Super Tuesday Surprise! Santorum Now Has a Woman Problem

Republican women may have flirted with Rick Santorum, but they're now less interested in going all the way. In the early contests, Santorum did better with women than with men. And he did better relative to Romney with women than with men. As Republican leaders have become increasingly extreme on women's issues, Santorum's chief backer made an outrageously offensive comment, and Santorum's own extreme social views came under close scrutiny, Santorum's standing with women worsened. Now, his early strength with women has become a weakness.

The table below shows the gender gap in Santorum's vote share in each contest, according to exit polls. The third column is the difference between Santorum's vote share among men and women. A positive number means women voted in larger numbers for Santorum than did men. The last column shows the gender difference in Romney's advantage over Santorum. A positive number means Romney did better against Santorum with women than with men, but it doesn't necessarily mean Romney beat Santorum with women in that state. States without exit polls (CO, MN, MO, ME, WA, ID, AK) and without a real contest (VA) are omitted. Everything below the line took place after Santorum began to falter on women's issues.

In the first three states, Santorum did better with women than men (a +4, +3, +6 gender gap), and the Romney-Santorum gap was larger with men than women (-2, -2, -3).

But Super Tuesday these two patterns reversed. Yesterday Santorum only did better with women than men in two states, Georgia and Oklahoma, not coincidentally the two states where Gingrich fared best. (Gingrich, for obvious reasons, does less well with women than men, and has in just about every state so far with available exit polling.) And in all the Super Tuesday exit polling (again, aside from Georgia and Oklahoma), the Romney minus Santorum gap was larger with women than with men.

This woman problem is not just Santorum's burden, though. While women make up a majority of the general electorate, they have only been the majority of Republican primary voters in two states so far -- Oklahoma and Arizona. Santorum may be losing ground with women, but the Republican Party as a whole isn't doing much better.

 

Follow Margie Omero on Twitter: www.twitter.com/MargieOmero

Comments

[southern drawl]

06:20 AM on 03/20/2012

Men that have married for less than eight to ten years won't understand this, but after this long you're either divorced or punched your ticket and riding the hormone express, yes the rollar coaster,,married politicians are not exempt,,,,this is where,,,your wife wants to drive the train, she drives it,,,she wants to ride the train she rides,,,,,whatever she decides, you work with that and the express goes alot smoother down the tracks,,,,,,

[pugszb]

04:15 PM on 03/18/2012

Ya think?

[Snoopie141]

01:23 AM on 03/13/2012

What alot of "Christians" dont get is that there are a large number of marriages where they are a respectful, loving, equal marriage that doenst involve a church at all. Where the man would die for his wife and her him. Where they provide happy loving homes for their children. Where they cherish each other, help each other. These couples dont want your religion or your beliefs pushed upon them. It makes you no better then the t,al,iban. These couples enjoy loving their partners and want to do it more than to procreate. When you start allowing these laws as these that going through state & Fed governments, you have basically became just like those despised muslims you speak out about. And a version of Sharia law isnt too far off.

[lorenzo48]

02:22 PM on 03/12/2012

This is so surprising that Santorum and the Republican party are losing ground with women. Their entire platform consists of moving womens rights back to the 1850's, Their next big jobs plan consists of making birth control and teleprompters illegal and taking away them darn womens right to vote. This should garner them a large increase in support from the fairer sex come election time.

[myth1958]

01:30 PM on 03/08/2012

Margie Omero may have the polling numbers, but I have a gut feeling about the impact women voters will have in the Fall: this anti-women trash talk by the GOP field will absolutely kill them in a direct matchup with President Obama. All four of the remaining Republican candidates virtually sided with Limbaugh over his libelous comments about Sandra Fluke, while Obama actually called her and offered her support. On contraceptive coverage, the incumbent stood with women - not churches - when push came to shove. Since a higher percentage of women have or do use birth control than attend church regularly, it would seem that Obama should solidify his female support by reminding all of us what he has done as the election gets into full gear. Even conservative women - church women included - use birth control, and will likely compare the president's actions against the words coming from Romney, Santorum, Gingrich and Paul. The latter group seems fish-out-of-waterish about what women want and need: the former - blessed with a fine partner who is surely his equal in their marriage - knows right from wrong, and acts accordingly.

[trumbull desi]

03:58 PM on 03/12/2012

Excellently stated. Fanned.

[ennis438]

09:20 AM on 03/08/2012

The majority of women do not want santorum or his ilk to enter their bedrooms and make personal decisions for them. Whether it is contraception, abortion or any other health issue, women are perfectly able to make up their own minds without right wing loonies telling them what to do.

