Ready To Be Chief?

My NationalJournal.com column, on perceptions of Barack Obama's experience and readiness to be president and their importance to the outcome of the race, is now posted online.

One additional thought on this subject is that, as with favorable ratings, the wording of questions and answer categories can be affect the results. So consider two very similar "commander in chief" questions asked about Obama and McCain this week:

Washington Post/ABC News (n=1,119 adults) - Q20a. Please tell me whether the following statement applies to (Obama/McCain), or not?: He would be a good commander-in-chief of the military.

Obama: 48% yes, 48% no, 4% no opinion

McCain: 72% yes, 25% no, 4% no opinion

New York Times/CBS News (n=1,796 adults) - Q27/Q36. Regardless of how you intend to vote for president in 2008, how likely do you think it is that (Barack Obama/John McCain) would be an effective commander-in-chief of the nation's military — would you say it is very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all?

Obama: 24% very likely, 47% somewhat likely, 7% not too likely, 6% not at all, 6% don't know

McCain: 46% very likely, 36% somewhat likely, 9% not too likely, 7% not at all, 3% don't know

The column makes the point that these numbers make more sense in context with past results. The Post/ABC poll release included comparable results on the same questions asked about George Bush and Al Gore eight years ago, and I discuss those in the column.