Local and state finances receive very little national attention. Across the most recent economic crisis local government finances have taken an epic battering. The situation in California has received some attention, less than it deserves. The terrible toll of past policy and present economic weakness has not been drawn out into the light of debate. This short article seeks to start the conversation for three reasons. First, the financial condition in our 50 states, 3000 counties and 36,000 municipalities is severe. Second, state and local governments employ almost 10% of the US population and have been firing folks at a brisk clip. Thirdly, contraction in state and local government hiring, spending and service provision threatens to lower economic growth, reduce quality of life and increase inequality of income and opportunity. We are early into a decentralized, local austerity program similar to events in the Euro Zone.
How bad is it?
Bad. The states are in serious difficulty. As the recession began in late 2007 states were already spending at a fairly high clip and taxing at relatively low rate levels. As recession took hold demands for state services -- direct and through aid to localities -- increased sharply. States rely heavily on income and sales taxes. Consumption fell, employment fell and wages were stagnant to down. This reduced all the major sources of revenue. US states continue to face record demands for services, pension costs and health care costs. States have unfunded health and pension liability claims that run many hundreds of billions of dollars. Revenues are significantly down from 2007 levels. From 2003-2007 states were beneficiaries of revenues from booming construction, housing markets and retail spending. Housing has been in the worst recession in living memory and the average house price is off more than 25% since 2006. Declining personal income tax receipts, falling corporate income tax receipts and declines in sales tax have created one of the largest declines in income to US states in modern history. 2010 is shaping up to be a better revenue year than 2009. However, there will be widespread and long term deficits in most states. States face over $110 billion in budget shortfall in 2011. Many states have been getting by through a combination of federal assistance and issuing federally subsidized bonds -- Build America Bonds. These two short term measures will be trailing off across 2011.
Localities relay on state assistance for nearly $1 in every $3 that they spend. Localities depend heavily on property taxes for the balance of their income -- in some cases sales taxes. The massive decline in property values in the US over the last few years will begin to put pressure on already stretched local and municipal budgets. It takes several years for falling property prices to show up in declining revenue to localities. Property is reassessed only every few years. State aid will be in decline as federal stimulus to states will trail off this year and states are in dire financial health. Local areas spend more than half their budgets on education and social services. These budgets are under significant and growing pressures. Like states, most municipalities have a fiscal year that ends in June and begins in July. Look for battles over wages, benefits and employment levels to heat up this spring. Massive pressure to lower costs and employment at the state and local level are here and are likely to grow more intense soon.
According to research from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) local governments have cut their spending by 2% and reduced their workforces by 241,000 since the start of this recession. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data shows that states have reduced their payrolls by 166,000 between November of 2009 and November 2010. There is every indication that these trends, state and local, will continue and are likely to become more dramatic. As payrolls are cut we should expect less service provision despite the continued high demand for services. This is a recipe for stresses for public educational institutions, law enforcement, colleges, universities, infrastructure and many other services. The reductions in spending and employment at the state and local levels will reduce economic growth. Reduced growth is likely to acutely affect lower income populations. Cuts in progressive and graduate federal income tax, estate taxes and capital gains taxes reduce the tax burden on the most affluent. Rising local property taxes, rising sales taxes and declining services at the state and local level are regressive. Taxes that land hard on lower and middle income households will rise and services to these households will fall.
Headwinds
The most recent tax bill reduces the income tax levels on more affluent Americans. This is likely to hurt localities. How? Municipal bond markets are how localities and local authorities -- schools, utilities, water facilities -- raise money for projects. They sell bonds -- called municipal securities -- to raise money. The income from these bonds is usually tax exempt. The higher the investor's tax rate, the more appealing municipal bonds usually are. Cutting the tax rate on higher income earners lowers the appeal of municipal bonds. Additionally, there is growing worry that we are likely to see rising defaults or attempts to renegotiating debts from municipalities over the next 6 to 12 months. Thus, our recent tax cut will further complicate the present difficulties in the municipal bond market. A federal program -- part of the stimulus -- has been subsidizing the interest cost of local bond issuers. This is set to expire after 2011.
