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Martin Varsavsky

Martin Varsavsky

Posted: October 18, 2009 04:58 AM

What If 9-11 Was a Freak Event?

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Read More: 9/11 , Al Qaeda , Politics News

Al Qaeda's actions on 9/11 2001 changed America's view of the world. After the terrorist attacks the Bush administration came to the conclusion that America as a whole was under attack from the Middle East and that the solution was to move that war away from home into the Muslim countries. But what if the US government, first the Bush administration and now the Obama administration, are wrong and the incredibly successful Al Qaeda attacks of 9/11 were not the beginning of a war on America or the West but a freak event?

In 2005 Safe Democracy, my foundation co- organized the largest conference ever put on the subject of terrorism. The conference was attended by many heads of state and 1300 experts from the Middle East and the rest of the world. One of the highlights of the conference was the decision of Kofi Annan to choose this event to announce the UN Principles for Nations to apply when fighting terrorism. These principles were understood by many as a warning to the US that terrorism could not be fought with more terror, a la Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib. Also around that time it become clear that the subsequent attacks that seemed to resembled 9/11, namely the bombings on March 11 in Madrid and July 7 in London were home grown efforts of a very different kind. These tragic post 9/11 terrorist bombings were found to be not so much a continued attack by Al Qaeda but the story of angry immigrants who were reacting to Spain and UK participating in the invasion of Iraq. In other words, these attacks were not originated in the Middle East but instead the consequence of our involvement in the Middle East. Terror in the form of brutal air bombings, torture on behalf of the US and EU occupying forces, led to more terror in Europe. Out of fighting Al Qaeda with methods perceived as unreasonably brutal by Muslim immigrants in Europe a new type of home grown terrorism was born. It was this realization that made Spain's President Zapatero pull out from Iraq and since then the threat of Islamic terrorism has diminished.

So the question here is why the USA and EU continue to believe that occupation of either Iraq and Afghanistan, or only Afghanistan, is the best regional strategy. Many commentators still believe that we are safer because we occupy Afghanistan and Iraq. But lately many have been changing their views and are beginning to agree that Osama Bin Laden was a freak terrorist with a very personal agenda, who because of his own international background and skills, had his own global war to carry. We should not manage our international agenda thinking that the globally minded Osama Bin Laden is the rule but that even the most radical elements in the Muslim world are now focused in regional objectives in countries that are mostly Muslim or have large Muslim populations, such as the tragic attacks on India. Few critical observers believe that whoever is fighting Europe and the US in Afghanistan, for example, wants to actually attack Europe or the US the way Osama Bin Laden did. Instead most conflict in Afghanistan, and the Middle East in general, now is against occupying forces or Palestinian/Israeli, Sunni/Shia and moderate vs radical Islam.

Al Qaeda type attacks outside of the Middle East, like the attack in Mumbai, are serious but not the driving force of violence in the Middle East. The only way to prevent those is not for India to invade Pakistan, where a lot of radical Islam is based, but to better protect itself. By now it is clear that most of the fighters in Afghanistan just want the US and EU out of their country and will fight us like they fought the British 100 years ago and the Russians 30 years ago. But just like they did not go on attacking Great Britain after it pulled out of Afghanistan a century ago, I don't think that even a Taliban Afghanistan will include a successor to Osama Bin Laden planning the next 9/11 out of there. I think that part of the message the Taliban got as well as Qaddafi got his when we bombed his home. And indeed, our enemies in Afghanistan want to turn the country back into the Middle Ages forcing men to wear beards, oppressing women, banning music and so on, but is it our role to turn the Middle East into Western democracies or to protect our way of life and economies in our own countries? Because if the answer is the former we could invade Saudi Arabia next, as most 9/11 attackers were Saudis and they also promote a way of life which we find that violates the rights of women, homosexuals and other groups who deserve their human dignity. But can we afford a global crusade for dignity? Would you send your child to die so the homosexuals of Iran, for example, stop getting the death penalty? Nobody seems to advocate that.

