Reporting The Obama Campaign Coast-to-Coast: Democrats More Undecided Than Polls Suggest

Reported by: Jason Barnett (Uptake.org), Al Cannistraro, Sheila Condit, Beverly Davis, Christine Escobar, Mayhill Fowler, Richard Greenwood, Ethan Hova, Saba Kennedy, Noah Kunin (Theuptake.org), Phoebe Love, Daniel Macht, Kim Mack, Laura Martin, Kelly Nuxoll, Deborah Phelan, Deborah Plummer, and Jeremy Thompson. Original reports available on OffTheBus.

As the Barack Obama campaign canvassed door-to-door this past weekend in scores of communities across the country, a snapshot of a campaign fueled by an unique mix of a non-confrontational style, a message of hope and sometimes unwitting amateurishness emerges.

This mid-fall freeze-frame also paints a picture of a Democratic electorate significantly more ambivalent and undecided than recent polls indicated and perhaps less motivated by the war in Iraq and more by domestic issues than previously suggested.

The portrait of the Obama campaign operating at ground level among national Democratic voters is a product of a new type of citizen journalism. In an unprecedented effort of campaign reporting, nearly two dozen Off The Bus correspondents monitored Obama Canvass for Change events in fourteen cities in nine crucial states during the past 48 hours and contributed to this report from venues as disparate as Keene, NH, Des Moines and Dubuque, and Minneapolis; Studio City, Corte Madera, Berkeley, Sacramento, Koreatown - Los Angeles, and Altadena, CA; from Boise, Brooklyn and Ballard; from Manhattan, KS, Memphis and Charlotte, NC. (To see all of our campaign monitor reports click here.)

Despite neighborhood and regional differences, and although the levels of sophistication and competency among the individual campaign events varied, our correspondents found several common themes, the most striking of which is to what degree Democrats still declare themselves undecided.

It's abundantly clear that, less than four months before the onslaught of decisive primaries and caucuses, many Democratic voters have just not made up their minds. "Of those that would speak to us, almost all were undecided," reports correspondent Phoebe Love who followed the Obama canvass through Ballard, Washington. She is echoed by contributor Ethan Hova in Studio City, a middle-class Democratic suburban stronghold in Los Angeles: "The vast majority of voters were very much undecided and expressed reluctance to engage in debate without conducting research on their own." Daniel Macht, following the Obama campaign in Brooklyn, New York noted the same hesitation: "They were all undecided, save one Edwards supporter." Perhaps most importantly, correspondent Beverly Davis reports from Des Moines, "Smith [ an Obama volunteer] knocks on Dan Arply's door and launches into his opening rap but Arply soon interrupts by saying, 'Thanks for stopping by, but I haven't decided on supporting anyone yet.' Arply is a typical Iowan."

It's difficult to draw hard and fast conclusions from such anecdotal material but it might suggest that the slew of recent polls giving Hillary Clinton a commanding lead in the race for the nomination may be of limited utility. Correspondent Hova found widespread indifference toward Clinton as he went door-to-door with the Obama canvassers: "This was a fairly affluent suburb north of Los Angeles and I was really surprised not to find a single Hillary supporter in the neighborhood."

It's possible that numerous Democrats who have declared for Clinton to a pollster are like the shopper who hoists a likely candidate from the pumpkin bin inside the supermarket door. Maybe a keeper, maybe not, for there's the possibility of a better find further along in produce.

Balancing this good news for Obama is the likelihood that the centerpiece of Saturday's Canvass, retelling the story of Obama's opposition to the War in Iraq, was a bust. Kelly Nuxoll reports from the Left Coast of Berkeley, "The war seemed nominally an issue, but social issues, health care . . . also came up a lot." Nominally an issue--in Berkeley? Christine Escobar in Dubuque: "Only viewed one 25 year old woman responding to the war message." Deborah Phelan in Corte Madera in liberal Northern California found similar responses: "People were very much tired of talking about the Iraq war." Ditto for Daniel Macht in Brooklyn: "All said the war wasn't the only issue they cared about."

