Obama's Race to Lose; Pressure Points on Palin

One debate down, two presidential debates and one vice presidential to go, so let's take a look at the landscape.

By nearly all accounts, Obama won the first debate, even though it wasn't overwhelming, but it will serve to give Obama a slight bump in the polls (which it already has) and solidify his single digit lead.

Since the debate, Obama is ahead pretty consistently by four to six points. And this lead is significant for a couple reasons.

First, as I have written previously, the equilibrium of this race seems to be Obama with a slight lead and this will soon begin to lock in. And with early voting starting soon in some states, every day Obama holds a lead means votes in the can.

Second, as best I can tell, no one running for president since 1976 who has held a consistent lead after the first debate has ever lost. Strange things can happen, but McCain will have to surprise many if he comes back at this point.

So what happens next?

All the pressure is on Sarah Palin for the vice presidential debate. She goes in with many voters concerned about her answers to media questions over the last week or so. A significant number of Americans do not believe she is qualified to be president. And concern and infighting is beginning to surface among Republicans about her performance.

In fact, many Republicans are saying the problem is that the McCain campaign needs to "let Palin be Palin". (Hmmm, I remember well many folks saying that about Bush after some mistakes in his campaigns, and thinking, well, sometimes we didn't want Bush to be Bush.)

This kind of statement by Republicans encourages me to add another rule to some rules I have come up with which are tell-tale signs a campaign is in trouble.

Rule One: When a campaign starts attacking the media, things aren't going well.

Rule Two: When a campaign says the polls are wrong, things aren't very good.

Rule Three: When a campaign says "the only poll that counts is the one on election day" usually means a campaign is about to lose.

Now we could probably add a new one: when partisans start saying let the candidate be the candidate, it means things are off course.

What will McCain and Palin do at this point? My guess is the campaign will encourage Palin to make some off the wall accusations at the debate in order to get under Biden's skin, and hope he makes a mistake by engaging her too passionately.

Or maybe McCain will fly to Afghanistan and look for Osama Bin Laden himself. You just never know.

At this point, this race is Obama's to lose, and absent a significant mistake it will be tough for McCain to win. McCain's destiny is no longer in his hands. Though in a strange election, strange things can happen.

Originally Posted on ABCNews.com

Comments

[condieshoes]

They will probably go after Biden for the supposed plagerism of a speech when he ran for President in in the 80's . There was a recent article about that in the Economist about two issues ago. Rove has hand picked some targets. In the article in the Economist, mentioned that Joe had compared himsefl and had adapted the story of a Scot who was running for office that was considered a "windbag" .....Rove about a month ago called Biden a "windbag"

That to me was a signal where the attack was going to come from. Biden's response to Rove was great he called Rove "a great American"....har har.

Now Joe, you had better be prepared and have an answer or a non-response to this jab that will only be to get under your skin. Remember the lipstick on a pit bull statement?

[ckt]

Wow, if McCain would take off for Afghanistan to hunt down Bin Laden (or for any other reason), I would make a contribution to his (one-way) airfare. I hear Afghanistan is lovely this time of year. Do ya' think we can get him to go?

[justobserve]

Since McCain had said he knew how to catch Bin Laden, he is sure to go to Afghan to catch him to rescue his campaign. Personally I am still unsure of Obama's leadings in PA, IN, OH as the new polls showed. DON'T GAMBLE YOUR COUNTRY WITH McCAIN-PALIN'S RECKLESS JUDGMENT, LIES, BIGOTRY, FAKE FAMILY VALUES, SECRECY, CRONYISM.

[JRsNana]

There are already several states doing early voting.
Also, we cannot underestimate (and I'm surprised you didn't bring it up Matthew) the ability and capability of the GOP to outright steal elections.
Barack needs a huge number of votes to be able to just simply overwhelm the "undervote", the now-infamous "hanging chad", the already calibrated for a GOP win voting machines, the voter caging, the threats and intimidation of college students, people in foreclosure not being allowed to vote, and on and on.
Hopefully, with a few (very few) people going to jail for some of these crimes, people will think twice.
But that would require common sense and that's where it gets dicey.

[felixxx999]

you are correct sir. Do not underestimate the R's ability to steal the election. BO has to win by a landslide... or McCain will snatch it up.

[Bitsko]

How sad that a candidate's campaign hinges on the performance of their running mate in a debate. I agree that Palin will be encouraged/prodded to make an outlandish statement to get on Biden's nerves, but if she does she will come off as obnoxious and trite. I have no idea what they'll try, being that they are so desperate, but at the poor woman has become a national laughingstock and anything she does will probably turn to her disadvantage.

I only feel sorry for McCain, having two more debates coming up.

[wrylass]

Wrt rule 3 ... that could be what they say when they are planning to steal an election ...

I actually agree that the polls are wrong ... I think they significantly understate Obama's support. Most of them are conducted using land lines only. People with cell phones and no land line will be 1 in 5 by next year. I suspect those people are young and minorities--i.e., Obama's base.

And of course they don't account for newly registered voters, of whom there are many.

[ProudLiberalDemocrat]

Most pollsters suggest in a 2%-3% underreporting because of cellphones...but I think Obama's youth support makes it more like 3%-5%....just a guess.....

[PumaAnn]

That old adage about attacking the media worked when the media pretended to be neutral. This year?

Not a chance.