05/16/2008 11:38 pm ET | Updated May 25, 2011

AAPOR 2008: Michael Traugott - Primary Polling Committee

Another in my series of interviews conducted at this week's AAPOR Conference, this one with Michael Traugott, chair of AAPOR's Special Committee on 2008 Primary Polling:

Related - Politico's Daniel Libit also filed a story today that touches on AAPOR's special committee:

In the wake of New Hampshire’s polling glitch, AAPOR convened a task force to study what had gone awry. Though its report has not been finalized, the task force’s head, University of Michigan professor Michael Traugott, says the evidence has yet to point to any “smoking gun.” [...]

AAPOR had hoped to publish the task force findings before this weekend’s convention, but Traugott says the work has been stalled by the hesitancy of pollsters to submit their methods and practices for peer review. He expects to report by mid-to-late summer, providing enough time before the general election for pollsters to tweak their methodology or improve their voter-screening questions.

“It does make for a challenge when you have public pollsters who won’t share their methods appropriately with others,” says Rob Daves, a past AAPOR president. “Science is based on transparency, and I’m not just talking about social science.”