In the last 24 hours, we have logged eight new statewide polls in the presidential race, two in North Carolina (from SurveyUSA and PPP), and one each in Florida (PPP), Michigan (Strategic Vision), Montana (Rasmussen), Oklahoma (SurveyUSA), New Jersey (Fairleigh Dickinson University) and Wisconsin (Strategic Vision). Follow the links for more details.
Seven of the polls are follow-ups to surveys conducted prior to the Republican convention, and all but the New Jersey survey show a net improvement in the vote margin in John McCain's favor (and that survey shows big jumps for both Obama and McCain since June). The net shift in the margin in McCain's favor in three surveys (the two from PPP and the Wisconsin poll by Strategic Vision) and double-digits in three others.
These new polls change our categorizations in two states (and bumps up McCain's electoral vote total from 179 to 194):
Also, a new survey in the Alaska senate race by Moore Information (R) conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Campaign moves alas from strong Democrat to toss-up.
At least one site has pointed to our summary presidential map as evidence of a continuing Obama lead in the electoral college. While we appreciate the attention, it is worth keeping in mind that the electoral vote totals -- and the statewide estimates on which they are based -- are based mostly on polls conducted before the Republican convention, and as such, are lagging the latest national results. When there is a suddent and significant change in vote preference, it usually takes more than a single poll in a given state to shift our categorization. So if the bump up in McCain's support persists, we should continue to see states shift in his direction over the next week or so.
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