Do you think America is doomed?
That's the question I was asked at a speaking engagement in Iowa recently. The conference brought together legislators, educators and businesspeople from the 13 Midwest states that face a big problem: automation of agriculture, together with the offshoring of manufacturing, means a net population loss for them. Young people are leaving because they don't see exciting job opportunities.
The interrogator had, she said, heard speeches for the last few weeks all touching on America's educational under-achievement, the rise of China and the demographic crunch ahead. Every speaker she heard spelled out -- in gruesome statistical detail -- the end of American hegemony. Did that mean America was doomed?
There is a revivalist rhetoric that predominates on the business speaking circuit. First, the speaker threatens hellfire and damnation, using lots of statistics and charts to describe the economic catastrophe ahead. And then he (it usually is a he) outlines the path of salvation which involves reinvention, re-engineering, restructuring and revival. This is an ancient rhetoric because it seems to work: you don't get people to change (or expensive consulting assignments) without first scaring everyone to death.
It's exciting rhetoric but I think it's becoming increasingly unhelpful and outdated. It's just like our political rhetoric: too polarized and too simplistic. This kind of language colors the question and excludes good thinking.
No, I don't think America is doomed. Not because I am smug or complacent but because I don't believe that dominance is the only acceptable form of economic success. Do I think that our role in the global economy has to change? Yes, of course it does. We are going to have to learn how to do business as partners, not overlords. We have to get used to negotiating with others as equals, not minions. We have a lot of work to do to adapt to the idea that other nations and other cultures have something -- quite a lot actually -- to teach us. And we have to get over the idea that being top dog is the only game in town. And we need to find that challenge exciting, not humiliating.
Yes, it's a tall order. But we have a lot going for us. I think America has (at least) three fantastic assets that are intrinsic and hard to copy. First, Americans still believe in education and avail themselves of it throughout their lifetimes. Americans never stop studying, which is why we have institutions that provide learning to anyone at any age. This is a fantastic asset, especially in an age where everyone will have to keep learning a lot forever.
Second, America is the most diverse culture in the world. And that spurs creativity. When it comes to innovation, what do you need? Diversity. Why? Because different kinds of people, with different experiences of life and learning, can see more solutions to a problem. Put a hundred engineers from the same background and same university in the room and you may as well just have one. Put a hundred Americans in the room and you will find a quality of cross-fertilization that will blow your mind. And, while we're at it, let's not forget women. The advanced position of women in American culture means that they get into that room, too (albeit at lower pay).
Finally, America has entrepreneurial DNA which is the envy of every country I have ever visited or worked in. Time and again, I'm asked by governments: what makes America so entrepreneurial -- and how can we copy it? I find it hard to answer that question because, for me, entrepreneurship is a state of mind, hard to teach (though I try) and impossible to force. America's just full of people with the courage and optimism to take risks and try something new. And that is self-perpetuating: the more you try, the more you succeed and the more optimistic you become.
So no, I don't think America is doomed -- unless it cleaves to old macho values. Dominance is not the only form of success and it may not even be a very good form of success. Go to the Netherlands, to Germany, to Australia, to Ireland and there you will find cultures and economies that don't dominate anyone but contribute fruitfully to a global economy. I've been there, I've worked there and these aren't people who feel doomed or defeated. Quite the opposite: they are rightly proud that their success is not measured by everyone else's failure.