Why Hillary Will Win

What a race, huh?

It's hard to believe that after, what, 35 debates Kucinich is starting to look good. At least with Dennis you knew what he believed in. A bit naïve in analysis maybe, but if any of the remaining candidates had that kind of clear picture of where they were going to take us, it would be a runaway.

The debate to end all debates, the one-on-on-one Hillary vs. Obama on MSNBC Tuesday night, was as confusing as usual. Too much about health care, and yet too little. Then Hillary made her snippy remarks about always getting the first question and how the media is overly kind to Obama, working in that product-placement commercial for Saturday Night Live. Obama won by a pillow. But Hillary looked like your old algebra teacher.

So now we go to the people again. The vote in Ohio and Texas on March 4, the pundits are all telling us, is a make or break deal for the candidates. When the votes in Ohio are counted -- or mislaid, miscounted or otherwise confabulated, this being Ohio -- and the even stranger Texas-style hybrid of mixing popular voting and caucus, we will know finally whether it's Obama or Hillary for president in 2008. Have we heard that before? My prediction is after Pennsylvania and whatever laggard states still missed the primary media coverage gold rush, there will be some delegates for Obama and some for Hillary. About one hundred will separate the two.

In other words, Obama and Hillary will still be neck and neck as they come down the home stretch this summer in Denver. It's a horse race, as TV news likes to see all presidential nominating races, even when the result has been predetermined in smoke-filled back rooms.

The way Hillary has lost 11 straight states, it may look bad. But her fans should not despair. If she is behind in the delegate count after Pennsylvania, she still won't pack up her pants suits and sulk off to her tent in Chappaqua.

So how is all of this going to play out?

I will tell you even though I am going to lose a lot of friends with this scenario.

Things haven't quite worked out exactly as the Clintonistas planned in the Clinton War Room, as the inner family circle is known. Originally, Obama was seen as a blocking back. He would knock out all the other candidates in the crowded field, while making the big hole enabling Hillary to run to daylight, as they say.

Now it's all coming down to superdelegates. How the SD's will be going has been studied by the punditocracy with the precision of cable news executives studying chicken entrails as a clue to what the public will watch.

Does anybody really expect the Clinton war machine to let victory slip through their hands just because a few hundred delegates appear to be having trouble making up their minds?

The undecideds in the superdelegation ranks are the key to victory, the pundits are telling us.

They are ignoring Plan B.

Hillary's people in the War Room have been holding maneuvers in preparation for this current war since 1992. The same people who destroyed Paula Jones and Genifer Flowers in the Great Clinton Media War of 1992 would be able to destroy any opposition today.

The War Room muscle man-in-chief, of course, is Harold Ickes, veteran of the 1992-6 Clintonian Wars and current assistant to the campaign manager. Harold the Enforcer and his minions are the vacuum cleaners who collect dirt on everybody in the game.

They happened to run into a year when nobody seems to want to read about it. Or the people have come to believe the world is so dirty, and everybody is so criminal anyway.

Nevertheless, we can assume the War Room warriors have finished their background checks on the superdelegates.

While some pundits may think superdelgates are starry-eyed idealists who have been designated to follow the dictates of their constituents or their own conscience, every superdelegate is basically a party hack, if not a fool. They will hear a knock on the door one day. "Mr. Ickes is here to see you."

"We've got one of three choices for you," the delegates will hear the visitor outline a proposal. "We can kill you. Or we can release all the stuff in your file to the press. Or we can give you $3,000. What sounds better?"

So don't be surprised if you see a hundred or so superdelegates having second thoughts about voting for Obama.

The reason Hillary will win the nomination, I predict, is because somebody dropped a file on somebody's desk.

That's why Harold Ickes was able to say earlier in the week: "We're closing in on the nomination." And maybe they are.

You have to go back to the early days of labor negotiations to understand the mechanics of this magical progression in thought process. A story is told about a worker named Louie who was violently anti-union. Came the vote for a union shop, and Louie vote for the union. Louie's friend, Max, said, "Louie, you were always so against the union. How come you voted for the union?"

