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Mark Penn

Mark Penn

Posted: October 18, 2010 01:29 PM

Who Will Win the Midterms?

What's Your Reaction:

As we head into the midterms it is increasingly clear that there will be no winners on election night given the massive discontent of the electorate almost across the board. Even if the Republicans have a good night, it will not be an endorsement of the Tea Party any more than 2008 was an endorsement of the progressive left. It will be another cycle in the game of ping pong being played out by an increasingly non-partisan, centrist electorate given too little choice -- or, worse yet, given false choices.

The problem is that the successful strategies of the two wings of the parties, particularly as the parties have been shrinking, have driven both parties closer to the extremes. Think about the math of it -- if the Republican Party is, say, 26% of the country and the most conservative elements of the party are 14%, then 14% can end up governing not just a minority party but the entire country.

At the root of the discontent is the desire to have practical, not ideological, solutions to intractable problems. In most cases, the voters oppose single-sided solutions that entirely reject one party's ideas, and favor instead approaches that combine the best of each platform. No, not soft, watered down approaches, but strong, comprehensive solutions such as we've seen in the past with the balanced budget accord and Welfare reform.

When it comes to the economy, the voters want a return to solid economic growth. If China can grow why can't the United States? So they favored stimulus when we needed it but oppose tax increases, and want to see more markets open to American goods, more investment in innovation. A comprehensive economic strategy in the 21st century has to have more than just tax and spend at its core -- it needs the kinds of investments and opening of markets that promote winning a fair share of the expanding global economic pie.

Of course they believe all Americans should have access to quality affordable healthcare. But voters also think that the government has to be kept out of healthcare decisions and that costs have to be controlled, starting with malpractice.

And as polls show they favor a toughening of the immigration laws, but also believe that we need a fair resolution of the problems of the millions of people already here.

Waiting for 'Superman' is touching a nerve when it comes to educational reform. The electorate believes teachers should be paid well -- but also they think they should be judged in the workplace just like everyone else is -- and want to see us as a country be more open to more radical educational reform.

They want smaller government, but they also want an activist government that is looking out for them and their children when they get in a car, use a bank or eat a hamburger. They want small business (and business in general) to flourish, but not without the regulations and appropriate mandates (like the epa mileage standards) that keep them safe and move the country in the right direction.

And working to protect our environment is not an on/off switch. Voters reject radical solutions that would restrict economic growth and add huge new taxes but they favor tough environmental regulations, incentives to find new forms of energy, and a national commitment to new green industries.

In fact, spinning out the list of things that the voters want that combine the best of what Democrats and Republicans offer is easy - and around election time this list seems to appear on virtually every presidential candidate's website.

But once in office it seems to disappear. The 1994 to 2000 period is the last period of bipartisan action and high voter satisfaction with the system, coming off a low point in the 1994 midterms. It wasn't perfect, but over 20 million jobs were created while tough problems like the budget deficit and welfare were tackled head on.

The Republicans are set to crow on election day -- but the results will really be more of a reflection of dissatisfaction with the administration, and the perception that it has failed to govern as promised, than an endorsement of all their policies. As with 2008, it will be a call for greater balance and the post-election period will afford our country's leaders a time to assess what this electorate is seeking from government. If, after the returns are in, the administration and the Republicans recognize these results as a warning shot to both parties and roll up their sleeves to produce the same kinds of action we saw after 1994, then there will be a winner -- the voters.

 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Roy Merritt old car guy
Loves Nostalgia Dragsters
12:50 PM on 10/19/2010
Our greatest problem is that Carl Rove and the India, Chinese backed Chamber of Commerce have been unloading a pile of horse manure lies on every Democrat running that we can't get any truth out there. THe Republicans have their hands so far in the corporations pockets that they should be registered sex offenders. This election is all about fear of the Boogie man, Nancy Polesi, communist Muslim Obama, truth is lost and the American people have a short memory. Americans need to study some recent history and they would see that in their own best interest they had better vote Democrat or their children will never have it as good as I did or any generation since the Great Depression. I don't care if President Obama and Nancy didn't get everything done, they are the only choice the working person has to fight for us against the total Corporate take over America.
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Ragnar Danneskjold
Defender of Liberty
11:58 AM on 10/19/2010
-- but the results will really be more of a reflection of dissatisfaction with the administration, and the perception that it has failed to govern as promised, than an endorsement of all their policies"

