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Mark Miller

Mark Miller

Posted: October 22, 2010 01:01 PM

Social Security reform is a touchy subject these days for Thomas Brown and his grandparents.

"If I broach it with them, they are against any sort of legislation that would do anything to change Social Security," says Brown, a 28-year-old financial adviser with Pivot Point Advisors in Houston. "They depend on it, but when I look at my retirement plans, I don't factor it in. The new way of thinking is that Social Security won't be there -- you have to plan for your own retirement."

I write frequently about the future of Social Security, and pessimistic views like Brown's always show up in the comments below my stories. Indeed, Gallup reports that six out of ten pre-retirement Americans don't think Social Security will be able to pay them a benefit when they retire; those age 18-34 are even more pessimistic, with 76 percent saying they'll get nothing from the system.

The doubts aren't difficult to understand. "If you listen to any number of the news outlets, they'll tell you the system is going broke," says Brown. "Every year I get a mailing from Social Security detailing what I can expect in benefits, and they say themselves that it will be bankrupt around 2040 and that they are going to be paying out more than we're paying in. So it's not fear, it's math."

But Social Security isn't going bankrupt -- far from it. The system was intended -- and has always been -- a pay-as-you-go system, with taxes collected from workers used to pay current retirees. But Social Security also is sitting on a $2.5 trillion Social Security Trust Fund (SSTF) that has been stockpiled to fund the looming wave of baby boomer retirements; that fund is projected to be sufficient to pay benefits until about 2037.

Previously published at Reuters.

 
 
 

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Social Security reform is a touchy subject these days for Thomas Brown and his grandparents. "If I broach it with them, they are against any sort of legislation that would do anything to change Socia...
Social Security reform is a touchy subject these days for Thomas Brown and his grandparents. "If I broach it with them, they are against any sort of legislation that would do anything to change Socia...
 
 
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03:12 PM on 10/25/2010
There is a very simple fix for Social Security- Index the payroll taxes at the same rate3 of inflation that you do the cost of Living Increases. Let the Super Wealthy pay on their bonuses, and Income over $106,000.00 a year. The Successful parasite does not kill it's host. The Wall Street parasites are about to kill off the Middle class. Not too smart of them. The middle class is the only ones that pay taxes.
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Skeptical Patriot
10:42 AM on 10/25/2010
How can you state with a straight face that the trust fund is a sound financial footing. As it holds government notes, it requires the government to finance that future obligation and it's interest costs through then current tax revenues. It is a massive ponzi scheme. $2.5T in notes due from the government is part of the basic debt problem that we are foisting on our children's generation. When SS started, it was designed to pay off at a point greater than the average lifespan. Today, with longer lifespans and with benefits not to inflation but to increases in pay, the system is structurally going broke unless there are significant changes in the system. Why do people continue to avoid the truth on this?
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NYCBri
11:12 AM on 10/25/2010
Because what you're saying is false.
08:26 PM on 10/24/2010
It will if it is no allowed to be stolen.
* Social Security benefits are not gobbling up the U.S. economy. Benefits are equal to 4.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, and will rise to just 6.2 percent in 2035, when all baby boomers will be 65 or older, according to last year’s Social Security trustees’ report. After 2035, Social Security expenditures are projected to stay around that percent of GDP through 2085, according to Virginia Reno, vice president for income security at the National Academy of Social Insurance.

* Social Security had a $2.5 trillion surplus in 2009, a number that will hit $3.8 trillion in 2020, according to the Economic Policy Institute. The surplus has been accumulating since implementation of the last Social Security reform measures in 1983.
http://blogs.reuters.com/deep-pocket/2010/07/27/selling-the-big-lie-on-social-security/
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ChasG
Unborn, unchanging, undying Universe
06:13 PM on 10/24/2010
Social Security "Trust Fund" is $2.5 trillion of IOUs from the government to the government. Imagine you're broke, so you issue yourself a promissory note to pay yourself $1 million in the future. Are you now a millionaire? No. Is the $2.5 in a social security trust fund? No. The money has already been spent and replaced with IOUs. Will social security be collecting more than it pays out until the year 2037? No, it's already in deficit now, and getting worse.

