Election 2008: Nobody Knows Anything
"Nobody knows anything."
- William Goldman, "Adventures In The Screen Trade"
In a Northern Virginia Starbucks tucked snugly away in a featureless shopping center not far from Washington D.C., a man, once solid, but now thickening in late middle age, looks around furtively, almost warily, before he leans in to his companions, and says, loud enough for me to overhear,
"This country will never elect a black man president."
The two middle-age women, one stylish in a pink silk t-shirt, Cartier watch and diamond rings, the other older and frumpier in a "Cougars for Hillary" sweatshirt, nod knowingly. The older woman sighs,
"He's too young. He has no experience."
The younger woman shakes her head in agreement,
"I can't bring myself to vote for McCain though."
"Oh what a horrible dilemma," the older woman laments.
"It's not good," the man agrees.
"How's the diet going?" the younger woman asks, suddenly brightening.
Politics now safely behind them, the three make small talk for a few minutes before the man says his goodbyes and leaves. I watch as he exits the store and climbs into a brand new Mercedes convertible.
The man is African American, as are his two women friends.
My mother, 84 year-old Ann Evry of Silver Spring,
Maryland, canvasses Virginia voters
On the last leg of a flight from Los Angeles to Baltimore, a pale man in his late 30s with thin hair and thick glasses boards the plane in Nashville and takes the seat next to mine. Seeing the Obama "Hope" sticker on my laptop, he starts up a conversation by telling me Obama was the first candidate he ever gave money to. I learn he lives in an exurb south of Baltimore. I ask him if Obama will do well in his part of the world.
"Oh yes," he says, "A lot of people in my neighborhood have lawn signs up."
He tells me he's voting for Obama for most of the usual reasons I hear from supporters -- he's tired of eight years of mismanaged government, the war in Iraq, the economy, loss of civil liberties, the desire for real bipartisanship in Washington. He asks me how long I've been interested in politics. I make my usual joke, that I grew up the daughter of liberals, in a household where I thought Nixon's first name was "goddamn."
He laughs and tells me his parents voted for Nixon. In fact, he tells me, he's voted Republican in every presidential election -- he voted for George Bush twice.
He's a Republican. As are most of his neighbors. And they're all voting for Obama.
Katheryn Fredgrin of Reston, VA registers voters at
a commuter train station in Burke, VA
Last week I left Los Angeles to donate my time and energy to the Obama campaign in Fairfax County, Virginia. Virginia, with its 13 electoral votes, is one of the most hotly contested of the swing states. Both Obama and McCain are pouring resources into Northern Virginia, just across the Potomac River within sight of our nation's Capitol. The local airwaves are littered with McCain and Obama TV ads I'd so far only seen on the internet. Yet on the ground, the Obama campaign seems to have the greater visibility. There are six Obama field offices in Fairfax County alone, 27 in all of Virginia. I've seen a lot of Obama bumper stickers and lawn signs, but not a one for McCain. Field data I'd been allowed to see had Obama way ahead in many areas of Northern Virginia, but closely on the heels of McCain in others, and depressingly behind in many southern and southwestern parts of the state (think Appalachia).
Virginia, and maybe the election, will be won or lost on the banks of the Potomac River.
I stood outside MacDonalds trolling for unregistered voters, canvassed door to door in modest leafy neighborhoods with bucolic street names like Surry Hill Place and Marblehead Court, and made countless phone calls trying to cajole the undecided and the uneasy. Every new day on the ground brought with it at least one slap-me-in-the-face-like-a-wet-sardine moment of clarity.
Forget everything you've heard and read. Whether it's Fox, MSNBC, NPR, the New York Times or the Huffington Post. Nobody knows anything.
From the privileged white college kid who tells me he's registered but won't vote because our best days are behind us and "all the other countries are going to gang up on us and we're going to die" to the Hispanic evangelical Army captain who'd be happy to abolish the Departments of Education, Labor and Energy, but who hopes McCain will lose. You can't poll this.
Remember this the next time you hear some pundit wonder why Obama "can't close the deal" or you read yet another poll "proving" he has a "problem" with "working class white voters."
Because really, nobody knows anything.
Fairfax, Virginia, office
Canvassing in a Northern Virginia shopping mall
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What would be nice is if, after the campaigning is over and Obama is President, we see some of this wide range of support come to the fore. Individuals who surprise us by their interest in Obama will still need to recognize that he can't speak for JUST THEM. He's going to have to do what best works for us all.
I'm thinking articles like yours should be sent fresh to his new government after the first few months. Okay, now, remember that it's a lot of really different people, just just what you might think from having lived on CNN for the past two years.
