Do You Think America is Doomed?

Do you think America is doomed?

That's the question I was asked at a speaking engagement in Iowa recently. The conference brought together legislators, educators and businesspeople from the 13 Midwest states that face a big problem: automation of agriculture, together with the offshoring of manufacturing, means a net population loss for them. Young people are leaving because they don't see exciting job opportunities.

The interrogator had, she said, heard speeches for the last few weeks all touching on America's educational under-achievement, the rise of China and the demographic crunch ahead. Every speaker she heard spelled out -- in gruesome statistical detail -- the end of American hegemony. Did that mean America was doomed?

There is a revivalist rhetoric that predominates on the business speaking circuit. First, the speaker threatens hellfire and damnation, using lots of statistics and charts to describe the economic catastrophe ahead. And then he (it usually is a he) outlines the path of salvation which involves reinvention, re-engineering, restructuring and revival. This is an ancient rhetoric because it seems to work: you don't get people to change (or expensive consulting assignments) without first scaring everyone to death.

It's exciting rhetoric but I think it's becoming increasingly unhelpful and outdated. It's just like our political rhetoric: too polarized and too simplistic. This kind of language colors the question and excludes good thinking.

No, I don't think America is doomed. Not because I am smug or complacent but because I don't believe that dominance is the only acceptable form of economic success. Do I think that our role in the global economy has to change? Yes, of course it does. We are going to have to learn how to do business as partners, not overlords. We have to get used to negotiating with others as equals, not minions. We have a lot of work to do to adapt to the idea that other nations and other cultures have something -- quite a lot actually -- to teach us. And we have to get over the idea that being top dog is the only game in town. And we need to find that challenge exciting, not humiliating.

Yes, it's a tall order. But we have a lot going for us. I think America has (at least) three fantastic assets that are intrinsic and hard to copy. First, Americans still believe in education and avail themselves of it throughout their lifetimes. Americans never stop studying, which is why we have institutions that provide learning to anyone at any age. This is a fantastic asset, especially in an age where everyone will have to keep learning a lot forever.

Second, America is the most diverse culture in the world. And that spurs creativity. When it comes to innovation, what do you need? Diversity. Why? Because different kinds of people, with different experiences of life and learning, can see more solutions to a problem. Put a hundred engineers from the same background and same university in the room and you may as well just have one. Put a hundred Americans in the room and you will find a quality of cross-fertilization that will blow your mind. And, while we're at it, let's not forget women. The advanced position of women in American culture means that they get into that room, too (albeit at lower pay).

Finally, America has entrepreneurial DNA which is the envy of every country I have ever visited or worked in. Time and again, I'm asked by governments: what makes America so entrepreneurial -- and how can we copy it? I find it hard to answer that question because, for me, entrepreneurship is a state of mind, hard to teach (though I try) and impossible to force. America's just full of people with the courage and optimism to take risks and try something new. And that is self-perpetuating: the more you try, the more you succeed and the more optimistic you become.

So no, I don't think America is doomed -- unless it cleaves to old macho values. Dominance is not the only form of success and it may not even be a very good form of success. Go to the Netherlands, to Germany, to Australia, to Ireland and there you will find cultures and economies that don't dominate anyone but contribute fruitfully to a global economy. I've been there, I've worked there and these aren't people who feel doomed or defeated. Quite the opposite: they are rightly proud that their success is not measured by everyone else's failure.

Comments

[swift goat pet for truth]

Doomed is rather harsh.
Degenerating at a rapid rate is more like it. Headed for another Gilded Age.

I'll put my money where my mouth is. I'm looking to move.

[TOOO]

I have a feeling that the US will go the way of the USSR - It will go bankrupt (financially as well as morally), then be reborn as Something Else.

But that something else will (probably) be a lot smaller. Will there be a Confederacy alongside a much smaller Union? I don't know. Will foreign powers buy up whole states? It's possible.

