Remember that pizza pie chart teachers used to teach you about fractions and percents in elementary school? Well here's an in depth look at how much of that pizza each Republican presidential candidate gets if the entire pie is a chance to be the party's nominee in 2016.
1. Donald Trump (30%). If Trump wins Iowa, he's almost certain to win the nomination. It is officially too late to keep thinking he'll implode by going too far with one of his inflammatory comments. The fact is that in 2016, the Republican Party is in disarray as Trump threatens to upend their primary and possibly even win it.
Trump can still win the nomination if he loses Iowa by rebounding in New Hampshire and South Carolina in the following weeks, but he'd have to battle Ted Cruz and possibly other candidates through at least Super Tuesday. That said, it's a testament to Trump's dominance that even if he loses Iowa, he'll likely continue campaigning through the spring.
Trump has many paths to victory, which is more than any other contender can say at this point. I rate his overall likelihood to win the nomination at 30% for now, I'll double that number to 60% if he wins the Iowa Caucus Monday night. A win there gives him increased momentum as he heads to the remaining states where he currently holds commanding leads. It also suffocates the candidacy of Trumps chief rival, Senator Ted Cruz.
2. Ted Cruz (25%). Essentially, Iowa is a must win for Cruz. If he loses Monday night, it will be extremely disappointing to his supporters and likely depress their enthusiasm heading forward. Cruz has built strong support among social conservatives and evangelical Christians who typically rule the Iowa Caucus. The rationale for his campaign will fade if he loses there.
He would have a very small chance to rebound on super Tuesday with a win with in his home state of Texas and possibly some other deep southern states. By that point however, Trump will have likely swept the first 4 contests In February and a Cruz comeback would be quite impressive.
Of course, if Cruz wins Iowa that could set him on a path to the nomination. It would give him momentum in New Hampshire where he could place a strong second or even win with a good enough debate performance in between combined with his undeniably robust ground game. In short, no one has more at stake than Cruz on Monday. I rate his current chances at 25% to win the nomination. If he wins Iowa that goes up to 40%, if he loses I'll drop it to 10.
3. Marco Rubio (25%) Rubio's questionable strategy of trying to gain broad national support while skipping the development of a large-scale ground game like that of Ted Cruz is a highly questionable one. He has no obvious early state win and his home state of Florida doesn't vote until the middle of March. So why would I still rate his chances of winning at 25%?
The answer is simple. If the Republican Establishment does ultimately decide to rally around one candidate, it will almost certainly be Rubio. I've said from the very beginning that he is a dream candidate thanks his youth, oratorical skills and positive message. The problem with this theory is that if the Republican establishment wanted to rally around Rubio, they likely would have done it by now.
Rubio will get a boost from a strong third place showing in Iowa followed by a second or third place showing ahead of John Kasich, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie in New Hampshire. The latter electoral feat will eliminate the other establishment contenders and allow Rubio to consolidate the moderate vote. If he doesn't accomplish both of these still highly reachable electoral goals in the early states, his chances will drop precipitously.
4. John Kasich (10%). If the Republican establishment is feeling unsure about rallying behind Rubio, then they really ought to back John Kasich. The Ohio Governor would be all but certain to win his crucial home state in a general election and has the kind of moderate profile and real legislative accomplishments that makes true general election contenders.
So why is he ranked fourth with just a 10% chance of winning the nomination? Frankly, if he doesn't place in the top three (and ahead of Rubio) in New Hampshire, where he has invested the entirety of his campaign resources, he's out of the race. There is one narrow albeit still existent path for Kasich. New Hampshire is do or die for his campaign.
5. Jeb Bush (7%). Bush's prospects are similar to Kasich, but with slightly worse poll numbers and a less appealing general election resume. At this stage in the race, he's essentially a poor man's Kasich with less stature in his own swingy home state of Florida and worse poll numbers. He continues to utilize substantial resources in New Hampshire however, giving him an edge over our last contender.
6. Chris Christie (3%). If Bush is a poor man's Kasich than Christie is a poor man's Bush (effectively making him a poor man's poor man). He has less resources than Bush and less general election appeal than Kasich.
He does has one thing neither of them have and that's a chance to really kill it at the remaining debates. Most agree that Christie is a strong debater and Thursday night's Trumpless Fox News debate was a chance for him to pull some media coverage from the similarly blustery real estate mogul. If he finishes top three in New Hampshire ahead of Bush, Kasich and Rubio, he just might swing into a massive comeback. Barring that unlikely result, he's toast.
7. Everyone else (0%). If your name isn't on this list, you're not going to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016.