What Romney's Done Wrong (and How He Can Fix It)

The Romney campaign has made three fundamental missteps that it must overcome if Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is to prevail over President Obama this November. For the first time since I declared the U.S. presidential race a Jump Ball four months ago, we are seeing a candidate gaining a slight edge in the polls.

Obama's current lead is by no means definitive. Even though the campaign is fewer than seven weeks away, in political terms, this is a couple of lifetimes. Time remains to correct course, but the Romney campaign must return to a path that fills its sails for the final leg of the race in order to cross the finish line first.

Here are Romney's three missteps:

1. Taking a Small-Field Focus to a Big Field Contest. There is a difference between the U.S. presidential race and nearly any other political contest. Even though races for governor occupy the front pages of local papers for an extended duration, national media does not constantly reinforce them. And even though presidential primary contest dominate headlines in both local and national press, they do so for only a transient time. Presidential races are a prolonged state-national-international echo chamber unlike anything Romney has experienced.

Successful campaign approaches to small-field (congressional and statewide contests) and big-field (presidential) contests are fundamentally different. The Romney campaign has been following the classic small-field game: Raise lots of money and save it to spend at the end of the campaign. This fails in a big field contest because with more attention, there is more time spent on what they call in literature or films "character development." Whether candidates would be fun to have a beer with is just as important as to where they stand on issues in presidential campaigns.

As I discussed in Job 1 for Romney: Tell Why He Cares, it was a mistake for Romney to wait until the convention to tell his life story in a way that connects to the everyday lives of average Americans. It was an unthinkable mistake for the Romney campaign to yield the airwaves to the Obama campaign during the conventions. Romney told his story in a compelling way at the convention, but it was not reinforced on the airwaves as the Obama campaign significantly outspent Romney on advertising during this period.

By not cementing his life story in the mind of voters, Romney left a vacancy that the Obama campaign is diligently working to fill by characterizing Romney as uncaring. One of my supporters told me, "If you get a reputation as an early riser, you can sleep to noon every day." Giving the Obama campaign the opportunity to define Romney's reputation as uncaring leaves him especially vulnerable to missteps -- including his recent comments about the 47 percent. If Republican senatorial candidates in key swing states feel compelled to start distancing themselves from Romney, the negative consequences of the early misstep will be multiplied.

2. Lack of Message Discipline. As I have also maintained for some time, Romney's path to victory demands message discipline. Despite the fact that conservatives want him to talk about a range of issues, the path to victory requires a narrow focus on issues where Romney has a credible edge -- most importantly jobs and the economy. Yet Romney has repeatedly gotten into trouble due to a lack of message discipline (consider his Libya and his 47 percent comments). Not only did each of these comments cause voters to question Romney's judgment, they also have distracted from Romney's core message: Essentially, that you and your kids are more likely to find rewarding work with Romney as your president.

3. Small Circle Instead of a Big Circle of Trust. Running for U.S. president requires the need to make sound judgment on issues with a range and complexity unmatched by any other job. This requires candidates to have a wide array of diverse experts to bring into a circle of trust. While the Republican National Convention did a good job of bringing forth people who related Romney's caring side in a compelling way, it also highlighted the fact that for much of his life, Romney has lived within a small circle of trusted colleagues -- fellow members of his LDS Church, partners at Bain Capital, and cabinet members while he was governor of Massachusetts.

Romney's early attack on Obama's handling of the Libyan Embassy shooting reflected campaign reflexes, not seasoned foreign policy instincts. Balancing the tension between the simultaneous conflicting needs for wide input and quick decisions is a challenge for every presidential candidate. It is one that Romney must quickly address as we head into debate season.

The good news for Romney is that his current campaign woes are largely from self-inflicted wounds. It remains in his hands to chart a path to victory.

Mark R. Kennedy leads George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management and is Chairman of the Economic Club of Minnesota. He previously served three terms in the U.S. House of Representatives and was Senior Vice President and Treasurer of Federated Department Stores (now Macy's).

