Pennsylvania Voters Dismiss Obama's Momentum
At the Obama Town Hall Meeting in Harrisburg on Sunday night, capital city bloggers (Progressives, all) were gloomy. Looking around the place, they could find nobody from state or city government, not even "down to the third degree," as one put it. When Hillary Clinton had come through two weeks before, everybody had shown. There are a couple of interesting things about Clinton's dominance in Pennsylvania at a time when Obama continues to lengthen his lead nationally, both in the polls and in pledged delegates (Even Mississippi took a delegate away from Clinton yesterday and gave him or her to Obama.) First of all, you have to ask yourself why government officials and employees are supporting Clinton if hers is a lost cause. Maybe ordinary Quaker Staters don't grasp the significance of math and momentum but surely civil servants do. Part of the answer lies in the stubbornness and civic pride of these Quaker Staters. They want their chance to vote, they're looking forward to it, they've been waiting patiently for their turn--and they darn well don't want to be told their vote is only a rubber stamp on Obama's passport to the nomination.
Another reason for Clinton's appeal among the Pennsylvania political class speaks to the heart of her strength as a candidate and potential president. Such professionals know that she will keep an eye on specific projects and make sure of their implementation. During Obama's Harrisburg Q & A, a lady complained about "the way America treats its cities." Specifically, she wanted to know if Obama could assure the good citizens of Harrisburg that the new federal courthouse, which was supposed to be built in the inner city neighborhood only two blocks away, would in fact be built. The federal government had approved the funding (130 million), but the money had never been released. One thing about Barack Obama for which you have to give him credit is that, unlike most politicians, when he doesn't know the answer he admits as much. So the best Obama could reply was that "if Bob Casey likes it," then the plan must be a good one. Clinton, on the other hand, likely knows every detail about that project and has already promised every Harrisburg official that she will personally make sure of the courthouse.
Harrisburg really really wants that courthouse, as the questioner made clear to Obama. Harrisburg really needs that courthouse. Driving through Pennsylvania, which is the first state I've covered for this election that's new to me, I've been shocked and depressed by the dereliction of Pennsylvania's cities. As a former Memphian, I know what once thriving midtowns and neighborhoods turning to wasteland look like. But Johnstown, Lancaster, Allentown and Harrisburg all had farther to fall than Memphis, which never got very far from an agrarian economy and never had much manufacturing, and therefore the crumbling of Penn cities is in no way picturesque. Political observers frequently comment that there is little difference between Clinton and Obama on the issues, and certainly this is true. But by now it is also clear that the two candidates have very different political temperaments. Clinton is a problem-solver whose approach is methodical, incremental and serial. In her speeches, she talks about the tasks ahead as if they were beads to be strung one-by-one. Obama, on the other hand, looks at the country's problems from a larger viewpoint. Despite all his policy papers and the details of his various plans, Obama is never able to overcome the impression listeners have that he is not really interested in all the specifics the way Clinton is. And these potential voters are right. Obama has a vision of where he wants to take the country, and certainly he keeps his eye on the major road markers. But Obama is the candidate with the bigger picture. He has that rare quality of mind for holding opposite perspectives in equilibrium. At one and the same time, he can keep the entire landscape in view while synchronizing all the foreground details.
The question is to what extent Pennsylvanians, who can use all the little federal programs they can lay their hands on, appreciate Obama's larger vision. All I can tell you is that I've met many here like the many elsewhere who get what Obama's about. Last night at the Obama rally in Allentown, I talked to John, a sixty-something like me, who observed that "we are totally on the cusp, the nation is on the cusp of significant changes." This is the kind of response to Obama I often find out on the campaign trail, and it drives some people wild because, of course, exactly what these changes are is unclear. John went on to say that it is time for "a younger generation" to take the reins of power. His attitude is part of one of the forces driving Election '08: the rise of the younger voter. And it's not just that so many young people have registered to vote, have already voted, have thrown themselves into various campaigns (Ron Paul is still going going going in Pennsylvania.) It's that children have taught their parents. Last night I met Barbara, who like Bob Casey and Caroline Kennedy and Claire McCaskill has been turned to Obama by daughters. Barbara has always voted Republican (for Bush both times) --until now. And she thinks that Obama can do something with the country "if he can get other people to move their butts" -- which is exactly Obama's own caveat in every speech, if in slightly more elegant language.
