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Mark J. Perry and Robert Dell

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Where Krugman Went Right: On Housing Policy

Posted: 06/25/2012 6:32 pm

Originally posted at Carpe Diem, June 23, 2012.

Since 1999, when economist Paul Krugman started writing for the New York Times, he has been drawing the criticism of free market-oriented economists (and recently the president of Estonia) for glaring deficiencies in economic analysis and for writing what amounts to "fiction" (economist and Estonian expert Steve Hanke's word to describe Krugman's trashing of Estonia's recent robust economic growth and counter-Keynesian fiscal reforms).

The Krugman-Estonia kerfuffle raises an interesting question: Has Krugman ever sided with free market economists against government activism in his Times forum?

In Back from Serfdom, my Atlanta colleague Robert Dell quotes a Krugman column from June 2008 to support the case for termination of government affordable housing policies. The normally predictably partisan pundit Krugman appears here to be channeling AEI's Peter Wallison:

"Why should ever-increasing homeownership be a policy goal? How many people should own homes, anyway?

Listening to politicians, you'd think that every family should own its home -- in fact, that you're not a real American unless you're a homeowner... and that is reflected in U.S. policy (MP: Which drove homeownership to unsustainable levels and created the housing bubble, see chart here). Because the I.R.S. lets you deduct mortgage interest from your taxable income but doesn't let you deduct rent, the federal tax system provides an enormous subsidy to owner-occupied housing. On top of that, government-sponsored enterprises -- Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks -- provide cheap financing for home buyers; investors who want to provide rental housing are on their own. In effect, U.S. policy is based on the premise that everyone should be a homeowner.

But homeownership isn't for everyone. In fact, given the way U.S. policy favors owning over renting, you can make a good case that America already has too many homeowners."

We can only hope Krugman will direct a future critical blast toward the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae) for continuing to promote home ownership on its website.

 
 
 
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10:03 AM on 06/26/2012
“a Krugman column from June 2008 to support the case for termination of government affordable housing policies”

The year 2008 was pretty late in the game to notice the housing bubble. Back on Jun 16th 2005, the Economist, a mainstream publication, published an article titled:
“The Global Housing Boom - In come the waves”
http://www.economist.com/node/4079027
which begins:
”The worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history. Prepare for the economic pain when it pops”

“NEVER before have real house prices risen so fast, for so long, in so many countries. Property markets have been frothing from America, Britain and Australia to France, Spain and China. Rising property prices helped to prop up the world economy after the stock market bubble burst in 2000. What if the housing boom now turns to bust?”
03:27 PM on 06/27/2012
I am fully sympathetic to your view here; 2008 was late in the game, but at least Krugman, for once, wrote something that made sense to those of us in the "pro-market" camp. I think there is also a lot to be gained from studying Canadian home prices vs. U.S. home prices over the last 10-15 years. Canada, operating without a big subprime market, has (so far) experienced a sustainable boom in housing prices, with just a mild downturn during the U.S. recession, before resumption to continued price escalation.

RD
02:05 AM on 06/28/2012
The big difference between Canada and other countries where housing bubbles burst was not subprime lending. Compared to the relative size of their economies, Ireland and Spain had even larger housing bubble bursts than America. Neither country had a subprime loan sector and mortgages there are a permanent debt - there is no sending the bank the keys and walking away. Canada is a petrostate: “Canada is the only major oil producer in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to have an increase in oil production in recent years. Production in the other major OECD producers (the United States, United Kingdom, Norway and Mexico) have been declining, as has conventional oil production in Canada. But total crude oil production in Canada was projected to increase by an average of 8.6 percent per year from 2008 to 2011 as a result of new non-conventional oil projects”. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Canada
02:09 AM on 06/28/2012
The Economist ran another article earlier this year: “After years of lecturing America about loose lending, Canada now must confront a bubble of its own”. http://www.economist.com/node/21546057
Of course, they are still talking about a ‘soft landing’ in Canada, much as Fed Chaiman Bernanke was in 2007 when he gave a speech titled "The Subprime Mortgage Market"
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20070517a.htm

quotes:
"Given the fundamental factors in place that should support the demand for housing, we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited."

“We do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system.”

“The vast majority of mortgages, including even subprime mortgages, continue to perform well."

“Past gains in house prices have left most homeowners with significant amounts of home equity, and growth in jobs and incomes should help keep the financial obligations of most households manageable."