Bye Bye McCain Bounce -- National Tracking Polls Show Race Shifting Back To Obama Over Past Four Days (UPDATED)

The anxiety and bed-wetting that many Democrats have been experiencing about the state of the presidential race over the past few weeks should be subsiding as the Palin effect is wearing off and we're seeing clear signs that the McCain bounce is over and the pendulum is swinging back to Obama. Effectively, the race has reverted to where it stood before the political conventions.

Today's four daily tracking polls show a clear trend towards Obama over the past four days. Since state polls tend to be lagging indications -- and they're much more dated -- we should see those numbers settling back in the next week.

Democrats may now exhale. Here's the data for the past four days of tracks:

(Update (9/17 -- 1:10 pm ET): Just added the latest day of tracks (Sep 17) and the trend towards Obama continues as Gallup now shows Obama back in the lead again):

Date	Rasmussen	Gallup	Research2000	Diageo	AVERAGE
Sep 17	McCain +1 (48-47)	Obama +2 (47-45)	Obama +4 (48-44)	Obama +3 (45-42)	Obama +2 (46.75-44.75)
Sep 16	McCain +1 (48-47)	McCain +1 (47-46)	Obama +4 (48-44)	Obama +4 (46-42)	Obama +1.5 (46.75-45.25)
Sep 15	McCain +2 (49-47)	McCain +2 (47-45)	Obama +3 (48-45)	Obama +1 (44-43)	Tied (46-46)
Sep 14	McCain +3 (50-47)	McCain +2 (47-45)	Obama +2 (47-45)	Obama +2 (45-43)	McCain +0.25 (46.25-46)
Sep 13	McCain +3 (49-46)	McCain +2 (47-45)	Tied (47-47)	McCain +1 (45-44)	McCain +1.5 (47-45.5)

Mark Nickolas is the Managing Editor of Political Base, and this story was from his original post, "Bye Bye Bounce"

Follow Mark Nickolas on Twitter: www.twitter.com/mnickolas

Comments

[madprophet]

Can someone explain to me how there is even any modicum of doubt in this "presidential race". As a Canadian, I feel comfortable to state that the rest of the planet has no idea what goes on in the heads of the average american. How can anyone sane even consider voting for a republican, after what your current morons have done to the planet, economically and military-wise.

And before anybody states it is none of my business what the U.S. does in its electoral process, I have seen half of life savings wiped out in the past 4 months due to the U.S. meltdown. And I don't own U.S. stock in any significance. And you people are that close to putting another religious nut in the V.P. chair, and she will be one heart attack, one more incidence of skin cancer, from your nuclear arsenal.

So yeah, who americans elect is the planets' business, and if 45-50% of your populace believes that the neocon way is the best way, the world is better off without the U.S.

[AbigailPosts]

Don't worry about the "average" Americans. They don't exist. What you want to worry about is the modal American.

[teacheng]

Could be - but these nuts are liable to take the rest of the world with them.

Tell any American you know. Get the facts to them. Help your brothers and sisters to the south.

[steve23]

It's convenient that the Dem nominee can use this week's financial crisis as an attack against his opponent. Why, that's all he's got folks. This is the last thing America wants to do in a time of great challenge - and that's go with a novice with 18 months experience. DO WE REALLY WANT to put our trust in somebody that's done nothing, never made a Major decision, votes "present" 95% of the time ? Think hard now, THIS IS NO TIME FOR AN EXPERIMENT AMERICA. Let's not put our fate in the hands of a beginner, no matter how nice he speaks. Many Americans do not make $30,000 a year - yet he took that amount last night in LA - from each ticket holder. WAKE UP NOW

[doctorwang]

Sure. Much better to vote for the guy that helped to create the financial crisis. Whose years of "experience" have let to the sorry state of our nation.

This is a time for change. McCain is more of the same. We can't afford 4 more years of the same.

[char aud]

Steve23 - Most of the attendees at that "do" were celebrities, mostly actors, directors and the like - they can afford it, considering how much they make on each movie - get a life man. FYI most GOP americans make much much more than the cost of each ticket, also an ordinary accounts person, in my office which happens to be non-profit, makes around $30K a year and I am talking about the state of Louisiana. So you WAKE UP and get your facts right NOW!!

[chiwillie]

Your condescension doesn't obscure the intellectual bankruptcy of your arguments. The current financial crisis - festering while all three branches of government were under republican control - is one of hundreds of reasons why McCain is unfit for command. He has sold his very soul to lobbyists and has reversed himself on everything he claimed to hold dear. He has lied throughout the campaign and has proven to be tragically out of touch on our most important issues. His choice for Vice President (only a fool thinks that Palin is more qualified than Romney, Huckabee, Lieberman, Pawlenty or another 50 republicans) is a callous, calculated gambit to win the election, not to effectively govern the country. Country first my lovely broad a$$.

Your point about fundraising exposes both your tragic obtuseness and hypocrisy. Given the $2500 limit on contributions to a presidential campaign, the event you mention was obviously for the DNC. Of course both McCain and the RNC have been holding big ticket fundraisers. You obviously think money from a defense contractor who gouges the American taxpayer on a $1 billion aviation fuel contract is somehow not as bad as money from hollywood types whose only sin is that they disagree with you.

You are the one in need of an alarm clock.

[611Juniper]

My little consulting practice went under 18 months ago, so I appreciate your circumstances. I just wanted to log on to let you know that I will keep you and your staff in my prayers in hopes that all of us will soon be restored to fiscal/professional stability.

[Rossan]

Obama/ Biden 08... Dont snooze if you o we'll loose! Let's get behing Obama campaign together we can pull ourselves up & we will win. We must vote & encourage others to go out on election day & vote. Things will get better for us all, let's stay encouraged and do all we can to get Obama/Biden ticket to Presidential victory!