And it's not just that Obama wants us to move our butts. The man wants to make weight loss a centerpiece of his health care plan, and he's mentioned our national avoirdupois in every Pennsylvania event so far. For the first time, however, in Harrisburg I heard Obama mention "incentivizing wellness programs" as a part of the prevention component of his health care plan. Clearly, Mr. He Who Is Thin As A Rail and Works Out Every Day is going to be a bit of a taskmaster if elected President. After the town hall meeting in Johnstown on Saturday, I chatted briefly with Tammy and her friend Shari. When I asked the ladies what had struck them about Obama, Tammy said she liked the dictum to parents to turn off the TV, to take responsibility--she paused--to exercise. The three of us looked at one another and laughed conspiratorily, for all three of us are plumpish. There's always been a note of tough love in Obama's exhortations to the American people; now that note is more dominant. He emphasizes our collective need to cut down both on calories and oil, to take responsibility, to ready our children for school, to prepare for sacrifice to get things done. Curiously, tough love hits a chord with Obama's listeners. Both Tammy and Shari had been Clinton supporters until they heard Obama take questions from his audience in Johnstown. "I'm a teacher," Tammy went on to say, "and I appreciate the fact that he also has a vision for education." She had gone to hear Clinton at Penn State Fayette, but she felt that she got "a more honest vibe" from Obama. Shari said that Obama's promise to put health care negotiations on C-Span had won her over.
The promise of transparency, the honest vibe, the vision thing -- throw in Obama's sense of humor and his refusal to demonize his opponent(s) -- and you've got much the same reasons Pennsylvanians as Iowans choose Obama, particularly when, like Tammy and Shari, they get a chance to see him in person. The problem for Obama in Pennsylvania, of course, is that not that many are going to be able to attend his town hall meetings or to go bowling with him, like some lucky Altoonans did on Saturday night. Altoona is in hardscrabble western PA, which is not supposed to be Obama country, but all it took was one Saturday night date for a couple hundred in the small city to choose Obama. Talking with some of the crowd in the bowling alley parking lot, I watched husbands and wives fall for Obama like nine-pins--and this was even before he emerged from his evening of "four gutter balls and a strike" to shake hands. Everybody was on cell phones, providing friends and neighbors with a minute-by-minute account of Obama's bowling adventure and his chowdown at Texas Hot Dogs, which nobody there had even seen, only the hour before. Sometimes all it takes is the personal touch--forget the programs and policies. It's the simple fact of the candidate showing up, shaking a hand, signing a book or a cap or a bill envelope--actions that validate a shared humanity. Of course, Clinton could come through next week and the nine-pins could fall the other way. But sometimes a chain reaction is set in motion that is hard to break. At Pleasant Valley Bowl, for example, a young sailor, home on leave, announced to the crowd that his shipmates aboard the U.SS. Harry S. Truman in the Persian Gulf are "all for Obama." The people standing around him nodded, taking this in.
Pennsylvania also reminds me of Iowa in its dynamic of the three-way race. Just as John Edwards was the wild card in Iowa, making volatile what even then was a Clinton-Obama competition, so another John is very much a part of this Democratic contest. John McCain is the elephant in the room that Democratic strategizers and organizers have trouble dealing with but that Pennsylvania voters confront every day. I saw the various combinations of this three-way while trapped for two hours inside the Secret Service cordon outside Altoona's Texas Hot Dogs. Polling my fellow spectators, their preferences fell fairly evenly McCain-Obama-Clinton 27-25-20. Of course, Clinton may have had a poorer showing because it was Obama, not she, chomping on a prized Altoona dog. But what was interesting was the way folks shuffled their choices depending on who gets the Democratic nomination. Two retired union men are McCain forever--although one shouldn't count because he has never voted and is proud of it. Their best friend took the Texas Hot Dog moment to "come out" for Obama. It seems he had liked Obama all along and now didn't care who knew it. This announcement stunned his cousins in the crowd, all of whom were Clinton supporters with McCain as a second choice. Another couple for McCain said that if he "didn't show well" (they had just come from the dog show in Pittsburg) they might vote for Obama. A man who had brought his grandsons downtown for hot dogs said that he was for McCain but that he had promised his wife that if Clinton got the nomination he would vote for her, since the wife was volunteering for Clinton. A lot of horsetrading is going on, and at least for now McCain is the escape valve for blowing off steam coming from fervid believers in both Clinton and Obama.