If the war is less and less a campaign issue for ordinary Americans in California and New York (and who would have predicted this?), then what is the mindset of the less liberal Democratic voter in the heartland? From what I saw of the canvass in Memphis, not a single person cared about Barack Obama's position vis-à-vis anybody else on the Iraq War.

Instead, health care reform seemed to top the priority list for Democratic voters contacted by the Obama canvassers. Correspondent Davis in Des Moines reports: "Arply tells Smith that he likes Obama and that he's concerned about health care." Contributot Saba Kennedy in Charlotte, NC: "...healthcare was a BIG issue." Clinton, Edwards and Obama have all put forward health insurance plans modest enough in scope to seem, at least on first glance, to be possibilities. Therefore, it's not surprising that grassroots Democratic voters are beginning to shift their attention from the war to a more hopeful subject.

This past weekend's national Canvass for Change like all things Obama, carried with it an aura of transformation. As contributor Deborah Plummer found, "Obama has sparked a light in young people." Reporting from Manhattan, KS, she goes on to say, "So, 20 volunteers [at the canvass] for Obama seems a lot to me. I went to KSU for over 20 years and never met over 10 liberals/progressives the entire time and to think there could be a rising tide of 20 potential liberals/progressives who will be spanning out to Manhattan households spreading Obama's philosophy is awesome...." Laura Martin in a very red-tinged Boise found a similar glitter: "Idaho hasn't sent a Democrat to the White House since Lyndon B. Johnson, but I do believe come Super Tuesday 2008, Idaho is going blue for Obama."

Countering some this Obama magic, however, is a growing frustration among his volunteers that he is not moving up in the polls. Ethan Hova from Studio City again: "We encountered several households of fervent Obama supporters and their mood could be summed up as frustrated. They seemed mostly concerned about his perceived lack of traction in the polls...." But the grassroots volunteers slog on. As Deborah Phelan reports from Corte Madera, "Volunteer Sandy Grant laughs about the big Barack Obama supporter she talked to who showed up later to register to vote at the booth. 'Look at us, so excited about one teenager when there are millions of people across America who have to register.' Everybody nods. They're all thinking the same thing. One vote at a time."

(Indeed, Deborah Phalen and I found such contrasting pictures of the Obama campaign in Northern California and Tennessee respectivively that I will detail the differences in an upcoming report).

There were also some moments of unintended humor and general weirdness that punctuated the weekend canvass. One older street vendor in Brooklyn yelled "Take a bath!" at one earnest Obama supporter passing out flyers to passersby. At other events, the organizers sometimes outnumbered the canvassers, reminding some newbie volunteers that effective politics is really about the art of building coalitions. Make sure and read all of our ground level reports assembled in the last 48 hours by clicking here.

Off The Bus campaign monitors (Jason Barnett (Theuptake.org), Al Cannistraro, Sheila Condit, Beverly Davis, Christine Escobar, Mayhill Fowler, Richard Greenwood, Ethan Hova, Saba Kennedy, Noah Kunin (Thuptake.org), Phoebe Love, Daniel Macht, Kim Mack, Laura Martin, Kelly Nuxoll, Deborah Phelan, Deborah Plummer, and Jeremy Thompson) contributed to this report. If you'd like to work wtih us on future campaign reports, join our OffTheBus Campaign Monitors team. -END

Comments

[Pdubya]

this blue dog democrat has decided:

www.ronpaul2008.com

[lafrance]

what I find frustrating is that the msm has anointed Hillary our nominee 2 years ago and is determined to stick with that storyline. So, instead of reporting the truth, like the vast majority of voters have not decided who they will vote for and that most support is soft, they make it sound like she is really inevitable and that the Democrats overwhelming want her as our nominee.
This is to make those who support candidates like Barack Obama feel defeated and why bother to keep plugging away or support the candidate and give money to him.
it's called the undermining of a very good candidate in favor of a corrupt and establishment candidate. The media is doing everything to discourage people and make them support Clinton.
I normally would say to forget the media but, their influence in driving support away is really hurting our other candidates and I wish there was someway to stop it.
I mean, you always are hearing put downs of our candidates, especially Obama, who they are daily beating down, and yet, Hillary has enjoyed nothing but a free ride and daily touting by the same media.
Is there anything we can do to stop it to make sure we have a fair primary and not one fixed by the media?

