With the threat of a strike over and with the league making steady progress year after year, there are lots of reasons to think that this year could be a breakthrough year for Major League Soccer.
What do I mean by breakthrough? For instance, if you look at 2009, I would argue that it was a breakthrough year for the US national team. The Confederations Cup performance - where the US beat Spain and narrowly lost to Brazil - created a huge amount buzz at home and abroad. It got people talking about soccer. The traditional sports media was forced to take notice - Dan Patrick had Landon Donovan on his radio show twice, ESPN's SportsNation talked about the game, and American newspapers gave the US team extensive coverage. Similarly, the US-Mexico game received unprecedented hype for a World Cup qualifier - NPR covered it in their news updates, ESPN sent a whole crew to do pre and post game coverage, and Bill Simmons declared his love for the yanks. On top of this, ESPN got very serious about soccer - they bought the rights to the Premier League and demonstrated that they would go all out on the World Cup. Furthermore, more US players landed abroad in top leagues - Onyewu to Milan, Davies to France, Jozy to England. US Soccer after the last year is now suddenly quite respected abroad and increasingly followed at home. In that sense, 09 was a real breakout year.
In this sense, I think MLS is primed for a similar year, in which the mainstream American sports world begins to take notice in a serious way. I think MLS will have a number of things going for it.
First, and most importantly, the northeast corridor of the United States - America's cultural and economic heart (sorry Cali) - is going to get a soccer jolt.
The New York market looks like it finally may get tapped. MLS in NYC has for too long been less than an after thought. Playing in the distant and isolated Meadowlands in cavernous Giants Stadium, led to pathetic attendance and widespread apathy, which was only further exacerbated by consistently horrible performances on the field over the last decade.
With the opening of a new stadium, the Red Bulls don't just seem to be opening a new venue, they seem to be opening up an offensive to take over New York City. They are marketing the stadium with the humility of New Yorkers, calling it the "future of soccer in America." They have a brilliant new ad, targeting the 20-something urban NYC male demographic, seeking to convince those across the Hudson of the accessibility of Red Bull arena. This is the demographic that has energized teams like DC United, Seattle, and Toronto. The ad has also gotten air time on Fox Soccer Channel, which is no doubt an effort to appeal to the legions of soccer fans in the big apple that follow European leagues but not MLS. This that Red Bulls seem to get it.
It seems safe to expect that the Red Bulls will have large 20,000 plus crowds throughout the year. Such turnout at such a flashy arena will inevitably draw greater attention and boost interest in the team in the area. While this will help put people in the seats, expanded interest will also help boost television ratings in the hugely important New York media market. This could be of potentially huge significance to the league by boosting television ratings nationwide - expanding MLS' television ratings is vital to making the league more profitable. Additionally, since the New York media market often drives coverage and opinion nation-wide, making in roads here will give the league greater credibility nationwide. In other words, if you can make it here, you can make it anywhere. The Red Bulls of course have to cut it on the field, but they can't be as bad as last year and with new coach Hans Backe there is a degree of optimism.
Everybody hates Philly. It seems bizarre that this hotbed of a sports town is only now getting a MLS team. Philadelphia is a big market. It is in a region that has significant interest in the game. It will have a grand stadium on the waterfront (although it is a bit unfortunate it is not more centrally located). These factors make it seem clear that Philly will be a great success, perhaps on par with Toronto and Seattle. But I think what makes Philly even more important to the league is that sports fans in DC and New York hate Philadelphia sports teams. Did I mention it is sports-crazed city? Philly had a prominent supporters group called "the Sons of Ben" years before it was ever granted a team. These guys would go to random DC and New York games to cheer against them. Sure DC has a rivalry with New York, but that has never got the blood boiling the way the NFC East rivalries do in the NFL. The rivalries that Philly will generate with NYC and DC should be fantastic for the league and give soccer in the northeast corridor, America's largest media market, an important jolt of interest and enthusiasm.
Second, new some new arrivals will cause of stir. The loss of Beckham to injury for what could be the entire season, is definitely a blow to the league. But with rumors of Barcelona's Thierry Henry or Real Madrid's Raul interested in coming to MLS, it seems pretty probable that the league will land a couple of well known internationals that have a decent amount of juice in the tank. These players will not only add some talent but will draw some attention in the US, as well as in their home countries. Additionally, this rookie class that should turn some heads just like last years. The young talent in the league is getting better and a couple of the young rookies should be impact players right away.