It doesn't matter it was "intended" as a pay-as-you-go system, because it's still a multi-generational Ponzi scheme. I want to see social security saved, but pretending it doesn't need to be saved will only postpone the inevitable, and make the ultimate collapse worse.

Failures of government "pay-as-you-go" systems are not unprecedented. West Virginia's state-run workers' compensation plan went broke, had to be privatized, and the citizens of the state had to pick up the bill for the workers' collecting disability payments and medical benefits. Washington State's state-run workers compensation system is staring at a $10 billion insolvency according to publicly released financial statements using generally accepted accounting principles, but they ignore the problem because they have $20 billion of investments (and $30 billion of debts).

This fraud on future generations must be fixed before it's too late.
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NYCBri
11:15 AM on 10/25/2010
All trust fund bonds are IOU's. But guess what?! ALL treasury Bonds are IOU's. In fact, ALL DOLLARS are IOU's. To state that there is no trust fund is to state there is no Bond market in this country. What you're saying is absurd.
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Skeptical Patriot
11:38 AM on 10/25/2010
In the event of normalizing government debt costs to the historic cost of capital levels and applying to the "trust fund". Explain the impact on future inflation or ability to adding debt to the system? Further more, when the number of works supporting the system shrinks to 2:1 give me your analysis of the future state of social security. This idea that the increasing notional debt through bond offerings is the same thing as good fiscal policy absurd.
11:54 AM on 10/24/2010
Thomas Brown is partly right. He's wrong in that the Social Security system will still exist when he reaches retirement age, however he's right that the SS system won't benefit him. I'm sure he's expecting the usual way this country deals with budget issues in the continual punishment of success and rewarding of failure. For, success doesn't gain votes from the electorate like failure does. And it will make the mooching class happy to know that Brown should expect the cap to be removed on his annual earnings in determining the amount of SS taxes he will be forced to pay. And lucky ole Brown can expect his lifetime business success to reward him with means testing on whether he should receive any SS benefits at all. No use crying about it as this is the price he has to pay, in addition to ever increasing income taxes, to be a citizen of this ever weakening country. However, one retirement strategy he might be already be planning on is to give up his citizenship and live out his retirement in a carribean paradise and forego any future income tax burden.
05:05 PM on 10/23/2010
One thing really wrong with counting on the stock market for retirement is that the market is not reliable. It was a big coincidence that just about the time the boomers are starting to retire that the market collapsed.

Also other countries are not business minded. They will not put profit above all else like they do here. Many are used to socialism and will not like capitalism.

And the market can't continue going up each year. At some point it will have went up as much as it can. And the dividends will be divided by so many retirees that it won't be enough.

Social Security is a good program. There is no reason for Social Security to go broke as long as the government keeps its bargain to pay back our Social Security treasury bonds.

They have set Social Security up to fail, but we can do our best to succeed in keeping it strong for the next generations.

The only way it won't be there for the younger generations will be if they don't insist on having it. They want the younger generations to think it won't be there for them.
nothingchanges
too soon old, too late smart
10:00 AM on 10/23/2010
And if Social Security is privatized in the next Congress?

What then?
08:11 AM on 10/24/2010
Most of the Democrats won't privatize Social Security.
07:50 PM on 10/24/2010
Define privatized. If the money is moved into personal accounts that are invested as a pool into US Treasury bonds then nothing changes except for the fact that the government cannot change the rules and give those payments to someone else. If they actually hand out the money to invest in something other than US Treasury bonds, then you have an underfunded government and a temporarily higher market.
05:36 AM on 10/23/2010
Social Security will not be there for Mr. Brown only if he, and his cohorts, let that happen.
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frank day
Republican = FAIL
08:12 PM on 10/22/2010
We need to consistently proclaim the truth about Social Security to anyone who will listen.

