Reality Check Amidst The Joy: Prepare for 2010 and 2012

I am of course thrilled by the results.

Being an old bird -- and I believe a wise old bird -- I am also impelled to think ahead.

Notwithstanding the eloquence and nobility of Obama's victory speech last night and his aspirations for healing the divisions of the past -- I am not convinced that the entire conservative movement and Republican Party will view this magnificent achievement in quite the same light.

Despite everything we have been through the past 8 years NEARLY 56 MILLION AMERICANS VOTED FOR McCAIN OVER OABAMA. We ignore this fact at our peril.

The diehard conservatives who have been the enemy of progress since the 1930s -- and who fought the culture wars of the 1960s and its second incarnation 1992-2006 -- have not been decimated. And are not planning to share Obama's peace pipe and join in what they regard as a kumbaya moment. They will fight back. And to believe otherwise is to allow jubilation to blind us from reality.

This battle we have been fighting (some of us for over 40 years) against the conservative movement is not checkers. It's chess.

It's complex and it lasts a lot longer.

We have won a magnificent victory. Now -- how do we build on this victory and ensure an enduring Democratic White House and Congress over the inevitable conservative fightback that they are plotting even as we celebrate?

I am reminded of an exchange between two characters in Alan Bennett's first play -- premiered in 1968 -- and very aptly (given the year we're in) titled Forty Years On...

Very elderly spinster school matron: "It's frightfully warm in here. Do you think anyone would object if I were to undo the top button of my blouse?"

School Headmaster(with suitable sarcasm): "Have a care Matron - lest you unleash passions that you are powerless to control..."

That is my worry about all the magnificent achievements of Barack Obama and the Two Davids (Axelrod and Plouffe) who have successfully felled (in 2008) the collective Goliath of the conservative movement.

Obama has unleashed passions -- and expectations -- that he is powerless to control.

In the RealPolitik of the world -- the Republicans will now start moving heaven and earth to cripple the Obama presidency from Day One.

They will conspire to have a mid-term election revival in 2010 -- and will be very powerfully motivated to cut back the House and Senate majorities. They will try to make 2010 into 1994 again. They won't succeed -- but they will aim to make good-size dents in the majorities -- as a staging post for 2012.

And they will do everything in their power to make Obama a one-term president.

In electoral terms , they may be able to do that without getting that many new votes.

They could do it by aiming to depress all the new voters who Obama has brought in.

Simply depressing the Democratic vote in 2010 and 2012 could allow Republicans back into contention.

A very large percentage of the new Democratic voters have been bought into the fold by the mantra of "Change". And naturally they expect to see "Change". Especially the younger, more idealistic first-time voters.

Those of us who have lived a few years know that real change takes a lot of time to effect in a massive nation the size of the USA. And even longer to manifest itself.

Americans suffer from ADD. Especially young Americans.

What is the plan to keep those first-time voters -- and the hope-inspired independents -- fired up through the inevitable slow path to see and experience tangible change?

What is the plan to ensure that all these new voters are as passionate as they have been in 2008 -- when it will be truly essential -- at the 2010 mid-terms and the 2012 general election?

Or has Obama unleashed passions that he is powerless to control?

And raised expectations that cannot possibly be fulfilled in time to motivate enough of 2008's new voters to be equally motivated when it really counts in 2010 and 2012?

We don't know.

But I sure as hell hope that the Two Davids have a plan...

Because the Wrath Of the conservative Goliath is waiting to wreak revenge on us all.

What they did to FDR in 1933-1944, Carter in 1977-1980 and Clinton in 1993-2000 is but prologue.

You read it (and perhaps scoffed about it) here first...

coming our way soon. We'd better be ready....

Read more reaction from HuffPost bloggers to Barack Obama's victory in the 2008 presidential election

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Comments

[itmaybetoolate]

HuffPost's Pick

Here you go Martin:

"Boehner, in his letter, makes this pretty clear:

America remains a center-right country. Democrats should not make the mistake of viewing Tuesday's results as a repudiation of conservatism or a validation of big government. Neither should we. Instead of throwing in the towel, as our opponents demand, we must redouble our efforts to develop forward-looking solutions to the challenges Americans face - solutions rooted in the enduring principles of reform that define us as a party. We need to focus on winning the issues, one by one, and presenting principled, superior alternatives that reflect the center-right priorities of the American people, rather than the self-serving priorities of Washington."

On the nosey!

[jsanglier]

If I had a pound for every politician who announced that they should focus on the issues I would ... well my curry would have better ingredients in it this weekend.

The problem is that ALL politicians (which side of the political blanket is meaningless here) are in the end more concerned with style than anything else.

They have been told time and time again by people who sell (I suppose people like me who writes advertising) that it doesn't matter a hoot what the message is, if people are not listening, they wont hear it.

The trouble is that "issues" are complicated, whereas soap powder is simple. I can afford to focus on the presentation of the message because the message it self can be summed up in a few words.

With issues, by the time you have sorted out the presentation there is no time left for the issue - so you leave it out and hope that the one or two brief words will suffice.

And you know what? It does.

Although most people care about issues, they hate having to listen to them - the adverts are basically more fun!

[itmaybetoolate]

HuffPost's Pick

Martin, a buzzkiller, but you are right. Wounded animals are the most dangerous. However, after last night, I really do believe that anything is possible and that America is backing away from the precipice. And, you are right to focus on voting suppression. We MUST fix the system, although it seemed to work much better than expected yesterday. Keep us honest Mr. Lewis!

[jsanglier]

Ah, Wise Old Bird (Or Grasshopper as I think suits you better), you have made some interesting points - actually you made rather a lot of points.

Back here in old Blighty, we tend to look at the differences between the conservatives and the liberals in a rather different light.

There appears to be an almost complete lack of anything vaguely resembling left wing in your neck of the woods. In the UK we have proper left wings. Ones that have no problem with being "accused" of being socialist. I think you sat happily in that gathering when you were here.

The existence of these left wing groups create a proper centre ground where all true minded people are then happy to gather.

In the US of delightfully A, even the Democrats sit slightly right of centre, just next to John McCain (though a considerable distance from Palin). Which means that by our definition over here, the Democrats ARE the conservatives. And the Republicans? Well, they seem so fragmented that I cannot place them anywhere.

Put it this way, the leader or OUR Conservative party will probably find more in common with Obama than he ever would with Palin.

So, before you go off and hunt conservative. you better make sure your are not going to end up chasing your own tail!

Toodle Pip!

Joss http://www.sanglier.co.ukk)