The second question is whether Obama's "Road to Change" bus tour introduces him to enough Pennsylvanians so that he can establish a presence for himself here. Today the tour reaches Scranton, the stronghold of Clinton Country. We'll see how this particular day on the road plays out.
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I had to laugh at the comment in this post about Obama's plans to "incentivevise" health care or whatever and that he's interested in weight control. If BO had actually quit smoking, he would not have lost weight during this campaign - he would have gained at least a few pounds. BO is ingesting nicotine in one form or another and having a cigarette on the sly whenever he can. Nicotine is his weight control plan. So much for health care.
Yes, everyone is well aware that the political machine in Pennsylvania is behind Senator Clinton. Indeed, in every contest this year, every significant democratic machine has been behind Senator Clinton. There is nothing new here. The remarkable thing is that despite this advantage and Senator Clinton's 100% name recognition, Senator Obama is still significantly ahead of her and there is very little chance that Senator Clinton can catch-up.
It is interesting that you wrote both this story and another which are both purportedly news and in your other story you insulted Californians like me who support Senator Obama and called Senator Obama "cocky" for no apparent news reason.
Senator Obama is the most remarkable politician in years. I would think that the Democratic party and all of its members would be ecstatic that Senator Obama has outraised even the Republicans and done so from small donors, outperformed and outorganized. It seems odd that the politician that Democrats have been dreaming about for years has arrived and some find his presence unacceptable. I hope this furor will subside once he secures the nomination. Because it is critical that we put our strongest candidate up against Senator McCain in the general election and Senator Obama by every reliable measure is that candidate.
Color me confused. What's with the headline "PA Voters Dismiss Obama Momentum." The first graph or two seemed to contend this, but the rest of the post actually made the case that Obama's got momentum in PA. The headline should have been punctuated with a headline. Or perhaps the headline writer is an editorialist, or simply didn't get past the first two graphs. In any case, this Obama supporter was braced for another gut blow but came away feeling pretty good about O's chances in PA.
Obama supporters need to stop fighting Hillary supporters. Why? We know she’s lost (we’ll never convince them), and the only thing it serves is to send them off in a different direction. I say, let’s start hitting the Republican blogs and stories. Start the takedown of Duyba 3 (the final end of a trilogy that no one wants – except John McCain). Spread the word.
Last I recall, John McCain and G W Bush are two different people. Look past the fact that there is a (R) next to there names, John McCain can attract Democrats. Obama can attract Socialist, so thank God that NYC, Philly, DC and San Fran dose not elect our Presidents.
Your ignorance of politics is surpassed only by your ignorance of spelling and grammar.
To wit: John McSame/ McBush represents a continuation of the Bush policy package, ergo they ARE the same, despite the name change.
Got that?
For God's sake little kid, stay in the shallow end of the politics pool, will ya?
We need a second site, like "Huffington Kids" with logo written in a multicolored crayon font for these political newbies, mouthbreathers and political hacks.
Just HAVING an opinion isn't enough of a reason for you to post it.
You first need to be an INFORMED SOURCE in order to know what the hell you're talking about. Then your opinion needs to be intelligent, cogent backed up by facts.
Not some drunken, incoherent ramblings in broken English.
Sheesh...