But the time of superpowers is over. Bush the Lesser has seen to that by putting the US 9 TRILLION in the hole. "The United States of America" will end up in the Dustbin of History, probably before 2100. (Anyone remember that there will be a 22nd Century?)

And maybe that's not a bad thing.

[Cathexis]

"America" is not doomed.

Neoconservative Imperialism *is* doomed; however, Neocon Imperialism is not America -- despite what these folks would have us believe.

We don't "blame America first" because the ignorant, bigoted fools who screw things up are not, and never were, "America," though they may wrap themselves in the flag and posture as such.

[SD61]

Technology will save humanity from itself. I know this isn't a popular concept, because it hasn't been understood fully by the masses.

Imagine a life where you can go anywhere you want, eat at any restaurant, commune and party with anybody and everybody at virtually the touch of a button; learn continually, graduate from any educational program that exists, fight battles, explore hidden worlds, compete and win the hand of a fair maiden; build political empires, canoe down the Amazon...

All these activities exist in your mind--because your entire Earth-bound experience exists in your mind. Your eyes, when you view the Egyptian pyramids, merely send electro-chemical signals to your brain; your leg muscles, as you walk in the Sahara sands, send nerve signals to your brain; your skin, feeling the chilly wind of Anarctica, sends signals to your brain; your hands, feeling the warmth of your lover's embrace, send signals to your brain...

Get it yet? All this can be simulated, by enormously powerful computers--which are already in the plans and in some cases already being built, to the point where you will not know -- or be able to know -- the difference between "old reality" and "new reality".

The new reality, call it "virtual" if you like, will set us all free to live lives unhampered by greed, war, and myopic political leaders. Read Ray Kurzweil's books to find out more:

http://www.useless-knowledge.com/1234/06jan/article049.html

This is the only path out, by the way, because the "old reality" IS doomed. But we won't suffer for long, just as the caterpillar doesn't crawl for long before it embarks on a new life as a butterfly.

[Catfish]

The American idea is dead.

It died with Bush II. It died when we decided it's OK to detain people without representation and torture them.

It died with preemptive war

It died with the death of habeas corpus.

It died when we saw that the electoral college is a system to be gamed.

It died with the death of a watchdog media.

Margaret you keep telling yourself we're still great. You and Roy Spence just keep repeating it. Keep on clapping while the world passes us by.

Waiter!!! a double please.

[Sundialsvc4]

Margaret, I think that we're going to find out that we have been lead by some very well-entrenched criminals for a lot of years. "Ike" Eisenhower warned us of this, and for a while it was good although we probably knew that it was too good to be true. Information didn't flow then as it does now.

Doomed? Most certainly not! But yes, wounded by these crimes. I believe that our generation must now do what all of the preceding ones did: step up to the plate, accept collective responsibility for what has gone wrong, and work within the well established system (it DOES still work!) to FORCE change and to ENFORCE law.

We do not have to put up with lawlessness; "being impeached" is at the very least simply "you're fired," to be followed by, "and you're under arrest." You knew the game when we handed you the big keys. To whom much is given, much is required.

It's up to us. We must clean house, and we must keep it clean thereafter, blaming no one but ourselves.

"United we stand." That's what it means. "A house divided cannot stand," and there are those who strive to divide us from within, thus to render us impotent. We are, though, "one nation indivisible," exactly to the extent that we demand to be.

"Doomed?" "NUTS!"

[leftLibertarian]

Is America Doomed?

Let's see. We have punk fascists Bush and Cheney start a war base on lies and erode our civil liberties.

We have a Democratic Party, the so-called 'opposition party,' without the backbone to either impeach these criminals or end the war.

What do you think?

[January]

Yes, America is doomed. But not very soon. In 4.5 billion years our star, the sun, will expand.

My point is that it is up to us to endure. Who would dare to guess what our descendants, even just American ones if there be such, might be doing or thinking 200 years from now? We are not taking care of our habitat, our nest, our home.

The notion that we can consume and excrete with impunity is such a primitive idea that even our ancestors knew better. The industrial­/scientifi­c revolution gave us the means to drown in our own crap. That's because science is only good for getting what you want. It cannot tell us anything about what we should want.