[somebody9191]

08:26 AM on 03/08/2012

"Republican women may have flirted with Rick Santorum, but they're now less interested in going all the way" - There is too much santorum involved!

[abscs2000]

08:49 AM on 03/08/2012

Go all the way?? Not unless they're married to him. It's all about procreation, remember??

[Akshay Singh]

08:10 AM on 03/08/2012

I hope they know they can vote Democrat too.

[trumbull desi]

03:59 PM on 03/12/2012

We most certainly do!!

[Addction]

06:15 AM on 03/08/2012

Part of this is the media and their extolling the joy of free love (sex), and even the joy of divorce. Every television show has people having multiple partners, sex outside of marriage, and no disappointment. But the reality is that the Bible is right. Ask most women and they will tell you they were disappointed with giving away their virginity to someone it really didn't matter to. Ask people about how emotionally satisfying their love and sex lives are, and you may notice a pause. Making sex about sex and not about love and marriage I believe creates more problems than it solves. Have defined household roles, and a couple is happier. If a man does not treat a woman as he treats his church he will not have a happy wife, nor will she be content with him running the household. Being in a Christian marriage I can tell you they can work great, but you still must be partners.

[Joyousnc]

06:51 AM on 03/08/2012

I agree with you. Women today are fed a bunch of garbage lies about what will make them happy. The greatest freedom I found is when I STOPPED LISTENING to that trash and started living in God's freedom. God is a greatest advocate of women. Before Him, men and women are equal in worth and dignity. He just places men higher in AUTHORITY-not all men, but your husband, etc. Some abuse this, but I think women can be equally abusive-especially verbally.

[abscs2000]

09:03 AM on 03/08/2012

Do you and Addction live in the same bubble? How sad for you both.

[Belle Starr]

09:27 AM on 03/08/2012

I support your choice as you believe is right, but don't try to take away my right to live my life as I see fit.

[huff reader]

08:38 AM on 03/08/2012

"Part of this is the media and their extolling the joy of free love (sex), and even the joy of divorce. Every television show has people having multiple partners, sex outside of marriage, and no disappointment."

The media reflect the society, not vice versa. There's no money to be made by steering the society one way or the other. There is money to be made, addressing topics that concern the most viewers. The media pander to that, not the other way around.

"But the reality is that the Bible is right."

Depends upon how you define that statement. The Bible is demonstrably self-contradictory. In that sense, it cannot be 'right'. On the other hand, I happen to believe that the crucial message that is left by the Bible is correct; we must learn to live with each other and treat each other with love, kindness, and respect, or our species won't survive. That message assumed a new urgency in 1945 with the development of nuclear weapons. If we don't grow up soon, we won't be here...

"Ask most women and they will tell you they were disappointed with giving away their virginity to someone it really didn't matter to."

That may well be true. None of us feel good about our mistakes. But we have to grow up sometime, and we never learn much about our world until we interact with it. As soon as we do that, we are guaranteed to make mistakes.

[chatnuptime1]

06:58 PM on 03/10/2012

Huff reader and so is the Torah and so is the Quran. Immorality can and does have very severe consequences on society. But outside of all that. Do we want a government legislating over and having power over our most private affairs? I hear people screaming about consipiricies to make us a Marxism, communist, and socialist. What do you call a government you create to control even what you do in your own bed? Totaltarianism? Are we ready to surrender our reproductivie ability for good or bad to the dictates of a political agency?

A government for the people by the people to be self governable means just that. Individually we have to learn to govern our own house, our own lives, and raise our young to do the same. Not, I repeat not, become shameless in lusts of our hearts and wants and let someone else pay the consequences as it appears to be the case now. And not to surrender our inaliable rights and freedom to the Government to choose for us because we percieve we are to inept to rule our own passions.

[chatnuptime1]

07:12 PM on 03/10/2012

As Paul said.. There are things that are legal or lawful to do but that doesn't mean you should do it. When I was a kid getting into those hormonal teen years my father said to me." Son. I want you to learn that there are things in life that can get the better of us in this life. Sexuality is one of them. You have the power to make children and a future. I gave that power to my wife and she made you and your sisters. And that is all fine and good. But we did so knowing we had a responsibilty to you and to each other regarding you and your siblings. I won't tell you to have kids or how many. But I want you to know that when ever you take a women to bed the possibilty is always out there that you will give her power to make your kids. I hope that you will use it wisely. I hope that you will not sorrow or that your children don't sorrow because you turned your turned your back on your women and your issue that you charged to make your offspring. The whole world sorrows because men do this. Don't bring your family name to shame and do it yourself."