We have squandered over a trillion dollars occupying and policing Iraq and Afghanistan, trying for those countries to become something they don't want to be. In the meantime we have been responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths, the devastation of Iraq and Afghanistan's fragile economies and we have given an impossible task to our military who are dying for a dubious cause in tragic ways. What we should be doing instead is focusing our precious human and financial resources in making sure that those who intend to destroy us, freaks like Osama Bin Laden, do not get hold of nuclear weapons or the infamous weapons of mass destruction and achieve their personal objectives. And I say personal because I travel the Middle East enough to conclude that most Muslims want to be like us rather than see us become like them. But to make sure that the next Osama does not show up with real weapons we need better cooperation with Russia and China who also suffer terribly from Islamic terrorism. We have to work with them not only because they are victims of the same phenomenon, their countries border the Islamic world but also if we antagonize them, they can be the reason why the next Osama Bin Laden does show up with a nuclear weapon. In short what we have to do is to make sure that 9 11 continues to be the biggest and most successful terrorist attack in history, a freak event that is never again repeated.

 

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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
rf dude
Just an average Man of Bronze - now in Steel!
09:45 AM on 10/20/2009
Because the dramatic deaths of ~3,000 people in the WTC in a one-time event 8 years ago

is considered far more " important " than

the " mundane " deaths of 38,000+ people annually in auto accidents in this country alone...

http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx
12:00 PM on 10/19/2009
How is it there is never any criticism of how Clinton responded to terror attacks against the US during his incompetent reign? The 1993 attack on the WTC,... or the 1998 attack on the US embassies in Africa,.... or the 2000 attack on the USS Cole? It seems the terrororists became more empowered and their attacks more horrific when their assaults went unanswered. I am not a Bush fan,... but the US was under attack from radical Islam long before Bush took office. Doing nothing [ under Clinton ] didn't slow the terrorist down a bit...
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
den1953
The National Inquire of Politics the GOP!
11:27 AM on 10/19/2009
By opening up the 9/11 theory of being a freak accident i think you need to answer a different question and was it a deal gone bad by the Bush family and the Bin Laden family? I have reservations about how the Saudi's linked Iraq with the terrorist attack unless they new it was coming long before the real attack. The fear of terrorism for 8 years to bolster our foreign policy and giving the Bush Administration card blance on everything Bush wanted! Finally anyone with common sense can see time after time those towers could not have fell if not weakened by pressure on the lower floors.
09:53 AM on 10/19/2009
with NBC reporting that there were full attack plans on shrub's desk a few days before Sept. 11, is it even a wonder we're over there?
11:32 PM on 10/18/2009
Fundamental to understanding Al Qaeda is understanding why they attacked the US on 9/11. Reading their Declaration of War from 1998 (available in translation at PBS.ORG) states they attacked us due to our military intervention in the middle east, which they see as having three components --

1. Support of Israel
2. US troops in the holy land (Saudi Arabia)
3. US intervention in Iraq

So they came over here because we are over there. (Those like George W. Bush and John McCain, who say we are fighting them over there so we don't have to fight them here, have it exactly backwards.)

With their very basic misunderstanding of why the US was attacked, the Bush administration and fellow Neocons confused and conflated the Al Qaeda threat with completely unrelated actions by Hamas, other anti-Israeli militants, local Islamic militants in Kashmir, etc, etc. No wonder Bush started a generalized war against Islam that spans Somalia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel, Pakistan, Iran, and elsewhere.

But Bush's miscomprehension doesn't have to be our war. If only President Obama would act as the agent of change he promised in the election, rather than as the agent of continuity and compromise he now shows us.
03:18 PM on 10/19/2009
states they attacked us due to our military intervention in the middle east, which they see as having three components --

1. Support of Israel
2. US troops in the holy land (Saudi Arabia)
3. US intervention in Iraq

DUH.