How about some justice? Let it "roll down from the hills like water" said the prophets of old. Our doom will come long before the sun burns out if we don't start caring about justice.

[macguyver]

your house is on fire, but rather than put out the fire, you just lower the smoke detector. it goes off again & you lower it some more. 4 times you do this until now your head is in the smoke. is it time to worry yet? no.... the time to worry was long ago when the fire first started.

this is what has happened to the US. each time we have hit the debt ceiling in this country, we just raise it some more. 2002,'03,'04 & '06 until it has reached its current level of just under $10 trillion. it's expected to reach $11.5 trillion by the time bush leaves office. it took this country the first 213 years to get to the first $3 trillion & bush managed to do it within his first term in office.

my stock has been doing really well. this is not to brag, but to make the point that with the exception of apple (AAPL), all of my stock is in foreign companies. canadian gold mine, chinese telecom & euro mutual fund. the other great investment i made was in titanium (TIE) just after bush got into office. i knew we'd go to war, but didn't want to invest in defense stock. TIE shot up over 8377.1% in the last 5 years before i sold it last year. i took warren buffet's advice 4 years ago & got my money out of dollars to convert it to foreign currency. amazing that we got a 12-20 % return just by abandoning the dollar. i should be happy, but this all scares me to death since i live in california. is this country falling that fast against the rest of the world?

it's a sad commentary when taking your money out of this country is the only way to stay afloat.

[frankp37]

This whole idea of diversity has been massively overpromoted as is the idea that women need to do everything. The author obviously knows nothing about engineering to claim that more diversity is going to solve a problem. In fact, a large engineering problem is going to be broken up into pieces and the biggest issue would be coordinating. Groups that are like minded have a clear advantage, which is why the Germans and Japanese and other like minded groups have often beaten Americans. Women like Heffernan who so assertively promote issues they know little about and are plainly wrong about are exactly why the US is falling behind. I'm from Detroit myself and other than racial politics, and benefits for old people the biggest issue is sexual politics. Young men are all but told to take a walk. To these women I say enjoy your time in power as it will be short and end badly.

[Marlyn]

"Go to the Netherlands, to Germany, to Australia, to Ireland and there you will find cultures and economies that don't dominate anyone but contribute fruitfully to a global economy."

YES, they are doing fine. But the USA is not. Just take health care, for example. These nations provide it FREE to all. But what are the chances of that happening here, when both Hillary and Obama have proposed a health care system that locks insurance and the profit motive in? NIL.

Even the military has been privatized. Blackwater is the USA equivalent of the Nazi SS.

The US government is dictated to by the corporations who tell our representatives in congress how to write the laws, laws which favor them, not the people.
YES, the USA is now a fascist state and the people are doomed.

[Brainoverbraun]

I agree with your article for the most part but must point out that the US is hardly the most culturally diverse country in the world.

Your TV shows your colours - how many Indian or Asian folks to you see on TV - and of course all folks from the middle east are pretty much impossible to find. Even reality TV is predominantly white - you rarely see a black person let alone other minorities.

Where is this multiculturalism of which you speak??

[seawolf77]

Lest we not forget American oil won WW1 and WW2. American oil made America great. American oil peaked in 1970. We have been living on borrowed time ever since, and now that borrowing just got a lot more expensive. Our leaders have committed us to an Imperialist strategy that all of you embraced when you re-elected W, specifically the Christian Right. When the chickens come home to roost they'll be cock a doodle doing all over the hood of your 5000 lb SUV.

[rlehman]

America isn't doomed. The American "Empire" is doomed. Rome will fall though bits and pieces will remain forever.

[realitytrumpsbull]

One day, the robots will come...the­y will
rise out of the pacific after their long
journey from Japan, some lost on the ocean
floor forever, but thousands of others taking
their place...th­ey will reshape our continent
to best facilitate the production of more
robots...p­uny overambitious carbon-based
waterbags will not stop the Aibo advance...