There is every reason to believe that states and localities will continue to reduce spending and employment. This will mean fewer and more stressed budgets and personnel dealing with historically high levels of need. Education and basic social services are likely to suffer the lion's share of pain. This bodes very poorly for equality of opportunity. At risk communities are already suffering from weak labor markets, low wages and the end of unemployment benefits. To this we will add a shrinking pool of opportunity for secure jobs with high benefits in state and local employment. We are likely to see public sector unions weakened. There is a great coming fight about public sector pension benefits. Beginning in February and March there will be several rounds of contentious and dramatic suggestions of social spending cuts as Congress is required to debate and vote on raising the national debt ceiling.
We now run the risk that 2010 closes with tax cuts heavily beneficial to the most affluent Americans and 2011 begins with service, education and employment cuts that will fall hard on the least affluent.
Balance budget is the answer and small, efficient government is the answer. CA, IL and other states need to go bankrupt and fix the contracts and deals they made to honor the pensions they promised to millions.
Cut their funding by half and get them under control. After all they are our representatives and it is our futures that we are talking about. They only work for us...
We need a creative way to cancel the effects of bad national decisions, by legislating at the local level. In California, the best thing we could do is repeal prop 13. Let the rich property owners pay their fair share. Until that multimillion dollar home on the coast is realistically taxed, local municipalities will never catch up to their obligations. Sadly again, the poor will suffer the most.
We have to realize that culling the herd would only benefit the wealthy. They no longer need our labor. They consider us to be in the way. There are already schools, hospitals and towns that are exclusively for the rich. Life expectancy for the rich is 7 years longer than a poor man's. The consequences of Reagan's trickle down economy are bearing fruit, but it is rotten and wormy. The rich don't need the nation's infrastructure. They have boats, planes and helicopters to get around. John Edwards might have been a cheating liar, but he was correct that there are two Americas. We need the ET's to check in and help.
What is worst is every proposed budget is made primarily through cutting services, borrowing money from proposed future revenue, creative accounting, money from the federal government, hoping and praying. Politians cry the state is being bled by the state pension fund that's been underfunded for years to pay for earlier tax cuts, and demonize unions who are trying to keep their people employed and with a living wage.
Yet they cry raising taxes wil hurt recovery andl reduce jobs.
My state has the 7th largest economy in the world. Think about the world wide havoc that'll occur if it fails.
I'm sure the statistics in my state are the same or even worse in the rest of the country, and yet I haven't heard anything from the government about what they intend to do about jobs.....and this situation must be corrected by the governments free trade policies and the tax breaks for big business to move overseas.
And the right is still raving about entitlements...w/o those we'd be dying in the streets.
If the recovery ever takes hold, a barrel of oil will be $100, in 5-6 years it's predicted to go to $150 a barrel because of peak oil. Because oil is priced in dollars a devalued dollar would make it even higher. We import more oil than we could ever ramp up to export goods and services over the next decade.
This would create jobs through the "Home star" and "Building Star" programs as outlined here:
http://pacÂenow.org/dÂocuments/RÂecovery_ThÂrough_RetrÂofit_FinalÂ_Report.pdÂf that precisely spells out both the public and private roles that creates a market through which private sector jobs are created.â€
â–ºDE-FUND WALL STREET: I don't want my retirement money through tax policy to be sent to Wall Street and gambled with or invested in India or China! I want to be able to invest it back into my community, where it will allow my small business to grow and those of my neighbors. The ROI on my 401k should be Investment = ROI on investment + less taxes paid + increased business opportunitÂÂÂÂies, and this only happens when we reinvest into our communitieÂÂÂÂs.
â–ºTRADING PLACES: "The best way to get back at rich people is to make them poor people" Eddie Murphyâ€
All the financial shenanigans and deregulation in America.....is finally taking a toll.
It was to be expected. The bill is coming due.
AND it hurts. Especially the lower classes.