THE BLOG
02/04/2008 02:59 pm ET | Updated May 25, 2011

Gallup Daily on the 2/5 States

Today's Gallup Daily release is up and they drill down to answer a question I posed earlier in my "Four Cautions" post:

An analysis of the preferences of eligible Democratic primary voters in the 23 states holding Democratic primaries or caucuses Tuesday finds results similar to the overall national results. Forty-nine percent of Democrats and (where eligible to participate) Democratic-leaning independents in Super Tuesday states favor Clinton for the nomination, while 44% choose Obama. This analysis is based on tracking data from Jan. 30-Feb. 3, all collected since John Edwards suspended his campaign.

The chart below shows their overall results.

02-04a_Gallup Daily_ Tracking Election 2008-3.png

As long as we're asking, here are a few more questions I wish our friends at Gallup would answer with the voluminous data set they have collected.

Obama's support has increased to roughly 42% over the last six nights of the Gallup survey from 33% over the six nights before that. Gallup has roughly approximately 2,400 interviews among Democrats and Democratic leaners for each six night period. So as long as we are posing questions, here are a few more I wish Gallup would try to use that data to answer:

  • Where, demographically, have Obama's gains come from? They looked at gender on Friday. What about race? age? education? income? Has Obama gaining more among hard core Democrats or just independents who lean Democratic?
  • Does the Obama-Clinton race look any different over the last six nights if they narrow the sample based on self-reported intent to vote or interest in the campaign? Obviously, that sort of analysis requires questions about vote intent or interest that they may not be asking, but they must be asking some measure of intent on the Gallup Daily.
  • What about the six caucus states? It might require rolling together more than a weeks' worth of data, but how do Obama-Clinton preferences in those states compare to the preferences elsewhere?

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