Gallup's Frank Newport responded
yesterday to my
comments on his original "Gallup Guru" post
on whether "middle class angst" on the economy might present an
opening for Democrats in 2008. Newport originally
argued Gallup
data paints a picture of "rising economic positivity," and found
little evidence that economic worries would translate into a major issue for
Democrats. I suggested that concerns about Iraq
might translate into economic worries, quoting several campaign pollsters who
related voter worries that resources and attention directed at Iraq might lead
to economic difficulties down the road.
The big shortcoming of my argument, admittedly, is that it was based mostly on
the testimony of the campaign consultant pollsters rather than on survey data. I
looked, briefly, but found nothing supportive in the public domain. Newport made this point in
a gentlemanly way:
[I]t isn't clear to me why - if the "Iraq leads to
economic worries" scenario is true - our ongoing economic measures have
not reflected it. Whatever the cause, it would seem that if Americans are truly
worried about economic issues, they would express that worry in both
closed-ended and open-ended questions in our surveys. (If these concerns do begin
to show up in the future in our data, then we'll deal with them then. We just
don't see it at this point).**
That's a fair point. However, I submit this result from the 2006 national
exit poll: More voters told exit pollsters they considered the economy "extremely"
or "very important to their vote (82%) than said the same about the Iraq
war (67%). The economy also beat Iraq (39% to 35%) as an "extremely"
important issue, and voters who expressed extreme concerns about either concern
voted for Democratic congressional candidates by wide margins.
It may also help to consider the campaign themes of some of the Democratic
candidates that helped win control of the Senate, such as the signature ad by Ohio's Sherrod
Brown, or the closing arguments of Claire McCaskill and Jim Webb.
The Brown campaign emphasized trade policy, of course, but all three feature the
common theme broader than the Iraq
war: "Those in power" are not "on our side." They have misplaced
priorities that "failed to protect working people."
I still agree with Newport that the Iraq
war remains the "driving issue" of our politics, and that falling gas
prices have helped economic confidence rebound slightly since the summer. We
disagree, but only mildly, on whether classic economic confidence measures may
be missing the potential for an "economic angst" argument.
**Update: Newport added a footnote
this afternoon:
An update on the on-going discussion
on economic angst. Gallup's
February read on economic conditions in the country have retreated some from
their January high points. (Full analysis to be posted at galluppoll.com on Monday). Americans'
rating of current economic conditions, although still higher than the 2006
average, are down from January.