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Our Plan Has Not Worked in Afghanistan

Posted: 06/22/11 09:46 AM ET

As he was announcing his second increase in troops for Afghanistan in December 2009, President Obama promised that by July 2011 those troops would begin coming home. As relayed by Bob Woodward's book, Obama's Wars, we know the president was skeptical about the United States' war effort in Afghanistan. Now, as we review the results of that policy, we find his skepticism justified and his call for a drawdown prescient.

President Obama announced his first surge of 20,000 troops in spring 2009. Pushing American forces well above the 50,000 mark and reinforcing a counterinsurgency campaign, he escalated a war entering its fourth decade for the Afghan people.

Thousands of Marines and soldiers were rushed in, with the announcement that they were there to ensure free and fair Afghan elections. That summer, these troops found an insurgency fueled by resentment of their presence. Either because of hostility to foreign occupation or because our troops simply sided with someone else's rival, akin to supporting just one side in a Hatfield-McCoy feud, 2009 became the deadliest year of the war, doubling the amount of American dead in 2008.

Meanwhile, the fire hydrant-like stream of dollars, being pumped into the second most corrupt nation in the world , seemed to purchase only further grievances among the population against a government radiantly kleptokratic. When President Hamid Karzai blatantly stole the elections in August, American officials were forced to abandon any narrative of Americans fighting and dying for democracy in Afghanistan. Then, in October, the president's National Security Advisor, Jim Jones, announced that al-Qaeda had fewer than 100 members in Afghanistan.

However, given little political cover from the left, feeling little political pressure from the right and receiving nothing but a choice of small, medium or large escalation of the war by the Pentagon, President Obama in December 2009,ordered 30,000 more troops and billions of dollars into what soon would become America's longest war.

Predictably, by doubling-down on a policy that had proved counter-productive, betrayed our national values and failed to inflict damage on al-Qaeda, we went from being waist-deep to chest-deep in quicksand.

This past year surpassed 2009 as the deadliest year of the conflict, killing 57 percent more American service members.

Tragically, but unsurprisingly, 2011 has been even more deadly. Insurgent attacks from January to March increased nearly 50 percent from the same period in 2010, while American deaths from March to May of this year increased 41 percent from last spring's totals.

Nationwide, a U.S.-led campaign of night raids on homes has terrorized families, while a massive nation-building program funded by U.S. taxpayers has enriched a corrupt few and disenfranchised a poor majority. Again, betraying our own values, we looked the other way when elections were stolen for the second time in as many years. The number of civilian deaths are on pace to surpass the totals from 2010, the deadliest year of the war for civilians since 2001. The result: Eight in ten Afghan men now say the U.S. presence is bad for Afghanistan.

Al-Qaeda has not existed in any meaningful capacity in Afghanistan since we successfully scattered them in 2001. Over the last decade, they have evolved into an increasingly flat or networked organization(s) of individuals and small cells around the globe that is most successfully attacked through good intelligence, international law-enforcement cooperation and surgical-strikes, such as the raid against Osama bin Laden's compound in Pakistan. Our Afghan war policy does not affect al-Qaeda.

American troops killed or maimed in Afghanistan and others who have returned home with physical and mental injuries, increasing numbers of whom are taking their own lives, cannot be said to have made a worthy sacrifice. We must acknowledge to families that their losses did not prevent another September 11th.

Moreover, our policies have destabilized the region, most notably in Pakistan, a nuclear nation with 170 million people.

Indeed, President Obama was right to be skeptical.

It is in the United States' moral, fiscal and security interests to drawdown its forces and de-escalate the Afghan war.

That drawdown should be significant -- removing the most recent 30,000 surge troops by the end of 2011 and reducing to a total of fewer than 30,000 troops by the end of 2012. Combined with sincere political efforts in Afghanistan and the broader region, and by maintaining a focus on al-Qaeda, the United States can move Afghanistan and the region toward stability.

Unfortunately, it is expected that President Obama will announce this evening a withdrawal of 30,000 troops over 18 months. Such a withdrawal, particularly without a change in strategy commensurate with America's actual interests in Afghanistan, will only bring us back to where we in December 2009. Further, an 18 month long process will push the next decision point on the war to January 2013, effectively punting the war from the US' 2012 election cycle. By not making significant cuts in our troops in Afghanistan and no real changes in our strategy, we will continue to be stuck in Afghanistan's quicksand for years to come.

