Texas Time

We've been waiting for y'all.

Like the great big kid in the back of the classroom who has gotten used to being overlooked, Texas has not had a chance to make a difference in the presidential primaries for decades. This year, suddenly, we're hot stuff. Our primary on March 4th is going to mean something -- maybe everything -- in the Democratic race.

And in a campaign where voters are already defying some of the old demographic breakdowns, Texas promises to give the pundits and campaign planners a run for their money, beginning with the most basic characterizations.

Texas is not the South. It is not the West. It is not the Southwest.

Texas is all those things, a heady blend of magnolia blossoms and masa harina; a place big enough and complicated enough to treasure both the Alamo and the dreams of millions whose lives began in Mexico. It has memorials to Civil War heroes and civil rights legends, border towns without running water and the latest thing from Barney's.

Texas is home to both big oil and big hair; sometimes to big, oily hair.

It is a warm, fun-loving, forgiving state, the kind of place where the vice-president can shoot someone in the face and the victim apologizes.

Clearly, it isn't easy to embarrass Texas. But it appears George W. Bush has finally done it. In a stark change from the public's attitude here a few years ago, now there are bumper stickers on family cars in grocery store parking lots that proclaim "Bush wasn't born here" and "George W. Bush is a failure."

The rest of the country may figuratively turn disgraced politicians into piñatas, but in Texas, the transformation is literal. In fact, a party store in Austin will custom-make a George W. Bush piñata for you for only 23 dollars. Don't ask how I know this.

For Republican candidates in Texas, the president's precipitous fall from favor has made a particularly big splat. In 2006, voters in Dallas rejected every contested Republican officeholder on the ballot.

And if the GOP primary turnout on March 4th is low, it will be due to a combination of this Bush fatigue and the fact that the race is, as usual for Texans, already decided. It won't be because Rush Limbaugh doesn't like the leading candidate or because Romney decided to take his wallet and go home. It's that this year is not much fun for former Bush voters. Many Texas Republicans are no longer enjoying the party.

For those who hang around and actually vote in the primary, Huckabee will be attractive. He is witty and engaging, relatively gentle on immigration and religious as hell. I don't want to be accused of hitting below the Bible Belt on this, but the creation of the earth is still a source of argument among some Texans. The ground here may have given up some of the world's best specimens of dinosaur fossils, but state school officials are still under siege by parents who believe that the earth is only a few thousand years old and that carbon dating means taking a girlfriend to the Texas A and M bonfire.

McCain will probably do better in Texas than in other conservative parts of the country. The very elements of McCain's candidacy and personality that have conservatives and the religious right so righteously peeved at him will actually play well for him here. Most Texans, including the Republican governor, don't want a wall separating us from Mexico. And any hothead who uses the "F" word not only won't be rejected, he is gonna fit right in.

While the state's favorite (step)son Ron Paul probably won't be much of a factor in the primary, many Texans feel a perverse pride in his success. Paul is a natural outgrowth of Texas's deep libertarian streak, the only person in the Republican party with the guts to stand on stage in every debate and in a nasal twang commit a kind of blasphemy by constantly and eloquently criticizing the war and the president who put us there.

The Democratic race is going to be more complicated and more unpredictable because both candidates have huge built-in constituencies, good organizations and giddy support. Texas Democrats are almost hysterical at the heart-pounding possibility that the rest of the country will at long last pay attention to what they think. In addition to all that, no one knows how the hell the delegate count is actually going to work.

In typical Texas contrarian fashion, the primary rules read like a DNA chart. On the Democratic side, 228 delegates are up for grabs. But it's not that simple.

The state has both a primary and a caucus -- on the same day. And you can't caucus unless you voted in the primary. On primary night, 126 delegates will be determined based on voting results in each Senate district.

The number of delegates in each district is based on how many Democrats voted in the last two general elections in that district. Got that? Well, there's more.

The selection of another 67 delegates will begin at the caucuses that night and culminate at the state convention in June. The remaining 35 delegates are some kind of unique political life form that will evolve into actual delegates at the National Convention later that summer.

With rules like this, we may not know the division of Texas delegates until sometime after the new President is sworn in. Now that the state finally has its moment in the spotlight, it appears we will slowly drag our rear ends across the stage and reveal our delegate counts only when we are good and ready.

But as Democratic campaign workers and organizers flood the state in the next few weeks, they will find a pool of voters ready to rumble. Texans are ready for their close-up.

The candidates are already familiar faces. Barack Obama has been here raising money and making friends since long before he announced his candidacy. Hillary Clinton actually lived in Austin in 1972 while working for George McGovern. She knows the state and has racked up an impressive series of endorsements.

