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By Mark Green
Lowey and Alter debate first GOP debates. Some consensus that Fiorina and Cruz rising, Rubio nominee potential, Bush and Walker meh... as Trump damages GOP as the fringe without the euphemisms. Then: after years of taking incoming as a Kenyan/Hitler, is Obama's tone insulting Republicans on his Iran Deal?
GOP-FOX Debates. Jonathan Alter opens by saying that Fiorina, though a Senate and Hewlett-Packard loser, "sounded ready-for-prime time and a plausible VP nominee by coming across as coherent on issues." Rich Lowry agrees and isn't "surprised since she's been doing this for months in the cattle calls in local states." Also, thinks Rich, while Lindsay Graham's militarism can get some support within the GOP, "he was supposed to be the happy warrior but came across as too mournful."
The Host lauds FOX moderators for their usually sharp questions and follow-ups. But did FOX win in ratings what the GOP lose in appeal because it became another in the competition to out-wing the other as Trump was a misogynistic bully while Rubio and Walker came out for eliminating all abortions and Huckabee the IRS?
Alter dismissed Trump since "nobody with a brain would vote for him" but, when reminded that one-fourth of the GOP said it might, rephrased himself: "Well one fourth of them would believe that the world is flat... But notice that, except for Rand Paul going after him on a possible third party bid, they laid off him by and large. It wouldn't surprise me if he dropped out before Iowa because how will this alpha male handle being a 'LOSER'?"
Lowry thinks that he'll be staying in and could stay on top although "the [poll] internals will show his negatives rising and positives declining" due to his river of outrageous remarks.
Host: Trump's "blood feud" with Megyn Kelly came out only after we did the show. Should he keep it up and since a President Rubio/Walker/Cruz/Huckabee etc would appoint a pro-life justice to reverse Roe v. Wade, what would Hillary Clinton's margin be among women in 2016 since Obama beat Romney by 11 per cent here? 15+ points? Can a Republican overcome that to win? As for now, it appears that Trump will stay and keep violating "political correctness" on the issue of women's choices and health.
While Ted Cruz never answered the question about his strategy to defeat ISIS, his red-meat answer about any American joining ISIS would be signing his own death warrant, worked great in the hall and on TV. Rich thinks that his on-his-feet sharpness plus funding show that he could be among the final two in the later primaries. Yet both agree that Rubio has the looks and chops to be a nominee who could threaten Clinton, although Alter and Lowry disagree about who wins the future-past contest: Alter leans to HRC because of Rubio's old-time Republican religion on economics and Cuba... while Lowry thinks Rubio because of his dynamism and general election agenda (in progress).
As for Jeb Bush, the panel agrees he was Mr. Vanilla without many flubs or hits. Perhaps the best line of the night about the former Florida governor came from Bill Burton, a Democratic operative, on post-debate commentary on FOX. "The good news is that he looks presidential. The bad news is that the president he looks like is George W. Bush."
As for Kasich, it's unclear to our panel whether his balanced-budget conservatism (with the deficit falling 2/3 under BHO) and big-hearted approach to Medicaid expansion and marriage equality will find a home in the GOP. Putting it more directly, it's likely that Cruz's red meat will work better than Kasich's compassionate conservatism in a party based on the far-right and the further right. "This will be a fight for the soul of the Republican party," predicts Alter.
Host: what about the dogs that didn't bark? There was nothing on climate, voting, race, #blacklivesmatter, guns, and next-to-nothing on the economy or Obamacare. Does that show that, with no real alternatives on the ACA and with joblessness falling from 10 percent to 5.3 percent under Obama, those issues are losing their oomph for Republicans?
Alter does Hosting duty in his final comment: "He are the three big takeways: Trump keep his options open for fall of 2016. Carly Fiorina is rising. Rubio has a chance to be the Kennedy/Obama of his party and generation.
Iran Nuclear Deal. Lowry and Alter make the best arguments for their respective positions following Obama's tough speech at American University. Rich emphasizes, as Kissinger has, that the goal is to dismantle Iran's nuclear infrastructure which the Deal doesn't do. Jonathan emphasizes that it's far superior to no deal. "We live in a multi-polar world where the U.S. doesn't get to impose its will. Yes we have military superiority so have options if Iran tries to break out. And while proxy wars and terrorism are of course important, they're dwarfed by the problem of nuclear weapons in the hands of the mullahs."
Host: Obama makes a clinching argument when saying that we cannot look our troops in the eye if we don't try a diplomatic resolution before a military one. Slowing its path to a bomb for 10 years is good... so is playing for time in the plausible hope that, just as a relative moderate like Rouhani is now its President, in 10 years as mullahs die and millennials become leaders the country might focus more on its domestic economy seeing what sanctions have done and might rejoin other nations in fighting rather than fomenting terrorism. I can't prove that but neither can anyone disprove it. What's stupider -- to think that impossible and pursue preemptive war soon... or to give peace a chance?
Biden and Stewart. One's possibly arriving, one's certainly leaving. Lowry thinks that it's now plausible for Biden to run but unlikely for the same logic that led other ranking Democrats to pass on a race i.e., Hillary's strengths in name, money, network. Alter on Stewart: "He's an enormous American historical figure, like Will Rogers in the '20s. It's a big loss to American liberalism because he was able to convince millions of people with his comic voice, lack of meaness, impeccable logic, and lots of video."
Who will now be our Bullshit Detector?
Mark Green is the creator and host of Both Sides Now.
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