 

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10:45 AM on 06/30/2011
Isn't one of the many elephants in the Afghanistan living room THE HEROIN ?? Seems like this is a part of the picture no one wants to mention, much less intelligently discuss. Last year we paid a few of the "experts" ( /bullshit artists) to destroy poppy crops and "seek" narcotics almost TWO BILLION DOLLARS. I read somewhere that the Taliban ( whoever that really is) profited by 100 million from the narcotics trade. Guess this does not include the narcotics traffickers we leave alone because they are not connected to the Taliban. What a total waste of money,,uhmm,, unless you are one of the five bullshit artists who get the contracts to destroy the poppy crop. Puhlease.
12:31 AM on 06/24/2011
You mean to tell me there actually was a plan?
BraveWarrior
The truth will set you free, like it or not
07:19 PM on 06/24/2011
There plan seems to amount to an orgy of killing the Taliban until the Afghan government can stand on its feet when the US withdraws into their permanent bases there. Of course after ten years with all the most modern killing machines they have failed to defeat them. When will the Afghan national army and police ever have an airforce. With helicopters to rapidly move forces to trouble spots, and drones and fighter bombers to destroy suspect villages? Training Afghani pilots will become much easier once we teach them math and to read. Meanwhile, like our plan in Iraq, we'll just stick around and support our puppet governments with permanent bases that can house American airpower to support our guys there. It will cost a lot, but when have our leaders ever starved our empire? We have few strategic interests in Germany or Britain but that doesn't mean we ever intend to leave our bases there either.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Rianna
10:32 PM on 06/23/2011
If Al Qaeda wanted to financially cripple the US, it succeeded. This war was totally unnecessary and far too long. We should have tried to get Bin Laden, and returned. We overstayed our welcome long time ago, decimated that country, lost our kids, and killed thousands of civilians, we have poured in gazillions into this war (money that could have been used at home), the Taliban still thrives, Karzai is an ineffective leader who seems to do nothing, Only Bush and Cheney's buddies, contractors and weapon's manufacturers, are laughing all the way to the bank. What a waste.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
02:39 AM on 06/23/2011
FOOL YOU ONCE--I WILL FOOL YOU ALL THE TIME--WILL BE THERE PROTECTING THOSE OIL PIPE LINES FOREVER
ThinkCreeps
Seriously, it's time.
06:28 AM on 06/23/2011
Which oil pipelines?

I assume you mean the hypothetical central asia - arabian sea pipelines that don't exist?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
09:38 PM on 06/23/2011
Google UNOCAL trans oil pipelines from Afgan to Pak and India
BraveWarrior
The truth will set you free, like it or not
07:22 PM on 06/24/2011
That's why we are building permanent bases there. Always thinking ahead. They might come in handy if we ever need to bomb Pakistan or Iran. Or to save people if there is ever an earthquake, or an oil embargo.
12:22 AM on 06/23/2011
Here's a better plan. Turn the place over to Donald Trump....they go bankrupt instead of us.
12:19 AM on 06/23/2011
The plan was never meant to work. The plan was always for certain people to make a lot of money.
ThinkCreeps
Seriously, it's time.
06:28 AM on 06/23/2011
Mission accomplished!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Itsbeenalongday
Eliminating poverty is smart business
12:12 AM on 06/23/2011
No matter how much money gets poured into Afghanistan, they are not going to like you, particular after you killed cousin Arshad who was just feeding his goats or the next door neighbors kids who were asleep at the time the marines kicked in the door and shot anyone who moved.

They have memories longer than five seconds, which is what the military ask them have.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
09:45 PM on 06/23/2011
agreed FF, here is that story

http://www.siasat.pk/forum/showthread.php?62258-How-US-Drones-Kill-Afghan-Civilians
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Itsbeenalongday
Eliminating poverty is smart business
03:38 AM on 06/25/2011
I have spent four year in Afghanistan since 2002. None of this surprises me. Some 20 something kid with a penchant for video games gets to knock out real targets yet does not have to take any responsibility for what if it happened in the US would be called murder. The government buys its way out of having to deal with for 48 hundred.

Yes, there is real love out there.
05:47 PM on 06/22/2011
Who cares anymore? I stopped caring about Afghanistan after Bush screwed up in Bora Bora and let bin Laden get away. We need to pull out of Afghanistan and if it gets out of hand again, bomb from a distance. Nothing we do in Afghanistan will work, because nothing done in Afghanistan has ever worked. The people there don't want it to.
ThinkCreeps
Seriously, it's time.
06:29 AM on 06/23/2011
Who cares? Over 100,000 poor buggers from the US forces and about 30 million afghans.
10:51 PM on 06/23/2011
I think you overestimate the interest of the Americans over there. Most have no more interest being over there than I do. And if the 30 million Afghanis really cared, they'd have resolved this in a span of time less than 10 years.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Kevin Zeese
05:43 PM on 06/22/2011
Good analysis, for as far as it goes -- Afghanistan has been a failure, but Afghanistan cannot be understood unless we put on our American Empire glasses and see how it fits into a global strategy. Look at a map -- China, Iran, Pakistan are all in the neighborhood. Military bases in Afghanistan provide excellent positioning for military actions involving those countries. The odds of military conflict with each is very real and rising. China is challenging the U.S. economically, in Africa, with oil producing nations and we are in deep debt to them. There can be little doubt that the Pentagon has military attack plans for China which could bomb them back 200 years and no longer make them a competitor and because they would become enemies, the U.S. would justify erasing its debt to China.