[abbiehoffmansghost]

I'm voting for who would make America what it should and could be given a chance. First Dennis Kucinch and if he doesn't make it to the general election then I hope Ralph Nader runs again. I should have voted for him in the last election.

[LondonInNY]

Americans are beginning to recognize the false left-right paradigm in American politics and are having a hard time distinguishing Hillary from the Republican opposition. The Clintons have destroyed the old Democratic party and are now linining up to collect money from the same folks that have traditionally supported those on the right. Bush's Eagles are Hillary's big donors. Hillary's triangulation of every issue has many traditionally Democratic voters wondering whether she in fact presents any real significant change to the existing social order. The anti-Clinton vote is widespread and not going away. Hillary is fortunate that vote will be divided up by several candidates during the primaries. Her weakness will not be recognized until the general election when a weak Republican candidate will be able to win enough red states and make things close in some blue states enough perhaps to do her in. HILLARY IS A BIG MISTAKE FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY and will take the party down in 2008. Not enough Americans are excited by the prospect of another Clinton Presidency. Clinton will lose some core Democratic voters who will either stay home, cast a protest vote or even vote for the real Republican in the face. I have had way too many conversations with people of my generation and those of a younger generation who sincerely want this country to turn a page on the Bush & Clinton years. Personally, I wish the most qualified New York politician would run for President as an Independent and that is MICHAEL BLOOMBERG. BLOOMBERG/OBAMA would be my ticket.

[kyeblue]

I, too, would vote for Bloomberg over any candidates that are in both parties, and I can also keep my pocket tight because he doesn't need my contribution. But Obama is way too partisan to enlist himself on the independent ticket, and he is not that much different from the Clintons. By the way, I hope that you are not among those in 2000 who critisized Al Gore for distancing himself from Clintons during his compaign.

[mommadona]

"Pssst....It's Still the Economy, Stupid"....

[JohnSmart]

the idea that Barak Obama is going to be the democratic nominee was and remains just plain silly. Clinton could lose some minor support around the edges. A surprise could happen in iowa. But Hillary will have to make a huge mistake to give obama a chance. the on-going delusion of obama supporters is that the Democratic party rank and file is actually the Left wing of the party. It is not. Obama has served one purpose for Clinton this year: He made hillary a better candidate. Still the core of the Democratic party is middle of the road working people. Not the "arugula" set. The Arugula Set is 25% of the party. The moderate middle is 60%. Obama ruined Edwards. He really did not do much or any damage to Clinton.

[ElkoJohn]

pretty good analysis. the silent majority will always vote the status quo. bye bye Ron Paul, Edwards, Obama, Kucinich. thank you american for more of the same.

[Witchitalineman]

At least the "silent majority" votes. We need everyone to vote not the minimal. We need a new voting system not caucauses. I don't think most of us have made up our minds so I wouldn't be so quick to say goodbye to the likes of Edwards. He's a decent person, and I think would be a very good president.

[Jonni Rae]

Obama does not represent the Left Wing of the party or the "argula" set. He represents transforming our democracy, taking it back, changing the way Washington works to make it once again represent the people. He has the most thought-out, complete strategies on all the issues ( You need to read them, to know, however.) He appeals as much to Independents as to Democrats.He has a pragmatic approach, not a ideological one. He is now fighting the MSM and the Clinton Machine, which would have us believe that the race is over before one vote has been cast. He is also fighting those who believe he is not electable because of his racial background. I am sick of the cynicism that prevails in these blogs about the democratic candidates and the unwillingness to become informed before making judgements.

[CLMMIT]

All hillary does is pander to blacks for their votes. Some blacks are stupid enough to cast their votes for her, but not me. As a black woman I could never vote for her. She neither or husband has not done nothing for be and I am not obligated to vote for her like those other uncle tom's, for example, John Lewis, Quincy Jones, Magic Jones and a few more.
Obama 08!

[nihilon x]

Both Magic Johnson and Quincy Jones have invested millions of dollars into the black community, and continue to be actively involved in such charities to this very day.