 

Follow Mark R. Kennedy on Twitter: www.twitter.com/MNMarkKennedy

Comments

[franchise2m]

11:08 AM on 09/24/2012

There is a more basic problem for Romney, and the softball media enables his problem.

Last night on 60 Minutes his answers to specifics were nothing more than Conservative Republican theories...He refuses to give details about his plans and never says anything concrete. Both Ryan and Romney say we need to build consensus on the particulars after we elect them...isn't that just a definition of Politics in America? Aren't you supposed to have a position yourself?

He refuses to lay out anything more than a "Republican Vision for America" He throws out some "hot button" topics for his base like "Repeal and Replace Obamacare"..but is extremely evasive about what he would actually do to replace it. When he is pushed for details it is clear that he wants to eliminate the most popular provisions and turn over control to insurers.. but he won't say that directly.

His big message is to turn over virtually all federal programs to the states in the form of block grants..
He apparently believes they will do a better job and he really doesn't need to have a position on these programs because the states will be running them...

So if you want to know the results of Romney's policies on federal programs you will have to ask your state legislatures, or your congressman, or a lobbyist who will actually be influencing the decisions...

So why would we need Romney?

[Tommee]

10:05 AM on 09/24/2012

Mr. Kennedy, your take on the election is from the perspective of a game player. Truth is there is something far more profound in this presidential election that brings it outside of your classroom politics. I'm talking about reality and evidence. There can be no question in the minds of rational voters on what conservative economic policies -- Romney's current economic plan by the way -- did to the economy over the last few decades. There is no ambiguity for voters about the self imposed contradictions Romney faces -- think of 'Obamney Care' when it surfaces in the next couple of weeks -- and Romney can't hide behind any attempts to smoke screen his questionable tax returns. No Mr. Kennedy, Romney faces a far bigger challenge than overcoming your little gaming rules. He is a flawed candidate who must mask reality to con America's thinking independent voters.

[frank1946]

06:41 AM on 09/24/2012

Socialists still believe in FREE LUNCH ?

Yes, of course !

Unions are not good at running America. They cannot compete in the Marketplace for Labor or Ideas.

Obama is only a Union Man................That's All There Is, My Friends !

Anybody BUT Obama.

[Spooky Smith]

08:23 AM on 09/24/2012

Well considering how well China's socialist economy is doing, maybe what you might want to consider is that the problem isn't government control over the economy, but rather total deregulation.

[BillinFla]

11:48 AM on 09/24/2012

Yeah, those pesky unions that gave us the five-day work week, paid vacations, employer-provided group health insurance, child labor laws, safe workplace regulations, and the rise of a broad middle class.

Oh, to return to the days of sweatshops and 25 cent an hour wages!

[Stephen Fox5]

05:30 AM on 09/24/2012

Too bad the author did not mention the campaign's use of voter suppression to reduce the black vote. That is one of the Romney strategies that appears to be working.

[Tb0n3]

08:48 PM on 09/23/2012

The Republican party has no capacity for introspection. They blame the message, the messenger, tactics, and the media. At no point do the consider that (just maybe) they have alienated over half the population in their slide to the right.

[Chinawanderer]

08:46 PM on 09/23/2012

One of the problems with political discourse in America today is the emphasis on form over substance. Mr. Romney's problems stem not from "messaging" or whatever the latest buzzword but rather from his messgae. Mr. Romney's entire political platform is rooted in the historically disproven ideas of social Darwinism and trickle on the people economics coupled with archaic ideas on social issues. His vision for what will "make America great again" is rooted in his glowing description of that Chinese factory and his disdain for much of the American population.

Add to the idea of the repugnance of his message with his sense of entitlement to the office and his seeming belief that all he needed to do was say "Obama bad" to achieve his coronation, you have a better idea of why he is failing and why he can't turn it arround.

Mr. Romney does not suffer from bad messaging but rather from bad ideas and a bad attitude.