It is infuriating that the reasons for their attack were completely ignored, black-balled, negated and all other fashions of disinformation and obfuscation.
There was NEVER any discussion of what OUR role was in the world situation that called this out. WE are never the bad guy... and still, we are such a whiny victim for such a woof woof "greatest country in the history of the world...blah blah". Waaa, we have to go kill Muslims!
Now, it wasn't as if we really didn't have the intelligence to know what this was about, we had the intelligence but chose to manipulate this event for the benefit of the MIC war-profiteers. We had tons of armaments we needed to "use up"...so we could contract for more for our beloved -barf- defense contractors that bleed our country dry without any conscience. Follow the money.
If Obama carries on with these phony wars, we must push Congress to DE-FUND these phony killing operations that make more terrorists faster than any other way .
11:08 PM on 10/18/2009
I applaud your proposal.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
DrP
11:06 PM on 10/18/2009
What a shame that this sort of analysis was not made in the fall of 2001. In the days after 9/11, as the shock wore off, I began to fear what sort of reaction there would be by the government. My worst fears, that "the war of terrorism" would not be a metaphor for intelligence and police actions against the organization that perpetrated the attack, but would become a literal war, were soon realized.
The Project for the New American Century formulated by the neo-cons set the stage for the Iraq War. It is chilling to read that document, which should have been "required reading" before anyone voted for Bush/Cheney. 9/11 gave them their excuse to invade Iraq and attempt to establish an American foothold in the Middle East for oil, for defense contracts, and to "protect" Israel.
The invasion of Afghanistan was undertaken for revenge - Americans were in the stage of mourning that demanded to blame someone and make them pay. With suicide attacks, the actual perpetrators deny the attacked any possible of justice (read "revenge") by their own deaths. Attacking two countries was never the way to deal with terrorism. With terrorism, the "enemy" is not a country, not a state, but Americans don't know any other way to deal with violence but to strike back. The past 8 years have been tragic for this country. I don't know what we will ever do to recover.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jcwtts1
Elections have consequences
09:35 PM on 10/18/2009
Interesting piece, and while I disagree, I believe that this is a conversation that needs to take place. My opinion is that two simultaneous events transpired to weaken and deflect AQ from attacking the US in the US again. First, Bush was crazy. He panicked and reacted in a non logical reasonable way. In fact, he exploded the disproportionate response doctrine and flew in the face of regional stabilization. He invaded to muslim countries one that was part of the attack on us and one that did not. He built up troops and resources in the area and made it clear to anyone who paid attention that if there was a second attack on American soil we would have invaded Iran and Syria. He did this regardless of the fact that the attackers on 9/11 were sunni and saudi. Bush limited the options that AQ had. Unless you wish to argue that AQ was fanatical and because of that willing to lose the middle east to Western aggression you have to believe that AQ did a cost lost analysis and realized that unless the could hit us with a nuke there was no amount of damage they could do that would be worth our reprisals. Second, because we were in Iraqthey could attack Americans daily and not risk the reprisals outlined above. So, they went to Iraq and moved to Pakistan, and functioned as they wished, killing Americans and arabs/muslims who helped us, and never reengage.
03:17 PM on 10/18/2009
What 9/11 represents in its own inimical way is a
perfect example of what's called 'asymmetric warfare'.
05:44 PM on 10/18/2009
If 9/11 is an example of "asymetric warfare", then it could not have been a [ freak ] event. Osama bin Laden has declared war against the US... and followers of this radical doctrine have been and are today still plotting attacks. Was Richard Reid [ shoebomber in Dec 2001 ] a freak event? Or Danny Boyd [ a convert to Islam ] palnning terror attacks against the US in July of this year a freak event? Najibullah Zazi arrested in Colorado in Sept for planning terror attacks against the US a freak event? Nope. All were Al Queda inspired and part of the Islamic Jihad that Osama bin Laden has declared against the US. Anyone who believes the that 9/11 was a freak event should take the time to read the "9/11 Commission Report". We will always be a divided nation as to the causes of 9/11, but its impossible to discount the attempted attacks against Americans that have been thwarted since 9/11 as freak events also.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
plaidsportcoat
10:19 PM on 10/18/2009
whitesupremacists have declared war on the usa in their websites over and over and over, yet, somehow, because our inept government has not chosen to see the links between these websites and the murderous acts of war they are waging on innocent americans, we don't have a war on terror when it REALLY, REALLY COUNTS - when the enemy is amongst us already. Pretty cowardly government.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
DasBoot
I accidentally cross-dressed today.
08:52 AM on 10/19/2009
I think nobody says we should stop being vigilant and aggressive against ANY individuals perpetrating or planning to perpetrate violence. But most of these individuals were in a sense freak terrorists. "Inspired" is not a very hard connection. Many plots would never have been workable (and yet we need to throw away our liquids at the airports...).
02:37 PM on 10/18/2009
9/11 was ANYthing but a freak event. It was the most devastating attack in a string of events that were planned by Al Queda. Al Queda continues to inspire other Islamic extremist as well eveidenced by the attacks the intelligence community has been able to stop before they were carried out since 9/11. "Freak event" is another word for "denial". The US and US interest abroad remain a target of either Al Queda or Al Queda inspired radicals evidenced by the following attacks:

1983 April 18th 83 people killed at the US Embassy in Beirut.

1983 Oct 29th- 241 US Marines are killed in a truck bombing in Beirut by the Islamic Jihad

1984-Sept 20th- The US embassy in the Beirut is bombed- 15 killed

1986- Sept 5th A Pan Am aircraft is hijacked by Palestinain terrorists. 20 killed.

1988- Pan Am flight 103 is blown up over Lockerbie Scotland. 259 killed.

1993- February 26th- A bomb explodes at World Trade Center. 6 killed 1,000 are injured.

1998- August 7th – The US embassies in Kenya and Dar es Salamm Tanzania are bombed.

2000- Oct 12th - USS Cole in Yemeni port of Aden is bombed. 17 American sailors killed.

The intelligence community has thwarted dozens of Al Queda inspired attacks since 9/11. 9/11 was not a freak event, but rather another in a chain of attacks that AQ or other Islamic radicals have planned and carried out for decades.
11:57 PM on 10/18/2009
Good point. But, I believe Mr Varsavsky's assertion is that we may be more constructive by not viewing these acts of terrorism any differently from home-grown acts of terror. Because we may never eliminate all sources of terrorism, it might be more productive to focus on prevention and protection. We’re expending a lot of resources and capital. We cannot realistically invade every country and community we feel threaten us. It’s unclear that our returns from this commitment will exceed those that could be realized under the approach proposed by Mr. Varsavsky. In fact, we might be more at risk b/c we have limited our ability to respond to current and future challenges.

This doesn’t mean that there are not times to invade or attack, but, Mr. Varsavsky has made a compelling argument for stepping back and re-evaluating the most effective use of our resources.
11:32 AM on 10/18/2009
The problem as I see it is that we still haven't stated a clear objective with our presence in the middle east. Are we there just to eradicate the Fundamentalist Terrorist groups, or are we there to democratize and modernize the region? Or, as I suspect, are we there simply to procure and secure the vast oil fields that the region holds, for our own selfish use? Or are we going to continue the Bush policy of attempting to occupy and Christianize the region?