Hillary seems to be ahead in early polling. Texans, despite the state's conservative reputation, have never had any discomfort with women taking the reins. Texas women have been changing the world for a long time.

That creates a special challenge for Hillary Clinton.

Down here, she will have to live with the ghosts of Barbara Jordan, Ann Richards, Molly Ivins and Lady Bird Johnson. She will have to prove to voters that she has more in common with these iconic Texas political figures than with Ma Ferguson, the state's first female governor. Ferguson took over in 1925, several years after her husband was run out of office.

Actually, Hillary Clinton is nothing like Ma Ferguson. They have nothing but body parts in common. Still, by making that comparison, I get the chance to use a hilarious quote attributed to Ferguson during a debate on the use of Spanish in Texas public schools. She exhorted the state to require English, saying, "If English was good enough for Jesus Christ, then it is good enough for the children of Texas."

Which brings up another point. Texans expect candidates to be entertaining. They can be funny like Ann Richards, a charming rogue like Charlie Wilson, or personable like George W. Bush used to be.

Obama has that -- and something more. For Texans old enough to remember, he recalls Barbara Jordan -- not because of race, but because of the power of the spoken word. Decades ago in her campaigns for Congress, in small towns and large cities, in front of crowds who gathered at courthouses and on street corners, she became a political legend by reminding people of why they loved their country. She led old men in sweat-stained cowboy hats to weep openly at the beauty of the Constitution, the power of the American people, the depth of our belief in our own inherent decency.

Texans are still like that. They still like good speeches. They still like to cry in public. And they will always love politics.

To win in Texas, Democrat or Republican, there is really only one rule. Don't be dull. We certainly won't.

Comments

[LiarLiarIraqsOnFire]

... Down here, she will have to live with the ghosts of Barbara Jordan, Ann Richards, Molly Ivins and Lady Bird Johnson.

Two years ago Molly Ivins wrote an article entitled I Will Not Support Hillary Clinton For President. It's even more relevant today! http://www.freepress.org/columns/display/1/2006/1304

[LiarLiarIraqsOnFire]

...it appears we will slowly drag our rear ends across the stage and reveal our delegate counts only when we are good and ready.

My cat used to do that: it's hairballs.

[LiarLiarIraqsOnFire]

... a party store in Austin will custom-make a George W. Bush piñata for you for only 23 dollars. Don't ask how I know this.

Does this store have a website? Do they ship? Do they offer volume discounts, or a Cinco de Mayo sale?

SERIOUSLY!

[lonestar609]

As a lifelong Democrat and lifelong Texan, I can't begin to tell you how disappointed I am with all the hatred and stereotyping going on here... from my fellow Democrats, no less.

Democrats won a lot of local Texas elections they weren't expected to win in 2006 (and were competitive in many that weren't expected to be competitive). If any Texans who have been making their way over to the light side read the comments here about what evil idiots we ALL are, who could blame them if they rushed back to the dark side.

[Dimikats]

Stereotyping? Sigh...it's called SATIRE. I'm a lifelong Democrat as well, although not a lifelong Texan (besides, I live in Austin, not Texas LOL), but I do consider myself a southerner and we're always the butt of someone's jokes. Mary's post is humorous and informative, something I always appreciate. And she knows how to spell y'all correctly! ;)

[vsign]

Notes from a Republican Party Dinner last night:

The Republican Party definitely wants to run against the Obama-nation, they
call it. They think they can win big against Obama (by 20 points) so that
the Democratic Party will never recover. They were hype-ing up their
members to make sure everyone just gets out to vote and to talk to their kids so they
don't get on the Obama train. With McCain, they expect to keep all the
independents from going Democratic.

Now with Hillary - the word they put out to party members is that she might
win in 2008, but the party could get it back in 2012.

[carefulcautious]

Great columm Mary. I wish you would go back to 60 Minutes and work there again to produce more reports like this one which is fair and reports both sides honestly. Thnk you for this chance to commment.

Obama/Edwards Si si pwada! Yes we can!

[PortiaElizabeth]

No puede ser.

[tsicby]

Uh, Texas doesn't have a primary (which are closed to registered Democrats). It's an open caucus. Since Obama seems to sweep these caucuses, I think this is a very strange point for you to overlook as a political analyst.

[PortiaElizabeth]

Don't preach to Texans about Texas politics. AS she sadi, Texas has a primary and then that evening caucuses.

