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Matthew Dowd

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GOP Campaign Health Assessment: Perry In Serious Jeopardy

Posted: 10/17/11 10:10 AM ET

As the Republican candidates for president go from one debate in New Hampshire to another in Las Vegas, and along the way continue to bash President Obama's health care reform, it's a good time to do a candidate health diagnosis and see where things are.

Let's take a look at some of the candidates running for president and do a health assessment on where their campaigns and candidacies stand, and in what shape they are in, and what their prospects for continued health are. We have enough data points from tests and procedures done in this campaign, including debates, performance on the trail, and fundraising.

Rick Perry

His candidacy is in serious jeopardy even though he can afford to pay for the best doctors and check himself into the most prestigious clinics in the country. He seemed when he first got in to be in perfect health and his history seemed to show he had the best ability to rise to the occasion in this race. But the debates showed him to be a flawed candidate, and he inflicted wounds upon himself by poor performances that will be tough to recover from. The question remains whether his defect was congenital and whether it happened to surface under the stress of a presidential race.

Herman Cain

He is a very unlikely leading candidate for president at this point who has tremendous momentum and movement upon the political landscape. He seems to me to be somebody who was wandering through the emergency ward and was mistaken for a serious player, and a doctor gave him a tremendous adrenalin shot. Will he burn out and will the body of his candidacy and campaign structure survive this jolt? This question will be answered soon enough.

Mitt Romney

His candidacy seems to be in decent shape, has passed all its tests, and continues to perform well through the election cycle, but for some reason doesn't get the love of the doctors, nurses, and staff of this process. They seem reluctant to give him a clean bill of health and allow him to enter the big general election game because they are worried that his "gut" may be compromised. In the end, if the other candidates fall away, he will be given the go despite those doubts.

Michele Bachmann

Her campaign seems to be on its last legs. Early on, it seemed she was in it for the long haul, and had great possibility, but she just didn't have all the elements needed to survive. Her last chance is a hope and prayer that by spending all her time in a regional clinic in Iowa she will get the go-ahead and be able to move on to be judged healthy by other parts of the country. It just may be the diagnosis is terminal for her and we may have to wait for that Iowa clinic to give the final say on what many already believe.

Newt Gingrich

His candidacy was given up for dead months ago, but he has gotten some transfusions and benefited from the failed health of other candidates to give himself an outside possibility of surviving. He doesn't have the resources other campaigns have, but he performs well at the high-level events of this campaign. He just may be the next candidate to rise and claim the large free f-oating anti-Romney vote that has moved from candidate to candidate if Cain doesn't survive his adrenalin shot.

Ron Paul

He is a doctor himself and doesn't seem to care if the other health professionals in the process judge him unfit. He will continue to be a player in this process, but the health prospects of his candidacy are that while he will likely give himself a clean bill of health, the voters will not. He is in it for the long haul, but will not make it to the big game next November.

Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum

These two are Bruce Willis in the Sixth Sense. They are dead; they just don't know it yet. Huntsman seems more cognizant that something is off and looks to be realistic, but Santorum, I think, still sees dead people.

On to Vegas, with hope and expectations one of these candidates will rise to the occasion and finally take control in this race, but my guess is that many Republicans will again leave feeling only fear and loathing.

This post originally appeared at National Journal.

 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
alafonse
It's definitely a crap-shoot.
08:27 AM on 10/18/2011
The republican problem won't be solved— they will never find a candidate who can walk on water.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Adam of CA
Independent Information Hunter
02:30 PM on 10/17/2011
Doc Dowd has made the rounds at the Republican Presidential Clinic, and confirms that all the candidates are far too ill to be taken seriously.
What should be taken seriously is that each candidate shares the common symptom of self-inflicted wounds. Let me verify only the critical injuries.

Each time Perry speaks, the disconnect from his empty brain to his speech is obvious. He is a man speaking simple childish thoughts.
This injury resulted from never using the years at TX A&M Univ. to learn any subject ... a D average student.

Cain's serious injury is lack of depth perception. But when you spend a lifetime focused on a flat pizza, the world seems flat and simple.
Everything in Cain's world looks the same; everything is a nine. He'd go into immediate shock if he ever took a real class in mathematics which defines the universe in more than one number.

Romney appears normal, but his long history of public speaking has proven that he has multiple personalities, aka Flip Flop Fake.
This identity crisis comes from seeking the approval of others at each gathering. Because every group had different values, he lacks any core integrity for his own personal values. Thus, Romney appears to be an actor playing the leading man in every different value rally.