[tavvie]

03:20 AM on 03/08/2012

R is for Rickey and R is for Reverse...as in getting FAR away from Rickey

[Elijah Hathaway]

07:48 AM on 03/08/2012

AMEN! That guy scares me more than anyone else. If you don't understand the seperation of church and state you have no place running for office in the USA!

[sawadee2000]

12:30 AM on 03/08/2012

GOP are faced with a God awful choice. Every single one of the clowns running for the nomination is unworthy of any woman's respect....or support.

[huff reader]

08:27 AM on 03/08/2012

Exactly.

[DoTheMath]

07:29 PM on 03/10/2012

Nonsense, they are welcome to vote for President Obama. Of course, they'll need to wait for the general election, but how many self-respecting women thought they'd find a great candidate in this year's GOTP primary?

[kiran1207]

12:25 AM on 03/08/2012

sAntorum now has a woman problem?? ha ha yea of course he's gay!

[glendadover]

02:13 PM on 03/10/2012

It looks to me they all do. Alot of Republican women don't seem to be voting.

[Carisa BrockFarrington]

12:03 AM on 03/08/2012

Unfortunately, in the states where Santorum did better with women than men (Oklahoma and Georgia), the idea of women being seen and not heard is still prevalent. What's even more unfortunate is that idea is voiced (very loudly and very rudely) by women with very fundamentally out-dated Christian backgrounds. I am from Oklahoma, and if it wasn't for having parents who understood that being a strong woman is key to having a strong future, I would've listened to all the malarkey those women in our church (and even in my school) tried to force feed me when I talked about going to college and building a career before I got married. I am disappointed that Santorum (and even Terry) did as well as they did in my home state, but I'm not seriously surprised.

[Snoopie141]

12:31 AM on 03/08/2012

Doesnt help that we have a antiwoman leader Mary Fallin as governor. I pray she wont be here for a 2nd term.

[Carisa BrockFarrington]

01:08 AM on 03/08/2012

I hope not either. I watched her on the news talking about how we, as a state, should back Santorum because he's the kind of leader we need. *GAG* I seriously don't understand how a woman could be so chauvinistic! Why she isn't watched more by the watchdog groups here is beyond me. She's in the same category with her pal Bachmann; the only difference between the two is that Fallin hasn't had as many cameras pointed in her direction so her prejudices aren't as publicized.

[abscs2000]

09:13 AM on 03/08/2012

I really admire you and carisa. It can't have been easy!! You should really be proud of yourselves. F & F

[abscs2000]

09:07 AM on 03/08/2012

CK out the posts a few above this if you want to talk "fundamentally out-dated"!! These women are one step away from Neanderthal!

How lucky you were to have had the parents you did!! F & F

[Honeybabe1]

11:02 PM on 03/07/2012

ok men, time to add more feminine energy, knowledge and courage to our equation as a nation and in the world too. really, it's time.

[roudy]

12:28 AM on 03/08/2012

Since women make up 53% of all voters at the national level, It would seem women have some responsibility here in the matter. Seems odd that women still feel they have to get permission from men in order to have a larger role in this country and in the world. Just do it.

[abscs2000]

09:15 AM on 03/08/2012

If you check out some of the above postings from fundamental women, you will be appalled! F & F

[huff reader]

08:40 AM on 03/08/2012

Have at it! Please!

YOU are the majority.

USE IT.

[realsurfin]

10:18 PM on 03/07/2012

With each passing month the GOP machine alienates another large voting block. Young woman and old should be watching this closely. They are going to take away your retirement, and health care, and reproductive rights. Its in the GOP's Ideology. Especially since the Corporations are pulling the strings on who gets elected. They are throwing money at the candidates and money wins most of the time. they are planning and playing on greed.

Woman Young and Old should be watching. There are many young 21st century women that are educated. They have to vote. They have to go to the poles. There are many older women. they should be watching. If they cut your Social Security and medicare and your husband passes. Where are you going to find the money to make ends meet? "The Job Creators" at what age do the "Job Creators" stop hiring because of the bottom line? Do you want to work endless hours for minimum wage? Senior woman know that they need hormones. They should be paying close attention to what is at stake and not read so deep into the social arguments but what those arguments are masking. What are they actually trying to remove? promiscuity? or the real reason is to remove an expense, the hormones, birth control pills, estrogen... the bottom line at the expense of the less fortunate.

the drama is for distraction. The politics supports the stage

VOTE LIKE YOUR IN THE 21st CENTURY, PARTY IN NOVEMBER.