[nolandalla]

For all those who continue to bash Texas and Texans as being too conservative, I will remind them that this is the stated that produced the likes of:

DAN RATHER
ANN RICHARDS
PAUL BEGALA
MOLLY IVINS
JOHN HIGHTOWER
WALTER CRONKITE
BILL MOYERS
BARBARA JORDAN

The most liberal president of the last 60 years was a Texan (LBJ). Note: Those who doubt how important LBJ was to the civil rights movement should read Robert Caro's masterful work on LBJ legislative career ("Master fo the Senate").

The woman who fought for seperation of church and state (MADELINE MURRY O'HAIR) did most of her work based in Austin.

Also, voters in Dallas, Houston, Austin, Fort Worth, El Paso, and San Antonio have all voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in recent elections. Conservatives win easily in rural and suburban areas. But urban areas match the numbers from other large cities around the country.

Anyone who makes monolistic comments about Texas or is residents is ridiculously naive.



-- ND

[Rog49Thomas]

First I'm shocked you omitted that Great American and Texan - Kinky Friedman.

A list admittedly of some very fine people.

But as to bashing Texans for being too conservative ... The State has I believe about 23.5 million people which would make it about 8% of the USA.

Since 1976 there have been 1099 executions in the USA, 405 in Texas - 37% of all executions. Next nearest state has 98.

One would have to conclude that
(a) there are a disproportionate share of violent dangerous criminals in the State or
(b) there is a particular violent attitude in the State among its citizens that leads to so many executions.

Either way Tejas does not come off smelling like a rose.

[Rog49Thomas]

Comparative report on Tejas vs the other 50 states.

As one can see from President Pan's performance, he's doing for the USA what Texas politicians have done for Tejas!

http://shapleigh.org/system/reporting_document/file/3/focus_documents3.pdf

Disclosure:

Shapleigh is a Democrat State Senator from ElPaso, but definitely not the guy in the Kinkster's song.

[julianne]

Is someone in Texas who is pulling 47 years in a labor camp on a pot charge ridiculously naieve? Here's another list:
Karl Rove
Alberto Gonzales
George W. Bush
Dick Cheney
Harriet Miers
Tom Delay
The entire Texas Supreme Court
The majority of theocratic monarchists in the Texas Legislature

[BatedBreath]

I'm missin' Molly.

[gtt]

BatedBreath,

Me too, what a wonderful gal Molly was. She was in the great tradition of Texas populists.

[tgood]

I hate to interrupt this Texas bashing with facts but somebody needs to. Since Texas is now credited with being the reason for George Bush being re-elected in 2004, please explain this.

Texas had 34 electoral votes. Bush won by 286.

These are the states that gave their electoral votes to Bush. Seems like Texas had a "little help" electing him.

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska
New Mexico
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas 34
Utah
Virginia
Wyoming

Total Electoral votes for Bush : 286

[wolfgangmo]

Facts? How about these?

Texas's own GWBush was elected by 1 vote [thank you Supremes] in 2000, and by God knows how many votes [thank you Diebold] in 2004.

Texas did elect him twice and over Anne Richards.

[LiarLiarIraqsOnFire]

Indiana has 9 electoral vote, and haven't gone Dem since Kennedy.

Bu$hCo STOLE Ohio in '04. Google Fitrakas & Wasserman for some of the best reported, MSM-ignored reporting since Watergate.

[Checquoline]

If I was from Texas I wouldn't admit it. Will somebody send someone down there to educate the people? Will somebody arrest Tom DeLay? Will somebody make Karl Rove shut up? Will somebody build that super highway around instead of across Texas and not let it cross state lines?

[tgood]

Be glad there is a Texas. Otherwise all the illegal aliens we're taking care of with our tax dollars would be your problem.

[PortiaElizabeth]

Texas still holds the right to secede, doesn't it? Then where would the critics be when they had to pay Texas those Saudi oil prices?

[Rottweiler]

Karl Rove, while not nearly as brilliant as he would have us believe, was wildly successful in one sinister endeavor.....his demented manipulation to turn us against each other. Let's outsmart "Bush's Brain" and reunite this divided house.

[Rog49Thomas]

Texas will decide the Democratic nomination?

Why don't I find that a comforting thought?

[onwatch]

Texas has not had a chance to influence the primaries?? The 2 presidents, in my lifetime, who have attacked other countries based on lies and without provocation are from Texas: George Bush and Lyndon Johnson. Perhaps Texas ought to rethink its priorities as an American state, or does it prefer to be the Lone Star and just spent other's money and honor?

[PortiaElizabeth]

George W. Bush was born in Connecticut, so blame them.
Lyndon Johnson didn't start the Vietnam war. I believe you can thank Ike for that.