I am not an opponent/proponent of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton or anyone else. I am in no way writing to convince anyone to vote for or against any candidate. I do believe in playing follow the money. If you don't, this article will only confuse and upset you.
Hillary Clinton was the poll and fundraising leader through the end of September 2007. Obama was a close second. As we entered the final stretch of 2007, Hillary had raised a stunning $90 million plus. Obama was close and gaining with over $80 million. If recent reports in the Boston Globe are correct, Hillary raised an additional $30 million in the last 3 months of 2007 and Obama raised an addition $23 million. This would put Hillary at about $110 million and Obama at $104 million going into 2008 and the Obama surge.
One has to assume that Barack has, or soon will, eclipse Clinton and shatter past obscene fundraising records. The return on Obama's vast spending has been victory and massive publicity as the grassroots candidate. Only in modern America does someone spend $9 million in Iowa advertising -- over a million more than Hillary and three times as much as Edwards -- to win as the "grass roots" candidate. Ironically, it is in the crowded Republican field that money seems to matter less and the particular tastes of local voters matter more.
In Iowa it was Edwards and Huckabee that could plausibly claim to have vastly outperformed their spending. Hillary and Romney failed to get all that they paid for. Obama spent the most and got the most votes. National media have been selling this as lightening strike for populism. It seems equally likely that religious discrimination against Mormons and cold, hard cash ruled the day. The money analysis may not be the stuff of warm fuzzy excitement; it is consistent with the results. I would guess that we are seeing the appeal of charisma, personal charm and very expensive media presence. This takes nothing away from the impressive Obama and Huckabee victories. I just seek to base discussion on reality, not fantasy. We would all like to think that every voter is all knowing and carefully weighs all candidates. We would feel better if pure democratic preference selected our leadership. We know better?
As New Hampshire passes into clear view, it looks like a repeat of Iowa for Democrats. Edwards looks likely to get more votes than he paid for, Obama tops vote and spend tallies with over $5 million in TV ads and Clinton comes in well below her spending. The greater change and role of public passions is likely to be seen on the Republican side where McCain manages to do better than his spending and Romney underperforms his massive outlays. Clearly it is not all about money, clearly massive spending makes a massive difference. Candidates without multimillions don't have what our system requires to tell people how different and un-beholden to wealth they really are. This is message the public should be getting and will not.
Early results from Election 2008 suggest that either the donors are wrong, or public perception of the candidates is the product of ad spending and spin. Of course you still have to have a product to pitch and that still matters. Who is giving money? What industries are the lead backers of which candidates? Hillary and Barack are cleaning up from health care, pharmaceuticals, entertainment, finance, insurance, electronics, communications and other leading sectors. In most cases they were close across the last three months of 2007. They should be even closer -- with a possible move out front by Obama -- as this goes to press. Both Democratic Party front runners are drawing all important support from similar industry groups. Hillary gets more support from lobbyists and large donors. Or she did going into Iowa and New Hampshire? Obama's fundraisers have already been directly appealing to Hillary's big donors to pinch her lifeline and fund their spending based poll spree.
So it is in the world of American grassroots politics. Change is what America wants and likely all that will be left over after our candidates pay back the billion dollars they will raise from donors in the quest for the White House.