An increasing number of voices in the media and political classes are crowning Mitt Romney as the inevitable Republican nominee. As I wrote in my column earlier this week, although I believe that he has best odds today of winning the whole thing and is likely to do so, he is not inevitable.
Here are five reasons why we should be very cautious in getting too far out front of the voters:
1.) So far in the six months of this campaign, we have had six different front runners (some brief and some lasting a little longer). This nomination process has been the most topsy-turvy in modern times, and I expect we will have some more twists and turns ahead.
2.) In the last few open races for the GOP presidential nomination, voters have shown great reluctance to anoint someone too quickly and have put up various road bumps along the way. In 2000, George W. Bush came back after losing the New Hampshire primary and won in South Carolina; everyone thought he was on the path to victory, but he lost the Michigan primary three days later. In 2008, John McCain won New Hampshire and then a week later lost in Michigan to Romney.
3.) Romney has not come under a concerted and sustained negative attack by any candidate yet. Other contenders have had to endure such onslaughts, but Romney has avoided being targeted. This will happen at some point very soon, and it will test him and his campaign.
4.) Up until Tuesday's Iowa caucuses, Romney has shown no capacity over the course of this campaign to increase his support above 30 percent outside of New Hampshire. That will become more and more of a problem as voters winnow the field to only a few candidates. Romney must show at some point after New Hampshire that he can win a much larger share of the vote in places like South Carolina or Florida and beyond -- a big challenge for him.
5.) Republican voters have shown a great desire for a candidate who is competent/electable/can be seen as a credible commander-in-chief, as well as authentic in their beliefs and a true conservative. Romney has the first half of this covered, but he remains very vulnerable on the authenticity question. An opposing candidate could still take advantage of this vulnerability.
Again, Romney is definitely the candidate to beat in this race, but let's let this process play out for a while. So far, we have seen more twists and turns in this race than in a California yoga class.
Cross-posted from National Journal.
Michael Russnow: The Iowa Caucuses, What Do They Prove? Shakespeare Was Right About The Masses
Rob Richie: Understanding How the Iowa Caucuses Work - and Don't Work
Ground game key to Mitt Romney's New Hampshire advantage
Romney's Stump Speech Evolved Over Time
Romney's religion still a sticking point
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Romney's Illinois team files to secure place on primary ballot
Another fact is that the top three vote winners in an Iowa Caucus seldom become the Republican nominee. So the implication that Gov. Romney is a weak candidate is true, because support for him has remained at a permanent 25% .
With the remaining Primaries in Jan. far more Republicans (Iowa only allowed 10% of the voters to participate in its caucus) can now express an alternative choice who is not an evangelical social conservative (Sen. Sentorum is its Poster Boy).
Gov. Jon Huntsman is the dark horse, once Mr. GetRich is removed from the Southern political arena.
There is not a single candidate in the current GOP lineup who meets this very low threshold.
If that one group wasn't late (the doors got locked at 7), Santorum would have tied Romney.
He was on MPR this morning (we live stream it at work in NYC) blabbing some nonsense about transparency. If you can, listen to it.
Coleman makes absolutely no sense in his statement. He does his best lawyerly dodge of the question posed about voters wanting to know who pays for these negative ads.
Apparently Norm likes transparency, he just doesn't feel responsible for providing any.
Money is the problem, just ask Newt, because he doesn't have enough to play with the big dogs.
You're welcome.
This year's crowd's only marginally worse, and includes Romney and Hunstman who would beat any of the 2000 in terms of making sense.
It will be interesting to see how Ron Paul's message has been received in South Carolina. Santorum must win South Carolina - if he can't win the Deep South he's a goner.
Santorum. Holy crap, I can't believe I just typed that name in reference to the GOP presidential nomination. Obama's the luckiest guy on the planet.
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While the entertainment factor of this group has been high, the whole circus has also been an embarrassment. I would have preferred a higher-quality campaign in general.
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I think the country will be shocked at the candor that Obama has after his next term begins. Many of the issues brought out by Occupy Wallstreet, the Tea Party, and in the debt debates ...etc will be dealt with without the fear of re-election to worry about.
Santorum had one mini-van of senior citizens less than Romney.
Embarrassing.
Gary Johnson says he's going to run for President on the libertarian ticket. If Ron Paul doesn't win the primary what does that mean for him? Would there be a primary for libertarians? Just asking.
The Liberatarians DO have a Primary, but it is a One-Day event if I remember it.
They always broadcast it on CSPAN
Ron Paul has stated pretty clearly that he wouldn't go to a 3rd Party.
IF HE DID GO TO ANY 3RD PARTY, it would guarantee a landslide for Obama.
He is not running concurrently for his existing House seat.
Some pundits have suggested that if he did go 3rd party, and hurt the Party in the upcoming election, that the Republicans would retaliate against his son, Rand Paul US Senator .
FOR MORE INFOR START HERE
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertarian_National_Convention
Paul is a dog and pony show that offers another flavor of Right wing. But certain views that the establishment corporate money people within the Party can not abide. He could do no worst.
I count myself as one of the few Obama supporters that would consider Mr. Johnson for President.
A Californian.
Fluid Hot,
Yoga Class.
In the Nude.