I pray Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Kentucky, Oregon and Peurto Rico understand the importance of this vote.....research, listen and choose wisely, which I'm sure you will. I don't think you are 'closed off communities' or stuck in the past? It's not name recognition that counts it's character. Perhaps you have a problem with race? I don't know? but in this election, skill, intelligence, integrity and judgement is ALL necessary for this President. I know myself, whenever I hear the name Clinton, my first thought's are... the Oval Office tribute to Monica....then, the credibility issue's since 'Watergate". No...not Whitewater...but Watergate. Whitewater came later. Her Management fired her, called her a liar, and falsifying documents over President Nixon. Wooooh!! Yes, this girl's (Hillary) been around long time getting into trouble. She's never played it straight, never will. When you hear rumor's, check them out. Don't just say...."I don't believe Hillary's like that!", until you check it out. More often than not "Birds of a feather, flock together" . Her fantastic support group.....aren't they darling???.....came from Arkansas, Wellesley....etc., Be careful and smart with your vote. It is your future.
McCain in the fall
So how do you explain Obama catching up with and even surpassing her in the PA polling?
I note you mentioned Ron Paul. Who allowed you to do so?
Just a comment about the Obama youth against age thing.You do know that Obama and Hillary are in the babyboom generation? 1946-1964
Oh my GOD.
And entire article about how, once again, the Obamaculters are "puzzled" why an upcoming state does not get the "obama momentum".....here we are again, just like before OH and TX.
Maybe, just MAYBE, YOU ARE OVERESTIMATING HIS "MOMENTUM"?????????????
YA THINK? MAYBE?????
He's still ahead. So, not a problem.
PPP have him ahead in Pennsylvania:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pppmain.asp?@spdT=B6B42829136845A69B19
it seems like the people are catching "Obama fever" -- just not the politicians who are indebted to Bill for his support (so they have to support Hillary)
Just follow the money. Wonder what she has promised them. As a born and raised Pennsylvanian, we all know how our politicians settle everything behind closed doors. Anyone want to slip in a pay raise in the middle of the night?
It is ridiculous to choose Harrisburg as some kind of microcosm to represent the whole state, especially since it is the seat of the Democratic establishment out of Philadelphia that has been a scourge for decades when it comes to getting corruption out and decency into our state government.
And I say this as a Democrat who is new to the state....i am appalled at the quality of the Democratic twits in office here, including our boy mayor here in Pittsburgh....a guy whose 3rd-grader's solution to the snow-removal problem was to have the plowers clear his street last (instead of first, they way they had been doing).
That is hillaryius. Yeah, there must be some overestimating the Obamamentum. I mean just three weeks ago, the Hill was 25 points ahead in the Pennsylvania poll and now she's between 0 and 5 points ahead. What momentum? Who cares that he has 130 more delegates? Most superdelegates are swinging toward Obama and he has won 13 of the last 15 states. He has 100,000 more votes and Bill is lashing out like a cornered rat. What momentum when the only Democratic U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania breaks his silence and supports Obama. This Hillary apologist is full of crap. Hey, Hillary as Obama says, run til the end. run til you run out of money (oops, too late). run til you try to run the Democratic Party into the ground. Forget it. Your message of cornered rat attacks are really ugly. You have made this a really ugly race and I hope your supporters see Obama as chance for something new.
I think Obama is catching up there.
If he loses by 5 points, it will be a victory. I think between 5 - 10 is likely.
This is a big catch up from over 20 points a few weeks ago.
Down more then 20 points a few weeks ago, now down single digits. Enough said.
Outspending Clinton 4:1 on televison....has the entire media on his side......and STILL cant surpass her.
Enough said.
He's way ahead in delegate count nationally. Not a problem. Oh! He spends more because we give him more. You Hillary supporters are cheap. You yap a lot, but you don't give her much money. Poor Hillary has to beg the lobbyists.
I was just thinking .. maybe Barry can retire the entire national debt in his first year by calling on his supporters, which would be very patriotic of them. Lucky for him we still don't have public financing of elections.
northeast.....the media on his side?
The media will be on his side when we see and hear as much about Bill's girlfriends on YOUTUBE complaining about direct threats and harrassment from Hillary as we see the right Reverend.
Show me the media's talking heads going on and on about these women's accusations that Hillary enabled a sexual predator in Arkansas and in almost every state in the nation during their campaigns for the Presidency....
Let them hound her for tax returns and dig up Marc Rich and his wife and keep questioning him and her about the pardons for criminals who had paid her brothers consulting fees to get pardoned.... then I will agree with you the media is on his side.