"They never explained it to me before," the new union man said. "If you don't vote for the union, we will break your legs."

Comments

[SamThornton]

Marvin, Marvin, Marvin. You either needed to add [snark] tags here or be more nutty. I know you're kidding around and you know you're kidding around, but everyone else?

[markkraft]

Out of curiosity, do you write science fiction for a living?!

Really, I don't see this possibly happening, for a few reasons:

1> Obama is already ahead by over 100 delegates. 102 today, according to CNN.

2> The latest polls clearly indicate that Texas, Ohio, etc. will be a push, at best, for Hillary Clinton. My guess is that she gets a narrow lead in Ohio, a narrow loss in the Texas primary, and a solid thumping in the Texas caucus. She wins tiny RI, pushes in VT, and ends the night down another 20 delegates, with commentators saying that she'll probably stay in the race for awhile, but that a win is Huckabee style impossible. The next few states before Pennsylvania are made for Obama, and will see to it that he rides into Pennsylvania with all the momentum and about four times the cash-on-hand.

3> Barack Obama has a huge lead in the money race *AND* he has no debts and a lower overhead. That means that he'll be able to vastly outspend Hillary in states which she ordinarily might win, like Pennsylvania, and will also have the kind of money to turn states like North Carolina from mere 12% victories to complete blowouts..­. and when it comes to tallying up electoral votes, there is a HUGE difference between a 20% win and the kind of 3-5% wins that Hillary Clinton could only hope for in states like Pennsylvania.

4> The DNC -- and especially Howard Dean -- has already made it clear that they're going to push back against the Clintons, should they dare to cross the will of the voters. The DNC is going to call this race by mid-March if they can reasonably show that she has no shot of winning on the actual elected delegate count, and Dean has the power of the pursestrings in the Democratic Party. There will be no kneecapping, because when it comes to politics, money trumps both pain and partisanship.

Ultimately, this race will come down to Hillary being put on the spot by Dean -- and probably Edwards and Gore. They will make her a deal *she* can't refuse... either stand down and accept the fast track for the becoming first female Senate Majority Leader (or VP, if Obama so chooses) or have Dean, Edwards, Gore, etc. flip the remaining superdelegates for Obama.

A huge part of their motive for doing this is to not see the kind of BIG money that the Democrats are raising right now be thrown down a well during the preliminaries to the real election. They do not want another $50 million spent in an effort that delays party unification and exacerbates an already divided party. They want to see that kind of money go into the DNC coffers and into the winning candidate's warchest instead. They see the kind of money Obama and Hillary is making and dream of the entire country going blue... the Democratic version of the Reagan landslide. And frankly, given the huge fundraising disparity between McCain and Obama, you have to kind of agree with that it's a possibility.

So no... kneecapping won't do it. This time around, Ickes has no leverage where it really counts... and if Hillary Clinton screws the DNC on this deal, she'll be the next Joe Lieberman AND Ralph Nader, all rolled into one.

[timinhi]

I am a Hillary supporter. I don't buy your prediction. I will be happy, however, If you are right and I am wrong.

[ndolomar]

i, too, will be among those who understand the importance of maintaining a unified front in november. the problem that continuously beseiges democrats is that they're a little too scattered in their causes and their support. picture a college campus on may 5th with 20 different tables all for some separate cause (peta, women, aids, poor) -- but lacking a unifying theme (...as it applies to the latino community). everyone sometimes is just so caught up in trying to get their cause to the front of the line, that he/she ends up shooting the entire party in the foot. if all this infighting continues (and names being called -- although i suspect most instigators are republican trolls), we'll be doomed in november. and everyone will be blaming each other for president mccain. think about it: more war, even worse economy, dwindling rights, goodbye haebus corpus...

[Citizenofreality]

Nice try, as a fellow cynic don't you know that we're just optimists with bad attitudes? I don't lend much credence to your scenario, and if I don't it's not because I'm not intelligent enough to imagine it. But thanks for your effort anyway it compelled me to donate more money to the Obama campaign.