[robynuva]

This month I am closing my small recruiting business because the unemployment rates and outsourcing coupled with rising costs make it impossible to operate. I have never invested in predatory loans, nor subsidized the sharks that fed off of people’s desire to own a house. I have not paid myself a salary that would disgust Gordon Gekko. All I have done for the last 8 years is help folks find jobs with decent wages and benefits. I don’t think selling my office furniture is going to allow me much of a "golden parachute.­’
In the last eight years we have gotten over 600 people jobs. That is about 600 more jobs than the Bush administration has created. In fact, this year alone I am about 438,000 jobs ahead of Bush. Of course now I have to subtract the 3 people I am laying off.
Therefore I will be packing up my office supplies and donating them to the local Obama headquarters. Even during these difficult times, the irony of that makes me smile.

And to John McCain: I can assure you the fundamentals of my economy are not strong.

[one4obama]

Bless your heart. My sister in Texas also owns a small recruiting business and a year ago she had to downsize and move her office from a leased facility into her house and lay off her 2 employees. So now she works out of her house with no other employees. She manages, but just barely.

I have no idea how she is voting. My family has always been Democrats and most of them have never ever voted outside party line.

Myself? Whoever and whatever policies/issues are what is best for the nation (not always the best for me personally) is how I vote. I don't give a rats behind which party the credit goes to or which party is the candidate. I have always voted for this nation's welfare.

This year - why it only makes sense that it would be Obama.

[solutionrong]

Such an interesting and exciting thing to see.

[RRundbaken]

We are dealing with a person who has wanted this office, NEEDS this office, to prove he has surpassed his father and grandfather. Not unlike the current office holder and we know how that turned out.

Now he picks a candidate whose sole purpose is to get him over the hump. Not because she can be president, it is obvious she can't, but she might get him some votes. That's not "country first" that's McCain first.

What is far more insidious is the fact that she now appears to be a Manchurian candidate. The neocons scoped her out a year ago and saw a tabula rasa. This is frighteningly evident in her quoting Westbrook Pegler in her speech. Pegler was a fascist, raging anti-semite and a McCarthyist. Why are news agencies and reporters not more concerned with this? She either knew who she was quoting, something I doubt, or she just read back what was put in front of her by the puppet masters who are engaged in a culture war.

[FaceYourFears]

Make that "two" Manchurian candidates!

[be4obamain09]

That is what I have been saying all the time, JMC wants to make good for himself to say look everybody I'm not a bum and a loser at the bottom of my Navy class. I became president yeaa.

Mccain is so obvious that you can see it in everything he does. He needs to win for his family record and to make up for his loser life. JMC not country first Ambition First

BE4BOin09

[OB08]

Please, please let's go out there and work harder, register votes, make phone calls, spread the word to elect President Obama.

[nowalnuts]

I have faith in America but that's our problem. We never really expect to lose. I'm actually going out and working for Obama this year and every time a McCain comment sends me over the edge I buy an Obama shirt or donate money to him. I have lots and lots of Obama shirts by now!!! I'm not going to wait until I vote this year to make a difference because it hasn't worked in the past.

[Bluejay00234]

Lets go Dems....le­ts go!

[joshuahmcdonald]

Take Heart!

Do you see all of the anger in here? The hate? The lies? The doublethink? They claim that we are desperate. And they are right. Desperate for CHANGE!

The opposition has been fed a steady diet of fear for 8 long years...th­ey will fight back the only way they know how. They will call you a liar. They will say that you are desperate. DO NOT LISTEN!

They will use the Rovian tactics of distortion and manipulation and attacking strength from weakness. DO NOT LISTEN!

Remember that they are doublethinkers (I implore you to re-read 1984, at least Chapter IX, so that you can truly understand what they are doing). DO NOT LISTEN!

When they say you are a liar it is because they are lying. When they claim that you are desperate it is because they are desperate. When they assert that Obama CAN'T win it is because they know that he WILL.

The increase in their numbers and volume is a GOOD thing. Their anger is illustrative of their fear. They have no issues to discuss. So, instead, they rant and rave in a constant diatribe of fear and hate.

NOW is the time to display the true courage of our convictions. NOW is the time to show those who mindlessly chant of honor and freedom and patriotism what these words really mean. NOW is the time to stand strong...t­o be the better man. NOW is the time to take our country back!

[carmen63]

I've noticed that the Rasmussen Reports way of questioning is very misleading so I don't trust them!

[FaceYourFears]

EXACTLY!

[Clayton139]

(WHY) haven’t BOTH Bill and Hillary Clinton and James Carville) been out there helping Barack Obama, and Joe Biden, and the Democratic Party to defend (Bill Clintons legacy) and for them to help get Democratic Party elected again! If Barack Obama and Bill and Hillary Clinton would use the (Clinton administration legacy) for talking points against the GOP lies would totally help our chances of winning the White House back again. What are the Clintons/Carville waiting on...?

US Democrats need and want your help...!

[whit4brains]

Both HRC and Bi den are out there. HRC was in FL last week but I never heard anything about it on the MSM.

[one4obama]

Are you hiding under a rock? You haven't heard Biden over the last 3 weeks while out there stumping for Obama?

Then you have really missed something. He is awesome. All his speeches are on YouTube.

As for Hillary, I haven't seen much of her or Bill, just what little comes out here on HuffPo.

[Beka13]

Sarah Palin = Snakes on a Plane

Overhyped.

[margardner]

The country is finally seeing what a disappointment the McCain/Palin ticket really is. McCain has sold his soul to win this election. McCain/Palin offer absolutely nothing except lies and drama, and we don't need anymore drama in the White House. We need an administration who truly does honor and respect the constitution and respects it's people!

Obama/Biden 08'