Under 50 'Outliers'

Gallup's Obama job approval hits 50%; Michael Goldfarb and Michael Crowley note the Pollster.com estimate falling under 50.

Jeff Jones reminds that presidential approval usually falls below 50%.

Gallup sees no clear pattern between presidential approval and the Dow Jones average.

Bill Schneider blames health care for Obama's decline.

Jeremy Rosner warns that polls may not foretell the health care outcome.

Gary Langer reports that network exit poll response rates fell 9 points from 2004 to 2008.

A GOP fundraising "survey" suggests Democrats will deny Republicans health care (via Smith); David Weigel obtains a full copy; A GOP spokesperson calls it "inartful."

Andrew Gelman plots health care survey data by age and shows longstanding skepticism among seniors for expanded government involvement in health care.

Clifford Young shares his view of Obama's health reform missteps.

Jonathan Weisman reports on the poll tested language deployed on both sides of the health care debate (via Appel).

Amy Walter explores the intensity gap.

Tom Jensen ponders why PPP's approval ratings show different trends than Gallup.

Ed Gillespie and Whit Ayres see a GOP opening in the Holder special prosecutor appointment.

Karl Rove plots (PDF) declining Obama support among Hispanics and young voters (via NRO).

Jason Boxt responds to a Bolger/Hobart post.

Bill McInturff says views of Obama's health care plan are comparable to Clinton's in 1994.

John Sides finds little evidence that health care sunk the Democrats in 1994.

The Wall Street Journal says Mark Penn's column did not violate its ethics standards.

Zolitics posts a trailer for its new web series, Moving Numbers (via Soltis).