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Mark Nickolas

Mark Nickolas

Posted: September 16, 2008 02:35 PM

Bye Bye McCain Bounce -- National Tracking Polls Show Race Shifting Back To Obama Over Past Four Days (UPDATED)


The anxiety and bed-wetting that many Democrats have been experiencing about the state of the presidential race over the past few weeks should be subsiding as the Palin effect is wearing off and we're seeing clear signs that the McCain bounce is over and the pendulum is swinging back to Obama. Effectively, the race has reverted to where it stood before the political conventions.

Today's four daily tracking polls show a clear trend towards Obama over the past four days. Since state polls tend to be lagging indications -- and they're much more dated -- we should see those numbers settling back in the next week.

Democrats may now exhale. Here's the data for the past four days of tracks:

(Update (9/17 -- 1:10 pm ET): Just added the latest day of tracks (Sep 17) and the trend towards Obama continues as Gallup now shows Obama back in the lead again):

Date Rasmussen Gallup Research2000
Diageo
AVERAGE
Sep 17 McCain +1 (48-47) Obama +2 (47-45) Obama +4
(48-44)
Obama +3
(45-42)
Obama +2
(46.75-44.75)
Sep 16 McCain +1 (48-47) McCain +1 (47-46) Obama +4
(48-44)
Obama +4
(46-42)
Obama +1.5
(46.75-45.25)
Sep 15 McCain +2 (49-47)
McCain +2 (47-45) Obama +3
(48-45)
Obama +1
(44-43)
Tied
(46-46)
Sep 14 McCain +3 (50-47) McCain +2 (47-45) Obama +2
(47-45)
Obama +2
(45-43)
McCain +0.25
(46.25-46)
Sep 13 McCain +3 (49-46) McCain +2 (47-45) Tied
(47-47)
McCain +1
(45-44)
McCain +1.5
(47-45.5)

Mark Nickolas is the Managing Editor of Political Base, and this story was from his original post, "Bye Bye Bounce"

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