[ssmith3209]

08:43 PM on 09/23/2012

He can't change who he is. He will cut all programs that benefit anybody in the middle class or below. That savings will go to pay for more tax breaks for the rich.

[Spooky Smith]

06:19 PM on 09/23/2012

"The good news for Romney is that his current campaign woes are largely from self-inflicted wounds. It remains in his hands to chart a path to victory."
43 days. From that you could practically subtract weekends since barring something major the weekend news cycle takes a back seat to enjoying a few days off,so 43-14= 29 days, but he can still turn this thing around if he.... wasn't Mitt Romney. It's too late to humanize him, that ship has sailed. He can hope for another foreign crisis that he can try not to flub, but that has a better chance of playing out in the presidents favor. As for message discipline, his message is often what is hurting him. I'm a Red Sox fan, I am well acquainted with the contortions you go through to convince yourself that the team can still turn things around, but sometimes it just isn't going to be your year.

[huffmatoo]

01:39 PM on 09/23/2012

"you and your kids are more likely to find rewarding work with Romney as your president"
--- MORE LIKELY!!?? That's all it takes to get Romney elected? Is this guy one of Romney's advisors? Did he tell Romney that he should state his insults more"elegantly"?

[LANETexasLonghorn]

12:46 PM on 09/23/2012

70% of Conservatives wanted ANYONE BUT ROMNEY, now 100% of Liberals and Independents AGREE.
President Obama = Anyone But Romney

[LANETexasLonghorn]

12:44 PM on 09/23/2012

I find it TOO FUNNY dozens of articles trying to advise Romney campaign how they could still beat President Obama, and hundreds of other Right Wing columns how the Romney campaign isn't OVER.
No one on the left is writing columns that the Obama campaign is OVER, and no one is giving President Obama a 3 point campaign advise.
The one way President Obama wins in 45 days....is NOT being Romney.

[huffmatoo]

12:33 PM on 09/23/2012

"Romney campaign must return to a path that fills it sails"
-- Romney just announced there is no need for change in his campaign. The only possibility is an "October surprise". I have no doubt republicans are ready to do whatever it takes.. Another terrorist attack?

[medproof]

12:26 PM on 09/23/2012

Central problem is that he has to "try" so many approaches. he is nothing at his core except a corporate cannibal.

Not presidential. Ann's right -- we are lucky he's running. We can see who he is and properly dodge that b.u.l.l.e.t.

[rbenjamin]

12:17 PM on 09/23/2012

Kennedy gives good advice about running a campaign once the candidate has won the primaries, but surviving the primary process demands almost exactly the opposite.

Primaries take place in states, they are inherently a series of small field contests.

Message discipline in almost impossible during a long series of primaries. Your opponents lever you off message with wedge issues. Romney drifted far right to win the primaries, which set him up to be off message going into the general election. All those off messages are still running 24-7 on the internet, ready to flare up at any critical moment. As we saw in the Boca tape.

Primaries tend to divide a party, and Romney used carpet bombing advertising to demolish his fellow Republican opponents. The lack of trust among Republicans is palpable during this general election. Romney is stuck with a small circle of his own making.

Maybe a really strong candidate could have have avoided the 3 missteps, but he/she wasn't stepping up for the 2012 cycle.

[californiademo]

12:00 PM on 09/23/2012

Mr. Romney has been running for president since the late Cretaceous, more or less, so he should know how to do this by now. The mistakes he has made, I suggest, stem not from incidentals but rather from who he is. It's true that it might not be impossible for his campaign to turn things around, but based on the candidate's long track record, I'd say still more missteps and unfortunate revelations of sentiment are on the menu for the next month-and-a-half. The problem isn't a gaffe or two here or there, or a few campaign missteps, it's something more fundamental: he's selling a "product" that doesn't find approval with a majority of the people. There seem to be precious few who haven't already made their minds up, so there's very little wiggle room as we come nearer election day. I think the president's chances are excellent.