I have a late appointment that will keep me off the grid until just before the polls close in Kentucky at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Even then, I've got sole responsibility for the MysteryChildren (ages 3 and 5) as the MysterySpouse is out of town at a conference this evening. So "live blogging" is likely going to be pretty sparse tonight.
However, consider this an open-thread for all comments about what the exit polls will have to tell us about the results in Kentucky and Oregon. Here are the links where exit poll tabulations will appear shortly after the polls close in each state
All other comments will be in reverse chronological order. All times Eastern.
11:12 - For anyone not watching one of the cable networks, NBC, CNN and Fox have all projected Barack Obama the winner in Oregon. I'm headed to sleep
10:58 - The Fox News web site appears to have put up the Oregon poll up a few minutes early. They show a roughly 13 point Obama lead: 56% to 42%. Keep in mind, as per the original update below, this is a telephone poll of early voters conducted over the last few days.
7:05 - Mark Lindeman has done his usual extrapolation from the exit poll cross-tabulations currently being displayed the network web sites, and they currently reflect a 65% Clinton, 29% Obama margin.
The usual caveats: These initial tabulations are weighted to an estimate of the result that is usually a mashup of pre-election polls and the interviews exit polls conducted at polling places and over the phone (with early voters) by the networks. These estimates improve, becoming more accurate over the course of the night. Click here for more detail on how these numbers are derived and how they improve over the course of the evening.
7:00 - The networks call Kentucky for Clinton.
4:26 Incidentally, in Oregon, where all votes are cast by mail,** the survey conducted by the networks is not technically an "exit" poll. They conduct supplemental surveys by telephone in the days leading up to the election in many states with significant early voting (such as North Carolina, Texas and California). They ask the same questions by telephone that voters get on "exit" poll questionnaires administered at polling places. In Oregon, however, all interviews have been done by telephone.
**Not quite says Mark Lindeman (in the comments) with a "metaphysical clarification . . . although Oregon has a Vote By Mail system, voters can deliver their ballots by hand until the polls close tonight."