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Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal

Posted: September 11, 2008 12:24 PM

9/11 Lunchtime Status Update

What's Your Reaction:

Since noon yesterday, we have logged a 14 new statewide surveys in the presidential race. Most continue to show evidence of the post convention bounce favoring the McCain-Palin ticket, and two more states have now shifted in the lean McCain column on our summary map:

  • A new Rasmussen Reports survey in North Dakota showing McCain leading by a 14-point margin (55% to 41%) moves that state from toss-up to lean McCain, a significantly different result from any of the previous five public polls released in that state this year.
  • Two new surveys in Florida, from Quinnipiac and InsiderAdvantage showing McCain leading by 7 (50% to 43%) and 8 points (50% to 42%) respectively, nudge our Florida classification to lean McCain.

That shift adds another 30 electoral votes to McCain's total on our map, which now stands at 224 to Barack Obama's 243 (with 270 needed to win). At the beginning of this week, our map -- which reflected the polling from before the Republican convention -- showed Obama with a 260 to 194 electoral vote lead.

Also, of the 14 surveys out in the previous 24 hours, 10 were tracking polls that following up on prior polls conducted by the same pollsters before the Republican convention. Nine (9) of the 10 show net movement in McCain's direction (the exception is the new Quinnipiac survey of Ohio). All 10 show McCain's share of the vote increasing by at least a single percentage point.

Thus, we continue to show evidence of the same post-convention bounce for McCain evident since earlier in the week in the national tracking polls.

 

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