With these three diagnoses, someone please lock the doors of this clinic shut.
marilyn 63
LEVEL ONE NETWORKER
04:23 PM on 10/17/2011
your diagnosis is a definate smart badge. really on point.
01:16 PM on 10/17/2011
I think that good ole Newt just might be the anti-Romney candidate that survives and fights to the end. Cain putting out an actual plan to be picked apart is a tactic that will cut both ways and swiftly send him to the dustbin of presidental election trivia. It really would be a kick to see Gingrich have to explain to Obama's face in a debate how he's a Kenyan anti-collonialist.
marilyn 63
LEVEL ONE NETWORKER
04:25 PM on 10/17/2011
yeah i would love that with us black people wondering HEY NEWT? SUCKER WHAT YA TRYING TO SAY?
01:08 PM on 10/17/2011
Rick Perry seems to have made the worst first impression imaginable for a candidate. The bad news: you never get to make another first impression. The good news: it's still early and many people aren't paying attention yet. Rick Perry still has a chance to improve, and he does have several assets in his corner: he has a very good team, he has raised good money, and he has the best commercials, maybe ever. http://bit.ly/mTVVnE
marilyn 63
LEVEL ONE NETWORKER
04:26 PM on 10/17/2011
you're way way to king to Perry.
marilyn 63
LEVEL ONE NETWORKER
04:27 PM on 10/17/2011
sorry i meant kind LOL!!
12:10 PM on 10/17/2011
Fluffy analysis for a piece claiming to use data points.
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ChiBloger
And the truth shall set us ALL free
11:58 AM on 10/17/2011
Oh, way too kind to this pack of losers. “Fear and loathing†are two words that best describe this field from the center and the left of the country. The fear has to do with the staggering inadequacy that describes 90% of this offering.

The two guys that may have a chance in a general election to pick up votes across the political aisle inspire more towards the loathing. Romney for his 20 year history of flip flopping that can be easily brought up on electronically stored media. Huntsmann for his past work with the current president and for his tendency to speak to a rational audience. An interesting thing about both is that both these Republicans are loathed for their religious affiliation with the Church of LDS.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
scooter1
Bias is irrelevant to truth
11:51 AM on 10/17/2011
Its an interesting political dynamic because the party is split into two segments: establishment repubs and tea party/ultra right wingers. Romney has the establishment because they both think he's got the best chance of winning and he's not a loon. The other half of the party isn't as electable precisely because they harbor the most radical agenda i've ever seen with gigantic tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans and subsequent tax INCREASES on the lower and middle income falimiles. Its hard to beleive that they have convinced a portion of the population that increasing their taxes is a good idea because they need to give a tax break to the wealthy. But thats their position and its exactly what you here on their talk radio shows.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
workinguy
When Republicans Win You Lose
11:45 AM on 10/17/2011
Romney was and is the anointed one. The 'blue-blood" GOP aristocracy wants him in there badly. They know he'll do anything WS wants and he'll continue the stealing and spending that Cheney / Bush started for filling the GOP coffers. More importantly, he'll certainly keep the Supreme Court corporatist.
Also, they like him because A) he looks more electable to the general public and B) he'll keep the Kleptocracy growing and will do it with more stealth and less public mistakes the other candidates.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Sieggy
A renaissance man in a post-modern world
11:30 AM on 10/17/2011
The impression I keep getting is that the GOP really wants anyone BUT Romney, but knows they're going to get stuck with him no matter what. The enthusiasm each new entrant has generated and the disappointment when each has tanked has been rather sad to watch. The right wants a firebrand, someone sexy who can say outrageous things that will both annoy the liberals and give their Fox handlers something to rage upon. But each incendiary has gone up in smoke, and they're left with plain ol' boring Mitch Romney who just keeps on saying dull, sensible things and insists on being, well, reasonable. Well, to them, anyway. What's a Tea Party Revolutionary to do when their revolution turns into a tea party . . ?

The fact that he's not crazy actually counts against him in the current climate. And if he were to even TRY to act crazy, everyone would know he was just acting . . . I (almost) feel sorry for them. All that anger, all that rage, all that angst, and who are they going to have to back? Good ol' Charlie Brown . . .

Ah, the irony, you could almost bottle and sell it.
DianneinCA
running forward, laughing...
12:22 PM on 10/17/2011
Insightful, well said post, Sieggy. Thank you.

Fanned and faved
09:31 AM on 10/17/2011
Cutesy, but pointless. Romney will be the nominee, for the simple reason there is no one else remotely credible. Also, the Wall Street country club aristocrats that truly run the Republican party have anointed him. The rest of this debate & primary nonsense is all a kabuki show.
argved
Less socialism (for the wealthy)
12:32 PM on 10/17/2011
Isn't being "remotely credible" and a being republican presidential contender contradictory.