Its fair to say that you don't support Clinton, but to call both of these individuals "Uncle Tom"'s just because they don't share your political views is both short-sighted and biased.

--

"The Magic Johnson Foundation (MJF) was founded in December of 1991 by Earvin "Magic" Johnson. The mission of the Foundation is to identify and support community-based organizations that address the educational, health, and social needs of children, young adults and inner-city communities throughout the nation.

MJF also donates needed funds to organizations that provide HIV/AIDS prevention and health care education to the minority community. Our objectives are to allocate grants to, and partner with, non-profit agencies for the good of our children and our future by raising funds and/or awareness"

http://www.magicjohnson.org/media.php

[TurnThePageGA]

Yeah I would not label John Lewis (I used to be in his District prior to reditricting a few years ago), Magic (I been a Laker fan since Wilt went there from the Sixers almost 40 years ago), and Q The Uncle Tom word. I am disappointed that they aren't supporting the first legitimate African-American candidate who has a voice for all Americans (Sorry Reverend Jackson and Reverend Al were considered to divisve). Unlike Hillary, Obama doesnot pander to our community. And alot of our Caucus Members and other powerful political leaders (State Senator from SC) are selling out to the the pandering. Our community doesnot need more pandering to. Obama has been telling us what we need to hear, not just what we want to hear. Probably toned down a little from Cosby. But he can speak to the things that we need to do in a way that no other candidate can "for a change". We don't need candidates (Hillary) throwing a few bones our way. It does not get us where we need to go and ultimately this country where it needs to go. At the same time his candidacy can inspire many young people that you too can dream. "It's the hope of slaves sitting around a fire singing freedom songs; the hope of immigrants setting out for distant shores.....the hope of a skinny kid with a funny name who believes that America has a place for him, too. The audacity of hope"

[themodernleader]

The American electorate are seeing our economic and financial system being dismantled and sold to aliens. And they see our private and public entities growing with debt and indebtedness. And they see jobs that pay a living wage for raising a family being destroyed with no future for the rising generation.
The candidate that grasps this dismal shape of things and articulates a sensible program for turning around our precipitiously declining American Republic will surge in the polls and be the candidate to beat rather than ge, as with Obama, the challenger.
People want affordable health care, but the main issue is how are we going to pay for it while sustaining a credible economic system. All Americans want to know how we are going to sustain a jobs producing system without continuous borrowing unless we have a fundamentally sound system of domestic manufacturing and innovation and balanced trade agreements and so on.
If Obama is to have a ghost of a chance of winning the primaries he must propose the outlines of a powerful rebirth of American economic, industrial potential and reopening of opportunity for all Americans.
Americans are asking the candidates to propose what is best for America, not what is offered on the basis of poll data without consideration of the general good. Senator Obama, fire your mechanistic, unappreciative advisors, throw away your polls and tell the people what are the issues of our looming bankruptcy, economic servitude and offer your new deal and reality-based vision for the American people. Promises of everything for nothing and more promises echoing the past are not enough. Americans know if they don't get it right this go around there may not be another.

[Jonni Rae]

YES!!! Obama, get this message out. (YOu don't have to fire people!)

[Galvestonians for Dr. Ron Paul]

The Dems are not undecided.
They arent showing up because we are leaving our party for Ron Paul...
The stupid shits still havent realized they are losing their base to a conservative congressman from Texas, who represents their ideas and values better than they do.
And he has the voting record to prove it.
They are slowly awakening to this fact.
The Republicans are too stupid to see it. They wont even believe this to be the case.
The true republicans have already followed him from the mainstream of their party.

I would challenge anyone to find a better voting record and better foreign policy than Dr. Ron Paul.
Make sure this person would be electable, also.

[YellowDogInRedCounty]

Ron Paul is a dangerous man. Aside from his position on the war which is good, he is totally against a woman's right to choose, he is totally against even having the Dept of Education, he is against any federal funding of anything.

Any Democratic voter who is in favor of that is just plain misinformed.

[Pdubya]

LOL.

He is not against a woman's right to choose! He is against the Federal Government telling all women that abortion is legal OR illegal. He has stated he would support reciprocity between states on abortion, if thats what the votership votes for.

