As most readers of our site know all to well, we had new national survey releases yesterday from USA Today/Gallup, CBS News, ABC/Washington Post and CNN, as well as the three daily tracking surveys. These surveys , along with the daily tracking surveys from Gallup, Rasmussen Reports and Diageo-Hotline, show a significant "bounce" for the McCain-Palin ticket.
As of this writing, our standard trend line estimates show McCain edging ahead of Obama by less than a percentage point (47.1% to 46.4%). Earlier in the week, we had the national trend rated as "strong Obama." Yesterday it shifted to "toss-up" status.
We also have the first wave of new statewide results from Rasmussen Reports and Fox News in five battleground states (Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia), from PPP in MIchigan, from SurveyUSA in Washington and Virginia. We also have two new internal surveys released by Republican pollsters for their clients in the New Hampshire and Colorado senate races.
One thing to keep in mind about the state-by-state numbers: If the national McCain bounce persists, we should see the effects trickle down to our statewide trend estimates as new state level polls are released over the next week or so. While this first wave shows some evidence of movement to McCain, it is for the moment at least, fairly subtle. In five of the seven states with new polls, the result is "above trend" for McCain -- slightly better than our trend estimate, but in most cases only slightly.
Virginia is a good example: The two new automated surveys there show McCain with the same two-point advantage (49% to 47%), slightly better than our previous trend estimate, which had Obama ahead by slightly more than a percentage point. The trend estimate is now a dead heat (46.4% to 46.4%) and a look at trend lines in our Virginia chart shows the race in a virtual tie there since June.
However, the new statewide poll have shifted our ratings in three presidential states and one Senate contest:
- The new PPP survey in Michigan shifts that state from lean Obama to toss up, cutting Obama's electoral vote estimate from 260 to 243.
- The new SurveyUSA poll in Washington State and urveyUSA poll in Washington State and a Fox News/Rasmussen poll in Pennsylvania moves those rankings from strong Obama to lean Obama.
- And in the Senate, the new Tarrance Group survey conducted for the National Republican Senatorial Committee moves our rating of the Colorado Senate race from lean Democrat to toss-up.