The "perception" that it has failed to govern as promised? No, sir, the reality. There was no transparency in the HC Debate, there were backroom deals and smoke filled rooms. The people were not allowed to see the negotiations on C-Span, as promised, just a dog and pony show for a couple hours. The people did not get the bi-partisanship Obama promised, he didn;t even let one Republican Amendment into the Bill. The people did not get the ceiling of 8% Unemployment that Obama promised iwth his Stimulus. The people did not get shutting down of Gitmo (though I disagreed at the time with this) that Obama promised. These are not "perceptions" of failed promises, they are realities.
11:51 AM on 10/19/2010
Look, Penn, if you examine the polls you find that Americans overwhelmingly favor progressive policies -- at least until Luntz and the repugs take out a hit on them with lies, half truths and innuendos. Then of course, someone like you who wants to split the difference with the liars, moves the whole country to the right.

Single payer had 60% support; public option 70%;
Americans favored aggressive regulation of tax cuts;
they favored repeal of the tax cuts for the richest Americans;
they favored action on climate change;
they favor subsidies for renewable energy and energy efficiency;
they favor taxing hedge funds, derivatives and capital gains;
they oppose changes to social security, medicare and medicaid;

On and on it goes.

So why don't they think of themselves as progressive?

Simple. You can't win a horse race without a horse.
People like you (and Axelrod and Emanuel) have been running from progressivism for so long, it has no identity.
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Dustee
FOX 'Jerry Springer' NEWS
08:55 AM on 10/19/2010
I'd thought Mr. Penn would be better suited for the d rudge report.
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08:28 AM on 10/19/2010
If Democrats lose than lets hope they will know to use the filibuster better than they know how to use a filibuster proof majority.???
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
satanlite
Liberal blogger
09:15 AM on 10/19/2010
LOL!!! Remember, they are the ones who actually wanted to REMOVE the power to filibuster at one point. Democrats won't or can't fight Republicans even if they had golden bullets in golden guns.
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SolarPowerGuy
Ph.D., Immunology; Solar power @ home; Green Party
07:47 AM on 10/19/2010
"The problem is that the successful strategies of the two wings of the parties, particularly as the parties have been shrinking, have driven both parties closer to the extremes."

How can anyone say this with a straight face? Both parties have been trending together towards ONE political extreme -- the RIGHT-WING extreme -- for decades now.

Look at President Nixon. That REPUBLICAN President increased Social Security and Medicare benefits, boosted unemployment benefits, supported a government jobs program, and briefly imposed wage and price controls on the entire American economy.

Today's Democrats would proudly and publicly declare all of that to be FAR too radical. They say the same thing about the comparatively modest measures proposed by modern American progressives. Democrats are RIGHT-WING LITE.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
satanlite
Liberal blogger
09:15 AM on 10/19/2010
fvd
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07:01 AM on 10/19/2010
So what you're saying is that Americans really don't know what they want so they'll elect ultra-right-wing tea party extremists to hammer the last nail into the coffin that is America and to put an end to democracy once and for all.

Great.
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06:45 AM on 10/19/2010
Who will win the midterms?

Not the American public, that is for sure!
05:53 AM on 10/19/2010
Most people think corporations have too much power and don't have the people's interest at heart.

Most people think that the federal govt should do more to ensure product safety and protect the environment

Most people think that the federal govt has too much control over the economy,

Most people think that more federal power should be transferred to state and local govt

Most people think their state and local governments are incompetent.

Most people think that citizens rather than government should play a bigger role in solving our problems.

Most people distrust their neighbors to help them out when they need them.

Most people turn to government to solve problems when they arise.

Most people make political decisions based on conflicting logic, misinformation, and a superficial grasp of reality.