[Serfie]

Man oh Man.

You are going to send the Obama cult into an existential crisis with a submission like this.

[grendl]

I'm not a card carrying member of that cult. Nor do I support the Hillary contingent now hell bent on stealing this election.

And in a way I think she should try to, simply to shed light on the absurdity of the system. Otherwise superdelegates will be allowed to crawl the earth, subverters of democracy that they are, safely out of the public spotlight and scrutiny.

Its a pyrrhic victory she's planning evidently, destroying both her campaign and Barack's. she's clearly not the choice of the people, not the majority at least, and that's who makes the rules in democracy. But Hillary lovers have suddenly become Republicans in their desire to win at all costs.

They'll lose, and bring down this eloquent orator and voice of hope with them.

And if you think his cult is bad, you haven't been watching the GOP the last fifty years.

[maggieb]

You should be a stand-up comic!!!

[grendl]

Hillary's philosophy seems to be " Try as you might, you people can't keep me from getting back in the White House."

Which gives all new meaning to Mr. Obama's current mantra " Yes, We Can."

[DemandTruth]

I hope you're wrong. (damn me, I'm such a koolaide drinking hopemonger!)

But if you're right, I'll work as hard as I can to make sure Hillary wins the general. Despite what the Clinton supporters call an Obama supporter like me. Yes, despite the constant name calling and insults to my intelligence, I am smart enough to realize that Hillary would still be head & shoulders better than McCain. I will keep my Obama-inspired HOPE (oh, that dirty word!) that Clinton will not FAIL miserably on her promises like she did before on healthcare and her Senate promise of creating new jobs in NY. I will HOPE that the young people Obama has inspired to get involved will stay involved, and try to help the Democrats find and keep their spines in the Congress. Clinton says she's gonna fight for me. I will take her at her word, and HOPE (oh, damn my eyes!) her word doesn't turn out to be worth what Bill Clinton's word was worth re: NAFTA and "That Woman", or what Bush's word was worth on well, everything!

I, unlike many of my fellow Americans who happen to support Clinton right now, WON'T take my ball and go home in a huff if the will of the voters is hijacked by Clinton. I won't waste my vote on Nader or McCain. I only wish some of my fellow Democrats could say the same if/when Obama wins.

[TurnThePageGA]

If Hillary Wins this FAIR AND SQUARE I and my family will vote for her. But if she and Harold Ickes STEAL the nomination through superdelegates then I will bust my tale here in Georgia to make sure anybody I know VOTES AGAINST HER and Democrats. I will folow that to a state that the Democrats could have a chance of winning and take annual leave for a week in September and spend half of it in Broward Co. Florida and half of it in Duval and Baker Co. Florida making sure every relative, every "like relative, every friend, everyone I went to church with, every former school teacher, everyone I could remotely influence knows to either vote for McCain or doesnot Vote at all. I will take another week off in late October to follow up this Campaign against Hillary and the Democratic Party. I will lead a campaign to have every African American I know abandons the Democratic Party. Go ahead and try to STEAL THIS ELECTION Harold. I DARE YOU!!!

[Wishb0ne]

I have no idea if the bleak scenario painted by M. Kidman is likely or even plausible, but I hope not. Then again, I cannot fully appreciate the ego of anyone wanting to be president.

[LAJonathan]

YIkes, I believe it. Even if this happens, I absolutely don't think she would win in the end against McCain. Honestly I can't believe she thinks she can. I guess we'll see soon enough!

[Countess]

Hillary Clinton should run in the republican party as her heart is obviously with them on this war and the next one. She has been forced to change her position strictly for the primary elections because there are too many anti-war democrats.

[uscitizen]

I would hope for a fair process, no matter how it turns out. Let the people's will stand. We've had enough "appointments" to last this country for at least a generation. And shame on anyone who feels the way to win an election is to resort to threats. There will be a judgment day.

[YellerDawg]

Is this what is meant by damning someone with faint praise?

[GLU]

If this does happen, I will not vote for any Democrat this fall. Even if that means I will never be able to get married.