The Cons and their Wall Street friends are salivating over the idea of getting access to that 2+ trillion dollars.
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Majestry
03:26 PM on 10/22/2010
I'll never see SS. In fact, I'd be shocked if this country even exists by the time I'm at a retirement age. If the Republicans take control this year, I'd say this country has another decade MAX before it devolves into full-scale civil war. If the democrats remain in control, if they address many of the issues that threaten this country, and if they make the hard decisions to set us on the right path followed by more intelligent and patriotic people... we might have a shot.
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OSCPJ
Want it? Work 4 it. No 1 has ever drown in sweat.
11:47 AM on 10/23/2010
I agree with you. But we differ on the blame. Listen, its not Republicans or Democrats. I've stopped trying to assess blame. The end game is the same either way.

Problem is a Currency/Bond/Derivitives problem no one wants to address. The Democrats remaining in control (I don't believe they will retain both houses) won't fix it. Nothing has been done in two years to fix the problems. Everything this admin and the previous admin has done have failed to address any of the core issues of Housing, Trade Surplus, Spending. While the Obama admin has tried to make people feel good, he has actually made it worse.

Inflation/Deflation debate is silly too. Hyperinflation is the end result due to lack of faith in the USD. SS, FERS, FED, China, Japan in that order are the largest holders of UST Bonds. See a problem when the US has to buy its own bonds?
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01:31 PM on 10/22/2010
Another myth perpetuated by the conservative faction wanting to chip away at the very foundation for the average American, the very fabric that holds many people together in their old age, if they are disabled and never to work again, and for minor children. Social Security is not broken.

There are many ways to buoy it up. Ex-president Bush's lament about not privatizing S.S. on his watch is the nations win. If, after going through one of the worst financial debacles since the Great Depression, there are people such as this guy, who still are pushing for putting this one thing working people can count on at risk, it is unbelievable, and, reprehensible. We know how vulnerable our 401Ks were. No thanks. S.S. is something everyone must know will always be there.

One way to bolster its viability is to continue the payroll deduction after the $106,000 cut off. It doesn't make sense to me that someone earning $60,000 a year never stops paying, yet, those making more than the $106,000 have a cut-off.

What is vulnerable and needs fixing is Medicare. This is a policy, along with S.S. that this country can, and should be proud of. But, it is Medicare that is running out of money and must be addressed. That is not to say abandon it, or eliminate it, as people tend to want to do, but fix it. We have a tendency in this country, if something is in trouble, throw it out. Wrong.
02:09 PM on 10/22/2010
Easiest way to fix Medicare is make it available to all Americans.
When Medicare was first proposed and then enacted, the for profit insurance companies had a hissie fit and only relented when Medicare was only available to the old and infirm, i.e. the highest risk customers the DIDN'T WANT!
Opening up Medicare to everyone opens the program to the LOW RISK customers the for profit insurance corporations want. Allowing the young to participate and add their 113 bucks a month to the fund - rather than wasting hundreds on the aforementioned for profit corporations - makes all the sense in the world!
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11:16 PM on 10/22/2010
You are so right, BusGreg! Someday, down the line, after the "poisonous dust," settles, and we can talk about real health insurance reform in an adult and civilized fashion, that would be a great solution to our problems.
08:04 PM on 10/24/2010
And we would end up with the system that exists in every other modern nation. The rich would buy suplimental insurance and get very good, quick attention and the rest get very average attention with long wait times. The worst part is that in all those countries you can not sue if the doctor makes a mistake. Instead you get a little pension boost for being "harmed".
05:12 PM on 10/23/2010
The only reason Medicare would run out of money after all the increased income it receives is because the government is using it to subsidize Medicap or Advantage and Prescription plans. The insurance company has found a way to suck even more money from Social Security and Medicare.

Why should the insurance companies profit off the insurance for those over 65? It should be set up like Medicare is with Medicare not subsidizing the insurance companies. A Medicare prescription drug plan and a Medicare Medicap plan would do as much without bankrupting the health care of the elderly.