The question comes up in almost every conversation I have these days: "So, you think Rauner or Madigan will win this budget fight?"
My answer is consistent: House Speaker Michael Madigan won these fights for 30 years with five previous governors. There's no reason to believe it'll be different with the sixth.
But it's not just Madigan's political acumen and experience that give him the edge. Gov. Bruce Rauner has set his own bar for "victory" so high that he appears intent on rejecting small wins in favor of big defeats.
His approach to the state budget, in which he won't engage in negotiations with Democrats until after they embrace his reform ideas, is a perfect example.
In refusing to sit down with Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton until they meet his conditions, Rauner overlooks the power he wields simply by being at the negotiating table. Not since 2012 has a Republican governor had a direct say in the give-and-take of creating a state spending plan.
Yes, the Democrats want Rauner to help them raise taxes to close a gap that Rauner estimates is $4 billion. But it'll also require lots of cuts -- $2 billion if the two sides are to meet halfway -- and that's where Rauner can wield his strength. (And it must be noted that Rauner's own budget proposal was $2 billion out of balance and contained cuts that might reasonably be described as cruel.)
One quick example: Almost from the minute a major Medicaid reform bill was signed into law in 2012, Republicans have complained that there is vast untapped savings still to be had. Specifically, they say the firm hired to root out fraud was chased off by unions via their Democratic friends in the Legislature.
Democrats have said that's nonsense. If Rauner's at the table negotiating with Madigan and Cullerton, he's in a perfect spot to make them prove it. Doing so would be a significant win.
Read the rest at Reboot Illinois to see what other factors play into the epic Madigan-Rauner face off.
Madigan and his fellow Democratic representatives passed a temporary budget, which they then sent to the Senate. Senate President John Cullerton and Senate Democrats were able to also get enough votes to send the 30-day emergency provision to Rauner's desk, but Mark Fitton of the Illinois News Network reports that Rauner is unlikely even to consider signing the bill into law. The state will remain without a budget for the foreseeable future, temporary or otherwise.