Regardless of what our intentions in the middle east are, we are going about it the wrong way. If we are to be successful and get to a place where the people see us as allies, we need to go in there with more shovels, bricks and books, and fewer guns. The last way to gain someone's trust is to kill one of their family, even if the person deserves it. We need to give them the power, through education and infrastructure building, to build whatever life they want to build for themselves, and if we do that, they will (hopefully) be grateful and cooperate with our wants and needs and GIVE us what we may be tempted to otherwise take by force
03:31 PM on 10/19/2009
Right. How many communities in Afghanistan would be agitated if we pulled in a fully equipped school on the back of a semi truck?
How relieved would they be when they heard a big machine coming and it wasn't a tank but a Mobile Clinic?
What if we brought mobile Libraries to the villages rather than a truck load of armed soldiers with big guns?
It doesn't take a genius to know what kindness is. It doesn't take a genius to know that bombing wedding parties from a drone operated from a computer screen in Florida ferchrissakes...is NOT going to do anything but make more enemies.
DUH DUH and DUH.
10:57 AM on 10/20/2009
Agreed,

But because a Drone is faster, easier and makes a bigger impact we're using those instead of our brains
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
henryberry
MASSACRE IN NEWTOWN Adam Lanza Passage to Madness
10:48 AM on 10/18/2009
Varsavsky hypothesizes that 9/11 was a "freak event." There's no question it can be looked at this way. However, another way--a more relevant way--of looking at 9/11 is as a typical, familiar terrorist incident intended for maximum sensationalism and publicity. It was not the beginning of a war on America and the West, but the latest incident in a pattern of hostility toward America and the West. No one with any knowledge of the militancy, skills, commitment, and patience of Islamic fundamentalist radicals was surprised by 9/11. The only thing that would have been surprising was its audacity--but this too was explicable by the trait of Americans to fail to grasp that anyone would be hostile to them and the distraction of the Bush administration parading as governing.

That 9/11 was a sensationalistic, essentially symbolic (though exceptionally deadly) event was evident both logically and with reference to the militant ideology of the Islamic terrorists. With regard to the former, there was not after all a fleet of aircraft carriers and battleships waiting offshore to invade America; not was there any standing army anywhere ready to invade. As for the ideology, the resources for pursuit of this are limited--hence resorting to, but also limited to events such as 9/11.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Lt
11:25 AM on 10/18/2009
Long winded, and completely unnecessary response to the article.

A one word response would have done it, and that word is.

DUH!

9/11 was an accident, the planes hitting the building was the only thing expected

that the buildings fell and exacerbated the incident was pure luck for the terrorists.

The idiots war against terrorism is a political ploy to keep the republi'CON's in power.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
JWB2012
12:13 PM on 10/18/2009
"FELL"? Like building 7 ( that they won't show, ever, on tv)? You're not serious.
10:38 AM on 10/18/2009
9/11 was a "freak" event indeed, if one buys the official narrative of amateur pilots working aviation miracles, two of the world's tallest steel and concrete structures pulverized into fine powder by hydrocarbon based office fires, and a third skyscraper, not hit by a plane magically imploding at virtually free fall speed.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
LeftRight
TANSTAAFL
01:36 PM on 10/18/2009
First, they were hardly amateur pilots. They had been well trained.

Second, the buildings were not turned to dust by hydrocarbon fires. They were WEAKENED by hydrocarbon fires, and then GRAVITY did the rest.

Third, building 7 was brought down by the same thing, fires which weakened the building, coupled with two 110 story buildings weakening its foundation, coupled with two 110 story buildings throwing a lot of debris on it when they collapsed.

Fourth, all three of the buildings that collapsed on that day took more than TWICE free fall speed to collapse, you just aren't counting the first second of collapse!
HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
WorkingClass
10:28 AM on 10/19/2009
You could spend a life time chasing fire trucks and you would never see a building collapse vertically and symmetrically onto its own foundations. Never. Because it does not happen. Your post is a cry for help.
10:17 AM on 10/18/2009
Maybe we should never just not shut the US Air Force down for an entire day like we did on 9-11-2001, ostensibly for a drill
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Kaviraj
10:32 AM on 10/18/2009
I think the main thing is not to have another Dick Cheney in charge on such days.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Lt
11:25 AM on 10/18/2009
right on dude!
09:26 AM on 10/18/2009
Home-grown means done by infiltrators