Do you want a road map to the general election for Mitt Romney and President Obama? Think amusement parks and summer fun -- and specifically think Disney World, Cedar Point, and Kings Dominion.
There are many important geographic areas in this election, and many key demographic groups that will be crucial in deciding this presidential race. Many issues will be discussed. No one of them will be the deciding factor. But if we try to whittle this down to a key narrative arc, then we arrive at roller coasters, cotton candy, and fun children's shows this summer.
Working women with children will likely be the most important group that Mitt Romney must focus on in the coming months. These middle-class women, who continue to struggle economically and emotionally, are looking for the candidate who best speaks to their hopes, hearts, and dreams. They carry with them the anxieties that go with raising healthy, decent children and paying bills while finding some leisure time along the way. They have suffered through this modern economy. Though they see some positive signs, they aren't yet convinced. And they don't really want this election to be about contraception or abortion or some other social issue. They don't want the right telling them about family values, and they don't want the left using them as some pawn in a constructed "war on women."
Romney absolutely has to win three states to win the presidency -- Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. He cannot win without capturing all three. His campaign understands that, and so does President Obama's. If the Obama campaign can pick off one of these states, the election is over.
That brings us to Sandusky, Ohio, home of the Cedar Point amusement park; Orlando, Fla., site of Disney World; and outside Richmond, Va., where Kings Dominion is located. Many of these women will be taking their kids to these parks this summer, having saved a little money for a day or two or three of fun. These are women who would like to be soccer moms, but just don't have the time in their schedules to get to games. Or they are so tired after a long day or week of work, errands, and carpooling that they just want to sleep or watch TV.
Right now, Obama is doing well with this group, and that's why he has a slight lead in the national polls. But these women aren't locked into their choice yet, because they are not fully convinced the president has the right vision or plan to lead us forth. They want to believe, but they just don't trust it. As in their personal lives, these women have been promised many things by political leaders who haven't delivered or who have broken their word. This leaves Romney an opening, but he can't win this group with more promises or great speeches or becoming something he thinks they want. They want a strong leader who is sure of himself, and who also understands what they are going through both in the economy and in their homes and lives. And they want a leader who is compassionate enough to not always pick a fight, whether it's abroad with a potential enemy or at home with an opposing political party.
The path to victory for Romney this fall goes through the amusement parks in these three locations. The women lined up outside the gates holding a kid in each arm are looking for a leader whom they can trust and who can convince them that they know the destination of this country as well as how to get us there together as a family.
Cross-posted from National Journal.
Follow Matthew Dowd on Twitter: www.twitter.com/matthewjdowd
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 |
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| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral Votes (270 to win) |
332 | 206 |
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 65,899,660 | 60,932,152 |
| Percent | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| Democrats* | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Senate | 53 | 47 |
| Seats gained or lost | +2 | -2 |
| New Total | 55 | 45 |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Seats won | 201 | 234 |
Because women are the majority gender, they are a valued voting power.
What must be acknowledged is that their alleged (by Mr. Dowd) need for simplicity does not automatically imply that they can be duped by either Mr. Roman (who wants to be Caesar) or an Impotent President (whose promised hopes & changes evaporated).
Altho woman pivot upon an emotional (feel good) platform for most functions in their daily existence, they do have an instinct for sound judgment based on logical thought processes. And it is this women's instinct that will focus on policies which affect their freedoms to pursue happiness.
Which Party Policies will restrict her freedoms the most. It is that Party that must be required to do Solitary Confinement, so that she can pursue prosperity for her family.
The RepubliCons have proven their destructive platform for the past four years. And now to add frosting to that burnt cake is Con-gross-Man's Ryan's budget plan which eliminates all enrichment programs for all Americans.
Yes, Nov. 2012 is a critical opportunity to vote for the Have Nots. But that can only happen by not voting for the 1% Gold Club PosterBoy.
If women fall for it, I despair. Or maybe I should run too, since people will believe anything. Oh, wait, I'm bald. That will never work.
Save your, "'they must be small minded' comments". They are all college grads.
There is no war.
Stockholm Syndrome?
There have been over 1000 bills taken up by legislatures that negatively affect women's rights in the last year, and over 100 have been enacted. This is a real assault on women, by the party that DOES bleat on about "family values" (while working to hurt working families).
This is another example of false equivalency - a beltway writer who has to call it even between both sides, regardless of reality.
As a woman, that makes me feel like the Republicans think I am stupid. They think I am stupid because I need to be told how to deal with my internal organs and I am stupid because I'm not supposed to see that they keep making laws about my internal organs. I don't want the government, my employer, or anyone else talking about my parts. If the Romney wants to win, he has to tell the rest of the R party to stop bringing it up.
Further, they want you to be subservient (just look at every single piece of legislation they have ever pushed that affects you), and are mifffed that you aren't very...
P.S. As best I can tell, what with the vaginal probing laws(!) and the recent ruling on strip searches by the Gang of Five, they have a real problem with prurience. Looks to me as if they want to inspect womens' internals at every opportunity.
Unless you work hard to get a LOT more Democrats elected to Congress and state legislatures to turn back some of these laws, you had better expect to have both your primary and secondary sex characteristics under constant scrutiny by the right...
Women are the majority in this country. You need to start using that advantage to your advantage.