(And I say this as a too-liberal-for-liberals kind of person. It remains that he'll be the government for the people, not just some of.)
This is something we've always known. The press reports the news as they would like it to be. No basis in reality.
The bottom line is that the MSM won't come out with the truth because if the Public knows the truth, the MSM will lose ad revenue. The truth is that Obama will win in a landslide. ANY Democrat that is even or ahead in North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia and Mississippi at this stage (or ANY stage) in the game has ALWAYS won in a landslide (over 400 Electoral Votes). Of course, if honestly reported, everyone would switch off the boob tube and make plans for the inaugural.
What wins elections is intelligent candidates who understands the times in which we live and who have a measure of competency to effectuate the changes we require to capitalize on those times. At this particular time in our nation's history, that candidate is Barack Obama.
I have never in my life donated money or helped in any way a campaign of any sort, but I have both donated and helped the Obama campaign here in Orange County, CA., which by the way is a conservative stronghold.
There are alot of people doing the same thing here. Truth is...the average person gets it! We understand times have changed and we realize that we have to move in a new and better direction in the United States. McCain just doesn't understand---McCain just doesn't get it.
If you found this story encouraging, here's what you can do to help.......
Obviously, the Virginia operation will live or die on sweat equity, or just plain equity.
First, donate to the campaign. I will match the first $250.00 donated. Please go to my fundraising page on my.barackobama.com to make a donation. That way I can keep track.
https://donate.barackobama.com/page/contribute/pf?outreach_page_id=45684
Second, volunteer. Here's a link to all the campaign offices in Virginia.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/vaoffices
If my 84-year old mother, who's on oxygen 24/7 can do it, what's your excuse not to?
Your mom BAROCKS!
I contribute to Obama financially but I need to do more phone calls and canvassing!
Good post - and encouraging.
I went through the whole gamut of issues with a guy who stopped by our booth. Thought I was dealing with a semi-intelligent guy - though of course his last objection was "well, I like to keep my guns" and then he turned the Obama sticker sideways and say "you know if you look at it this way - you can kind of see a muslim symbol in this.
Yes - that's right the blue "O" with the red and stripes on the bottom somehow can be turned into a red crescent when you turn the blue to red, add a handle, remove the red and white stripes - turn the background red and completely change the shape of the top of the "O". I guess that's the Republican Rohrschach test - they can see a "muslim symbol" in a twinkee. Sometimes you just want to say "there's a special election being held on November 5 for people with your level of insight".
One thing I do know is that TURNOUT decides elections. Pollsters try to predict turnout - who is really going to vote, not just who would these "random" people vote for if they did vote. But it's probably fairly similar to trying to predict the weather. There are some clues; still, it's just not in our power to predict the future. That's why the lackluster polls don't bother me as much as they bother some Obama supporters. I've seen in the Obama campaign from the very beginning a keen understanding of how the process works, including the importance of turnout, and a very well-organized, well-strategized effort to collect and use resources effectively. That gives me a lot of confidence.
The efficiency and organization level, as well as the clear bipartisan outreach, give much cause for confidence. Its how I'd like to see my government run. The best run campaign since ... ??
he polls bother me, but probably more than they should. I felt so burned after Kerry lost and I'm something of a fatalist anyway.
But you're right, the ground game can make a major, major difference. And one thing people forget is the fact that Obama and his team stared down and beat the single biggest name in Democratic politics since the Kennedys. I also try to keep in mind that Hillary Rodham Clinton is far more intelligent, articulate and nuanced than John McCain can ever even hope to be. So if Obama can defeat her...
Ride the wave my man....:)
"...who'd be happy to abolish the Departments of Education, Labor and Energy, but who hopes McCain will lose."
Yeah, it's strange. Libertarianism is like the new thing, y'know? I don't know why, but partially thanks to Ron Paul and mostly thanks to the Internet and the absence of facts, everyone seems to think it's a good idea. They don't know what the ramifications of getting rid of every government agency and program would be, nor do they care. People seem to have a nihilistic everyone-for-themselves attitude. And I thought I was cynical.
Libertarianism does tend to be somewhat nihilistic economically, but I always admired their steadfast commitment to civil liberties. Libertarian philosophy is hardly new. It is grounded in the ideas of Enlightenment Humanism and espoused in the idealistic but outmoded agenda of Jeffersonian, agrarian democracy. The "everyone-for-themselves" attitude seems more Republican than Libertarian...
In practical terms, a Libertarian movement will only help Obama and other Democrats because they can draw potentially many votes from Republicans, who have absolutely no principles whatsoever outside of money and power. Libertarians are at least sincere about their own bullshit!
Mostly the people that can't function in the present reality have that attitude.
this is sad. Unfortunately these people vote.
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