out of their pores.
John McCain will not hesitate to demand that Bubba and the Missus make public those donors' names. (Not to mention HRC's White House records, which Billary have fought to keep sealed.) And the Democratic Party will once again be treated to its Presidential candidate lying, evading, covering up and issuing absurd statements dripping with legalese. The Clintons make John McCain look like Mr. Clean.

[Puller58]

No, Obama does not have enough time. Frankly, the press ignores reality to gin up the horserace. Take Oprah. The woman the press describes ceased to exist better than 10 years ago. What she now embodies is the Martha Stewart/Rachel Ray model. Women(caucasion)may watch her show, but vote for Obama? Please. And if you check out the unathorized bio on her, blacks haven't been thrilled with her for a long while. Billary cannot be stopped by what Obama is doing. As for VP, huh? Al Gore would have a better chance of being picked by the Queen of Hearts. At any rate, she'll always have the senate once McCain does her in.

[alkamm]

The idea that time is against Obama is funny. The only thing against him as been the Clinton machine and their devotion to obstruction.
Let's go for a real mandate for change and see Obama in a landslide, with the Senate and House on his coat tails and McCain leading the once and future minority party, at last put into the minority they so richly (and I emphasize richly) deserve.
Let them vote what they call their "interests" for a guy who wants to re-fight the Vietnam War in Iraq. For 100 years.

[dr4Will]

oh,little cooper is at it again--hoping for his black candidate to win so he can feel so good in his ultra liberal way--how pathetic--

[5oclockshadow]

You've got this all backwards.

The more people know him, hear him, see him, the more they LOVE HIM!!!

What is now a neck-and-neck race, will in a few weeks be a blowout.

Meanwhile, Obama is raising a million dollars a day, from hundreds of thousands of new donors who are nowhere near their FEC limits for the General.

They said this day would never come, but the Giants won the Superbowl, and Barack Obama is competitive in California.

[vbond]

SUPER BOWL TO THE UNDERDOG: GIANTS.

TITANIC TUESDAY TO THE UNDERDOG: OBAMA.

LOOK OUT.