Third, the World Cup will leave many wanting more. Soccer will be treated more seriously during the month of June than it ever has been before in the United States. ESPN is absolutely going all out, the US-England game will by tremendously hyped, and for the perhaps the first time, soccer will dominate the American sport space for an extended period of time. Immediately, after the last World Cup, Bill Simmons, once a noted soccer knocker, wrote a column saying he found himself missing the game and he decided to pick an EPL team to support. After a month of soccer madness, MLS will be able to bask in some of this reflected glory, especially if the yanks do well. It is hard to say how much of an affect this will have. But one has to assume that it will have some.
Fourth, 16 teams is a credible amount of teams and will add more intensity to regular season games. The playoff chase was quite exciting last year, but that was partly due to the mediocrity of all the those competing for the final few spots. But now, with half the teams missing out on the playoffs, there will be a bit more pressure right off the bat, making every game will matter just a bit more than it used to.
So how will we know if this is a break out year? Culturally, it will in some ways be a bit like pornography - you will know it when you see it. I think in general a bit better and more thorough coverage on Sportscenter, a notable traditional (read old white guy dead tree) journalist discovers the league and says so. Economically, and most importantly, there will be an uptick in television ratings and overall league attendance should rise. In general, MLS will go into 2011 with the wind at its back. With two new teams entering next year - Portland and Vancouver - MLS, before this year is done, will likely have investors chomping at the bit for additional expansion franchises.
Also I feel that the MLS should drop the league/playoff system to determine the final champion. RSL were not worthy champions last year and in any other domestic league in the world they would not be crowned champions.
MLS should have a 'league cup" for playoff style champion and a proper domestic league champion for the team that finishes top of a unified table (no east-west conference bollocks).
But. Really? "Everybody hates Philly"?
Try "everybody hates New York," and for good reason. I'm stickin' with the UNION!
A few other good things should happen down the line. Chicago is building a stronger crowd, certainly in evidence during last year's playoffs. Houston is likely to move to a soccer stadium where it should sell out big games and build to selling out most games. DC United can draw a good crowd, if they can get a stadium that was built for it.
If all this comes together, it paints the picture of a league pretty close to ready-for-prime-time as what I'd call a 'mid-major' (not nearly the blockbuster business of the Big 4+NASCAR, but enough to make semi-regular peeks into the mainstream, and enough that several of the franchises will be desirable, 8-figure commodities). . . by 2012 or 2013 or so. It's after that when you'll slowly get used to MLS appearing on your SportsCenter and your PTIs in non-trivial senses from time to time.
There won't be any particular "breakthrough," that's just not how things ever happen for soccer. What there will be is a whole bunch of little pieces falling into place (with a few steps backward here and there), until one day you'll wake up and say, "hey, when did I miss soccer entering the mainstream?"
* MLS still isn't stocked with the kind of players that will convince as stars yet. Many of them (Juan Pablo Angel, Guillermo Barros Schelotto, Landon Donovan) are better than you think they are, but they don't come suitably close to what the established leagues offer yet (unless the point of comparison is to 'golfers other than Tiger Woods' . . . that's a pretty achievable goal). And a Henry or Raul have appeal amongst soccer fandom, but a lot less cross-over appeal (Henry may have a little, Raul none) than Beckham. And there isn't a soccer player on the immediate horizon with big-time crossover appeal. And the regular work-a-day players don't make a lot (avg salary last year was $88k).
* 15 years is a credible statement of staying power, but it's not quite tradition yet.
* 16 teams is sort of similar. It's enough not to look feeble, but not enough to impress anybody. Especially when only about a third of them, (assuming the Philly and NY predictions come true) really pack the house. That's a trend that should get better over time--Portland, Vancouver, and the presumptive 19th team Montreal are all basically 'sure things'--but not in time for 2010.
So far, it's been a case where year-by-year, every year since about 2002, the league has been slightly stronger than the previous year. We've gotten to the point where the Toronto team has never failed to sell out its stadium, and the Seattle team drew 30,000 a game last year and will draw 35,000 a game this year. If those things were happening in the Northeast, where the main historical US sports markets are, some people would notice. You add a Philly team that sells out its 18,500-seater every game and a NY team that can draw, say 20,000 or more a game in a stadium that's designed to make that crowd look and feel great as the Red Bull Arena is (and it's actually always been a pretty 'easy' thing to get a NY soccer team to draw. . . what's hard is doing it without undercutting the rest of the league), and you'll have a tangibly stronger league yet again.
But it still won't get all the pundit radio/TV shows talking about it, the way the Confed Cup did. . .
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Rather telling, don't you think?
Slightly used rose-colored glasses available cheap from Max Bergmann.