Since announcing in June that he'd seek the Republican nomination for President in 2016, Donald Trump has dominated in both polls and media coverage. Polls indicate that after a myriad of controversial statements, including Trump's proposal that no Muslims be allowed to immigrate into the United States, he has maintained a large lead over his rivals nationwide.
The conventional wisdom of political pundits has often been that Trump will eventually fall under the weight of his own bluster and bombast. For months now, Republicans have waited for his campaign to implode. With just one month to go until the first voting contests begin, that simply hasn't happened.
It's time for the Republican Party to get serious about saving themselves from an unmitigated disaster.
Trump is a terrible nominee for Republicans in a general election. That has become abundantly clear as he's continued to alienate several voting blocs which are crucial to a viable campaign.
The GOP's biggest obstacle to overcoming the Trump phenomenon is that they simply haven't identified their alternative candidate. No single establishment candidate that could actually compete in a general election has emerged.
In Iowa, where the first contest will be held on February 1st, Senator Ted Cruz has begun to post small leads over Trump in polls. Although this may seem like good news for Republicans, the fact is that Cruz is one of the most extreme candidates in the race. He'd be nearly as damaging for Republicans as Trump in a hypothetical matchup with Hillary Clinton.
No other candidate even comes close to Trump in Iowa, with Senator Marco Rubio, who posts the best general election poll numbers, at a distant third and other candidates running in single digits. It has also been reported that many Iowans and Republican insiders seriously question Rubio's campaign infrastructure in Iowa. He only has one office in the state and has made fewer visits there than other candidates.
The next contest after Iowa will be New Hampshire. Here's where Republicans have their best chance to stop Trump. This might seem like an unusual assertion considering that Trump is currently leading heavily in New Hampshire, whereas he is narrowly losing in Iowa.
What makes New Hampshire ground zero in the Republican establishment's battle to keep Trump from being their nominee, is that Trump's total support there is less than that of the combined total of establishment contenders' support in that state.
Currently, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Marco Rubio have a combined total of about 40% to Trump's 28%. Hypothetically, should two or three of these candidate drop out and perhaps even endorse one of the others, it might allow more moderate, establishment republican voters to coalesce behind one anti-Trump candidate.
Add this to a possible Trump loss in Iowa to Cruz, who will likely eat up some of Trump's support in New Hampshire as part of a polling bounce should he win the first contest and Trump could be left without a victory in the first two primaries.
The problem for Republicans is that this requires an unprecedented amount of discipline on part of the aforementioned establishment candidates, who currently maintain substantial support in New Hampshire.
Christie, Bush and Kasich have all completely invested their campaigns in New Hampshire, seeing a win there as their only chance to gain momentum heading into the Super Tuesday primaries. It seems unlikely that any of them would drop out before the one contest where they have any shot at gaining momentum.
It's also not clear who exactly these candidates would endorse if they did drop out. Marco Rubio seems like the most logical choice, considering his strength in the general election but he's currently only polling about as well as Christie in New Hampshire, and the aforementioned concerns with his lack of a ground operation make it unclear if he really is the establishment frontrunner at this stage.
It seems all but inevitable that if Republicans continue to split their support between various alternatives to Trump, it will result in him winning at least one of the first two contests. A Trump victory in an early contest will likely give him the momentum he needs to stay in the race well into the spring, and possibly even become the nominee. That simply cannot happen if the Republican Party wants to win in 2016.
As always, the first contests in Iowa and New Hampshire will shape the remainder of the primary season. As it stands, that could mean an utter disaster if Trump wins one of the contests, or a deep sigh of relief for Republicans everywhere if he loses both. In order to make the latter scenario happen, The Republican establishment needs to coalesce around a candidate soon, or risk political annihilation.