THE BLOG

Another Update: PA Results by Race, Education and Gender

04/11/2008 04:11 pm ET | Updated May 25, 2011

After posting results on Wednesday from the lastest Quinnipiac University surveys of Pennsylvania by race and education, I asked Quinnipiac pollster Doug Schwartz if he could break the white subgroups out by gender. Since their sample sizes of likely Democratic primary voters are relatively large (n=1,340-1,549 on the three most recent surveys), even relatively small subgroups in Pennsylvania like white college educated men and women (typically 12% and 13% of the Quinnipiac samples respectively) still yield at least 150 interviews.

These data are mostly consistent with my analysis on Wednesday. For example, the vote preference among non-college educated white men and women is currently right about where it was in mid to late February. However, it is apparent that Hillary Clinton does better among women than among men, even after controlling for education level. Numerically, Obama appears to do slightly better know among college educated women (46%) than in February (37-39%), although the difference is not quite big enough to be statistically significant given the smaller sample size.

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The Hillary Clinton favorable ratings have been mostly stable since February. Although the table shows a numeric decrease in her favorable rating among college educated white men over the last few surveys, it is not quite large enough (given the sample sizes) to be statistically meaningful.

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Barack Obama's favorable rating, however does show signs of change. His rating among white men without a college education have picked up significantly from 44% in February to 52% in mid-March to 60% on the most recent survey. Among other subgroups, Obama's favorable rating has been mostly flat.

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