What has the department of education done for your child lately? My guess is your State has done much more.

And no, he is NOT against Federal funding of anything. In fact, he is compassionate and wise enough to know that we can't throw people out on the street. He wants to take overseas spending, revamp our raped entitlement systems, get people a head start, and then, only then create incentive based systems to wean us off of the corporate welfare state.

He adamately believes in the separation of church and state, and thus, obviously takes our collective constitutional interests superior to his personal abortion viewpoints.

Are you for Capital punishment?

[pinkerman2]

I want Barrack elected and nothing will change that, esp: articles like this. Frankly it reads like something Rove would plant. I'm infuriated that anyone would give more weight to domestic issues than to Iraq. If Iraq wasn't draining our treasury, we wouldn't have the domestic problems.

pinkerman2

[MikeDu]

Being a Massachusetts resident has its fun moments. Not only did I get to witness a cardboard representation of Mitt Romney in the Governor's office for four years, I've also got to observe his replacement - Democrat Deval Patrick, a charming come-from-nowhere candidate much in the same mould as Obama. Even has the same handlers, I recall. Unfortunately, for all his charm Patrick's started out a bit of a clutz in office. I'm really hoping he manages to successfully conquer the state politics learning curve. Patrick's short awkward time as governor has given me some pause regarding Obama's candidacy. We can agee we haven't had a charming personality with proper oratory skills in the oval office for seven years. But we also haven't had a competent manager either. What we need to is some assurance that he's capable of succesfully 'getting under the hood and tinkering with the engine'. But let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater here. None of his competition (Demo or Repub) has impressed me as a world-class manager either.

[squareyellowpaper]

Sorry, but Obama has lost his luster. Too much of his wife and Oprah. Sorry, I thought he was a man not talking heads with outfits.

Hillary is the stronger candidate.

[ariuszme]

Obama is unelectable and unqualified. End of story.

It also says a lot (to me anyway) when a guy with zero experience thinks he can bypass life lessons and straight out run for president.

He and Edwards cannot win over the swing voters.

The Supreme Court is in jeopardy if a republican gains the white house again.

Hillary '08

[MikeDu]

Thanks for mentioning the Supreme Court. People lose sight of the REAL issues. This isn't a 'beauty contest', its a struggle to retain the United States as a functioning republic. One more Scalia nutcase on the bench would sink us outright.

[MarkieBee]

Can you please tell me what experience gap exists between Obama and Hillary? Obama has almost twice the elected legislative experience as Hillary and has passed more substantive bills in the Senate than she has in one-third the amount of time. The only shred of experience advantage that she holds over Obama is that she voted for the Iraq War. That's her soul experience as a sernator. I'll take judgment over that kind of experience any day of the week.

[714Day]

The reality is that most voters aren't clacking on their keyboards to check out what the lastest HuffPo commentary is.
They're too tired after scrambling around all day with work and getting food on the table.
They will make up their minds at the last minute and that's the way it's nearly always been in my not so short life.
They want whoever it may be in the end who seems least likely to screw them in the rear.
Skip the stereotypes and prognostications based on that kind of malarky.
Imagine ANYONE being undecided when they are up against the Republican cabal that has colluded with Cheney/Bush and my point is illustrated.
The "undecided" beanbags in this thread who suggest they'd vote for Giuliani over any Democrat (even the wicked witch from the midwest) are the exception. They're just plain nuts.

[714Day]

What a delight to read that the MSM has, yet again, missed the boat.
I took the time to read the individual reports, as well. (Daniel Macht's from Brooklyn is a riot.)
How disappointing it was to read that Al Cannistraro from Keene, NH, was barred from interviewing the "staffers" from Obama NH headquarters. This was a most unfortunate revelation that I hope Mr. Obama himself doesn't support.
As to the rabid Obama supporters who so dislike the other candidates, what will they do when Barack chooses a running mate from the field? Jump ship?

[JewishJesus]

What ELSE can these losers say???? As HRC widens her lead, the Obama delusional camp sees something else! Is it the 'shrooms, or what???