Of course, the often reality of war is about profits for U.S. and allied business interests. The precious metals under Afghan soil, reportedly worth a trillion dollars are lots of profits for business interests. The most decorated Marine in history, General Smedley Butler, long ago described himself as a gangster for capitalism, the same is true today.

This is not about al Qaeda, which never had a war's worth of people in Afghanistan. This is about global positioning and profiting from Afghan resources. But then, that is true for most U.S. wars. Everything else we hear is FOG -- (propaganda from the Forces of Greed).

KZ
Director, ComeHomeAmerica.US
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
09:58 PM on 06/23/2011
excellent post FF, more,“does this sound familiar? :Nineteen Eighty-Fou­­r (mostly written 1984) is a 1948 dystopian novel written by George Orwell, about an oligarchic­­al, collectivi­­st society. Life in the Oceanian province of Airstrip One is a world of perpetual war, pervasive government surveillan­­ce, and incessant public mind control. The individual is always subordinat­­ed to the state, and it is in part this philosophy which allows the Party to manipulate and control humanity. In the Ministry of Truth, protagonis­­t Winston Smith is a civil servant responsibl­­e for perpetuati­­ng the Party's propaganda by revising historical records to render the Party omniscient and always correct, yet his meager existence disillusio­­ns him to the point of seeking rebellion against Big Brother.

As literary political fiction, Nineteen Eighty-Fou­­r is considered a classic novel of the social science fiction subgenre. Since its publicatio­­n in 1949, many of its terms and concepts, such as Big Brother, doublethin­­k, thoughtcri­­me, Newspeak, and Memory hole, have become contempora­­ry vernacular­­. In addition, the novel popularise­­d the adjective Orwellian, which refers to lies, surveillan­­ce, and manipulati­­on of the past in the service of a totalitari­­an agenda.”
BraveWarrior
The truth will set you free, like it or not
07:28 PM on 06/24/2011
Must be becoming very expensive to have our carrier task forces streaming into potential hotspots. Cheaper, if not much, to establish permanent bases and dream of empire. Those darn Chinese, instead of spending billions building a white water war machine, they invest in missiles that make our dreadnuts sitting ducks. Is that any way to build an empire?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Fred Lane
Romney....None and Done!
03:29 PM on 06/22/2011
Plan.....what plan???
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heron77
Drive on the right
03:16 PM on 06/22/2011
The plan has not worked? Hey it is still active. Have we made progress? Compare the power of the Taliban and AlQaeda ten years ago and now. We have eliminated nearly all of their training camps, we have cut off most of their money and their leaders are hunting a new bed every night. We have them on the run, but the job is not finished. Their leaders will have to all be eliminated or they must agree to a settlement to end the violence.

Saying the plan hasn't worked before it is finished is like saying the game is over in the third quarter of a football game. It's over when it's over..
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04:06 PM on 06/22/2011
"Hope" can be a good thing, sometimes.

Wishful thinking, not so much ...
02:43 PM on 06/22/2011
Exactly why should the president be obeying the Pentagon? After ten years of so little military success shouldn't the president be taking advice from quarters other than the Pentagon? Or maybe the presence of 100,000 private contractors in Afghanistan is clouding the President's thinking?
BraveWarrior
The truth will set you free, like it or not
07:30 PM on 06/24/2011
Let's all pray that their contracts run out before the 2012 election!
01:51 PM on 06/22/2011
Our soldiers are doing as much harm, if not more, than good; our money and policies are potentially destabilizing the country for years to come. It's important that we consider both how many troops we pull out and how quickly as well as considering how, it at all, we can do so responsibly.

Interested in this topic? Read more about it on Foreign Policy in Focus: http://www.fpif.org/articles/afghanistan_going_through_withdrawal
01:37 PM on 06/22/2011
So much for on-the-job-training. Obama campaigned against Bush strategies, only to adopt them as his own. Then again, I do not regret Obama as McCain would've been far worse for this war and for his party. At least with Obama, GOP is unified instead of splintered and despite McCain's insistence that the war be fought to a successful end, most people realize there is no definition of success and hence there is no end. For the first time in a decade both GOP and DEM want an end to a war that was never really a war and more like an overgrown weapons testing grounds and a bad episode of "COPS". Not taking anything away from fine men and women who fought, the political aims were unrealistic and price tag just too high.