Never have so many been so disappointed so much about the prospects of avoiding war. If only the mullahs really had some nukes. As the news from the National Intelligence Estimate debunking Iran's supposed nuclear build- seeps in, you can sense the palpable disappointment building -- faster. Just when the architects of victory in Iraq were drafting plans for an encore in Iran, just as all the excitement, the rush, the exaltation of sprinting right toward WWIII was heavy upon us, it goes and gets cancelled!
Tough luck, guys.
That includes, I think, most of the Republican presidential candidates and for sure the GOP congressional campaign strategists for whom -- it's been an open secret-- the run-up to a war with Iran was going to be a sort of October Surprise, the magic issue on which to try and ride out the 08 campaign.
Let's also include among the crestfallen the Democratic candidate Ms. Hillary Clinton who --in spite of her vast and vaunted years of experience and foreign policy acumen-- totally misjudged her play on Iran. A few months back, riding high in the polls and with her eyes already cast on the general election, Clinton hedged her bets on the right by shamelessly endorsing the Kyl-Lieberman resolution on Iran (which everybody knows was really the Cheney-Bush resolution). Absolutely convinced that the administration was pushing us toward a new war, Clinton clearly figured the best thing for her to do was to try and get out ahead of the curve and unfurl her hawkish wings.
Oops. She now faces the prospect of living out this month of the pre-Iowa campaign by having to repeatedly explain how it is she wound up outflanking the CIA on the right.
George W. Bush has also some explaining to do. After recently warning of the threat of global holocaust over Iran, who's going to believe that the Prez didn't know what his own intel guys had found out about Iran at the same time he was blustering? Either he knew and concealed the inconvenient truth. Or he wasn't interested enough in his own war plans to even find out. Which is worse?
More rational views within the intelligence community and the State Department seem to be having an impact. The facts trump ideology. If the US bombed Iran, it would be an unmitigated disaster. Overnight, the Iranian people would rally around their leader, even his critics and detractors. What would the American people do in this situation? Remember what happened after 9-11? How Bush's approval rating soared to around 90%? The same thing would happen to Ahamdinejad in Iran.
No, we do not want to strengthen Ahmadinejad; we want to weaken and isolate him. We do this through tough diplomacy, along with our allies (yes, that includes the French). This would include the threat of tougher sanctions, but along with the stick there must be a carrot. If Iran cooperates, the US must hold out the possibility of normalized relations and trade with Iran; we always had diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union, why not Iran? We're still holding a grudge about what happened in 1979?
The US must build a united front against Iran's hard line ideologues. This cannot be construed as a power struggle between the US and Iran; it must be the world not wanting Iran to have nuclear weapons. Also, the US should engage other more moderate factions within Iran. Any channels of communication must be used. Diplomacy is not easy; it is a long, hard slog, but is necessary.
or something in between?
the "decider" walking around with his fingers in his ears screaming LALALALALALALALALALA I DON'T WANNA HEAR LALALALALALALALALA.........
d
Now Bush will not be able to take down Irans nuke program. Israel says that Iran has moved it underground and is still building nukes....working on it that is.
So now the US is knocked out of the picture. Israel will have to take down Irans nuclear weapons program or see Israel wiped out when Iran decides they have enough nukes to do the job.
Now lets see, will Israel sit around and wait to be exterminated or will Israel fight back with a first strike? I think I know what they will do. Iran probably knows too.
But Beyond Coop's standard softer wack for the right; the bottom line is Hillary should receade to the middle of the Dem pack and then fade away. Their just isn't any wriggle room on this one.
Even those who have tried to insist on fair play for the Clintons (guilty as charged, and it's been no picnic) must admit that Clinton has played politics here out of a reflex for political survival rather than any rational gesture to the wise or decent. How the hell She thought siding with Bush here was either good politics or good policy is impossible to comprenhend.
Splitiing the diference on the policy with the worst garbage of the political right saved Bill's hide so many times it must be, again, a reflex at this point. That's why it's time for a change.