Until then, let me paraphrase your favorite President 'cause your in a fairy tale:
GIVE ME A "BLEEPING" BREAK!!!!
Not quite enough said.
He is outspending Clinton 4:1 because he's getting donations like crazy.
In contrast, Hillary is paying her bills two ways: Slowly, or not at all.
Enough said.
It's not Obama's fault that the Clinton campaign spent its money on expensive PR flacks whose specialty is wallpapering over corporate malfeasance. If she needs money now, she really ought to pay her bills for staff's health insurance so that the big health insurance corporations who have contibuted heaps of money to her campaign can bail her out once again....the way she bailed THEM out with her flop of a healthcare plan.
If you go to a presidential Q&A and 'complain' about "the way America treats its cities" and ask if "Obama could assure the good citizens of Harrisburg that the new federal courthouse, which was supposed to be built in the inner city neighborhood only two blocks away, would in fact be built", you have no idea how presidential politics work.
I would like to hope that any president would have bigger things to worry about than individual construction details.
Or any details, really. As Bill Clinton might have said - but didn't - back in 1992, "It's the Vision, stupid."
Yeah, I think the term "Executive" as in "Executive Branch" would indicate a larger management perspective than, "Hmm...now where should we put that stop sign?"
I think this is more like a MyDD diary rather than actual journalism.
I was commissioned in the Marine Corps in 1960; my sister joined the Peace Corps shortly after, and then one of my brothers became a Navy Seal. My youngest brother later entered the F.B.I., from which he retired. I truly believe it was partially the influence of JFK that pushed all of us in the direction our lives took, and I believe that Obama is having that influence on young people today. If he can channel it, we may have a rebirth of the zeal. Unhappily, HRC cannot inspire us to change the world.
So, I take it that your children are volunteering for the army?
-MS
Totally irrelevant comment.
this is the American Idol generation..... don't hold your breath lazy & spoiled.
What insulting crap! Maybe you raised lazy and spoiled children, but my 19-yo daughter and her friends sure aren't. They go to school, hold down jobs (multiple in some cases), write and perform music, paint, participate in politics, start businesses . . . and on and on. So they're obviously not lazy. And spoiled? My daughter refuses to let me shop for her at Nordstrom, because we "can get a top that's just as cute at Target for $40 less." She won't even let me tuck an extra $20 in her pocket on the way out the door anymore because she thinks it's so important to live within her own means!
I've never seen a more motivated generation than this one. So talk about something you know about . . . which clearly isn't much about this generation!
Hillary is the old guard Dem. money / power group. Obama is about changing the power shift.
Of course the old guard doesn't want to have any thing to do with Obama., simple reasoning.
Obama is all B.S.
Show me where he has accomplished anything.
The more I hear from him....the more convinced I am -- as a die-hard Democrat -- that I'll be voting McCain if Obama is the nominee...
Go visit his web site. You seem like one of those lazy voters who gave us George Bush. Get educated.
Rastaman:
"Obama is all B.S."? "Show me where he has accomplished anything?" You mean, you won't bother looking up the facts yourself so you need somebody to show them to you, you who call yourself a "die-hard Democrat"?
Obama has authored and passed more pieces of legislation than Clinton so far in this 110th Congress, 17(+5) vs. 15 (+1). (The "+" numbers indicate identical pieces of lesiglation attacked to different bills.) It's in the Library of Congress records, at http://thomas.loc.org/, you lazy die-hard Democrat who is willing to vote for McCain because you're a sore loser who can't take the punches when your candidate is going down the drainhole of a kitchen sink that she threw in the first place.
He has accomplished mobilizing millions of people to vote for him. He has accomplished establishment of an enormously successful ground campaign. He has accomplished getting people in this country to talk openly to each other as they never have before about the previously verboten topic of of race. He has accomplished persuading hundreds of superdelegates who had previously assumed they would support Hillary to support him instead. He has accomplished raising hundreds of millions of dollars from people who had never even heard of him two years ago. He has accomplished changing the attitude of millions of people in this country about their role in self-government.
If you can't be bothered to research his past professional and political accomplishments for yourself, at least be willing to acknowledge what he has accomplished before your very eyes!
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