"Outliers:" Push-Poll Free Edition

Frank Newport challenges
Barack Obama's comments about "poll driven positions" and thinks a Time Magazine polling box "gets it
backwards" regarding recent slippage. [Note: our chart based on trial heats without
Gore included as a candidate now shows a small recent decline in Clinton's support
nationally].

Kathy
Frankovic reviews the data on the greater attentiveness and knowledge of likely
primary voters in Iowa and New Hampshire (and if you are a political junkie,
the full CBS News report
on the recent CBS/New York Times surveys
in Iowa and New Hampshire surveys is a must read).

Ross
Douthat spots the most important numbers about the Republican caucuses in Iowa in that same CBS/NYT poll (via Sullivan).

Gary
Langer crunches the numbers for "latest [sub]group du jour," single women
and concludes that married women are "much more likely to be true swing voters."

Jennifer
Agiesta looks at the gender gap in presidential preference among African
American Democrats.

Bill
Schneider looks at the record of polls taken a year before the
election.

Garance
Franke-Ruta links to some incredibly thematic maps displaying results of
the 2004 Iowa Caucuses (via The
Stump).

An
NYU journalism class surveys NYU students and finds Obama ahead (via Ben
Smith).