Elections have nothing to do with preferences for a coherent political ideology and everything to do with the manipulation of a confused public.
05:40 AM on 10/19/2010
(2of2)

It's convenient and facile to say, "oh, it's both sides". But it's lazy at best, deliberately misleading at worst. It's like a news program with a scientist on explaining why the sky is blue, and someone else saying, no it's red... and the moderator concluding, "well, there's a difference of opinion on this issue. We'll be back after this." All statements are not created equal: there is such a thing as verifiable truth. Smoking does cause cancer, no matter what teams of pseudo scientists said for years. CO2 is changing the climate. Offshore oil drilling is horribly risky (someone want to debate me on that?). And, here, both sides have not equally been pursuing bipartisanship -- which by it's very definition requires two participating, engaged, compromising players.
05:39 AM on 10/19/2010
Like so much of what now passes for "reasoned, reasonable, centrist a-partisan" discourse, this is intellectually dishonest Show me the Obama administration's radical left policy implementation. Healthcare reform that includes coverage for all and diminishes insurance company hegemony in favor of improving coverage? Nope - was modified and weakened and moved toward (if not past) center to accommodate those on the right. Climate change legislation? Didn't happen at all. Stimulus? Not nearly enough for any progressive's taste (and as it turns out, also not enough to achieve desired results. Financial Reform? Same. Don't Ask, Dont Tell? Don't ask. (seriously, right now, just don't ask.) To its detriment - both politically and policy-wise -- this White House has sought bipartisanship, tried to bridge the gap, but with a "loyal opposition" whose negotiation stance was an unequivocal (and politically-useful) no. Just no. Can anyone show any evidence that the Republican party leadership was ever actively seeking bipartisan solutions with this White House?

The writer's correct, certainly, that there are activist wings of both parties pulling them in opposite directions. The difference is that the activist wing on the right is running their show, not just policy-wise, but politically. Whereas on the left, there's more of a real-politik acceptance that politics is the art of compromise, and the lesser-of-two-evils is still an improvement over the alternative. (1of2)
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
skatscan
07:27 AM on 10/19/2010
How many times does the "ask" part of "Don't ask, Don't tell" get violated anyway?
05:24 AM on 10/19/2010
Bah, I still blame GWB Cheney et. Al. For this ENTIRE mess. No one has to spoon feed me the 'facts'. I'm a big boy and I can read and think for myself. ( are u listening 24/7 Fox Neuz junkies?)..
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Ragnar Danneskjold
Defender of Liberty
12:00 PM on 10/19/2010
Blame Bush!!!!! wow, Ingenius. 2008 is over, pal.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
CindiT
04:08 PM on 10/19/2010
Sadly, not the damage and repercussions, however.

Btw, how long did your side blame Bill Clinton for just about everything? For the entire first term of the shrub's tenure and then halfway through the 2nd is what I remember.
HUFFPOST PUNDIT
1murillo
Can't be neutral on a moving train - Zinn
05:14 AM on 10/19/2010
By adding an overuse of pronouns to his usual ramblings Penn makes his arguments as difficult to disprove as he makes his various points vague.
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04:59 AM on 10/19/2010
God, not this junk again. Maybe Dems should stop walking on their tip-toes around reality. Buy a clue from FDR. Far too often our big tent wants pay some political correct game. Don't step on "business". Don't insult the aristocracy.

-snip-

“This is a hard decision for me personally because, frankly, I don’t like him. I feel like he is an elitist. I feel like he has not given me reason to trust him.” –Lady Lynn Forester de Rothschild

-snip-

http://millercenter.org/scripps/archive/speeches/detail/3305

There is a mysterious cycle in human events. To some generations much is given. Of other generations much is expected. This generation of Americans has a rendezvous with destiny.

In this world of ours in other lands, there are some people, who, in times past, have lived and fought for freedom, and seem to have grown too weary to carry on the fight. They have sold their heritage of freedom for the illusion of a living. They have yielded their democracy.

I believe in my heart that only our success can stir their ancient hope. They begin to know that here in America we are waging a great and successful war. It is not alone a war against want and destitution and economic demoralization. It is more than that; it is a war for the survival of democracy. We are fighting to save a great and precious form of government for ourselves and for the world.

-snip-
04:09 AM on 10/19/2010
There are still a couple of weeks. I am not giving up yet. Nor should anyone else. Voting is the key.