This recent report that unveals the truth on Iran really broke their hearts.
This is the result of a DEAL. The iranians have agreed to let Bush have his victory in Iraq (after showing what they were capable of, for 3.5 years), and Bush let the cat out of the bag. He's a lame duck prez, do you think he really cares about his ratings?. Bob Gates and Condi have worked out an arrangement with the persians, just like the predecessors did in the last days of the Hostage crisis (to delay it long enough for Carter to lose election). The NIE could have stayed under the wraps for a year longer (for 'national security' reasons - if the prez wanted it so) - but the timing of it is really revealing.
Either that or this is a coup from within the intelligence community. I'm inclined to believe it's not, the Iranians have played their last card in Iraq, and the Bush administration eager to have *one* success story of their 8 years was obliged to reciprocate. In other words, both parties have achieved a parity of terror. Bush has retreated just at the right time - near the end of his 2nd term. The Arab sheikdoms who are courting foreign investment desperately seem to have embraced the Shia crescent as a necessary evil, since that is the only way to avoid total destruction for the region, and Iran is playing along..
After all, Valerie Plame "who worked on the clandestine side of the CIA in the Directorate of Operations as a non-official cover (NOC) officer, was part of an operation tracking distribution and acquisition of weapons of mass destruction technology to and from Iran."
"Speaking under strict confidentiality, intelligence officials revealed heretofore unreported elements of Plame's work. Their accounts suggest that Plame's outing was more serious than has previously been reported and carries grave implications for U.S. national security and its ability to monitor Iran's burgeoning nuclear program.
While many have speculated that Plame was involved in monitoring the nuclear proliferation black market, specifically the proliferation activities of Pakistan's nuclear "father," A.Q. Khan, intelligence sources say that her team provided only minimal support in that area, focusing almost entirely on Iran."
Larisa Alexandrovna
Published: February 13, 2006 http://rawstory.com/news/2005/Outed_CIA_officer_was_working_on_0213.html
Like hell.
Once Israel attacks Iran, Dems and Reps alike will be falling all over themselves with justifications -- and reasons why the U.S. must join the fight.
Sorry, folks, but between AIPAC pressure and all that money to be made by the masters of war, WWIII will proceed as scheduled.
Mr. President, I am sorry that the war was cancelled. It was such a bright future for your legacy. While past presidents shined during the last year of their term in office, you were equally skilled throughout all 8 years. People will remember the horrible time of 9/11. People will remember who was in charge of leading an attack against the 9/11 perpetrators and how we never captured the head of that gang of thugs. People will remember how we then went to war against Iraq with no timely, truthful reason. People will remember the scandals of your CEO buddies who either went to jail or died before conviction, for fraud. People will remember the mortgage scandal, the Gitmo scandal, the torture scandal, the secrecy of your administration. People will remember the elections of 2000 and 2004 where severe cheating occurred but could never be proven. People will remember the smirk, the quips, the choking on a pretzel, the antics of your Vice President and your inability to speak with candor and honesty and be calm in doing so. People will remember your saber-rattling with Iran & North Korea while ignoring Darfur, Pakistan and the re-emergence of the Taliban within Afghanistan. People will remember the record national debt, the $1 TRILLION spent on your war while vetoing domestic bills to help our children, the poor, elderly and the military veterans, some of who fought for you in your war.
Your recent rhetoric on Iran in the face of the facts from the recently released NIE results simply begs the world to plead with you to let it go, let Ahmadinejad proclaim victory, let him have his moment. You & I both know that it was you who drove the NIE report to the surface.
Enjoy your last year in office, in peace. Soon, you'll be able to kick back and enjoy life on the ranch and have more than 200+ days of vacation per year. Maybe you can then work on Vladimir to retire, as well. You guys deserve the time off.
You can't stop WWIII just because there's no reason to fight it. It goes against everything neo-Con and neo-Lib, and that's who control the US and will after the next election, regardless of which frontrunner wins from either Party.