In a landmark decision, the United States Sentencing Commission voted last month to lower the recommended penalty for federal drug crimes by about 17 percent. As of now, the change will apply only to defendants who are sentenced after November 1, 2014. But the Commission is also exploring whether the reduction should be made retroactive, and it issued two reports (available here and here) analyzing that question last week.
Four things struck me as I read the reports. First, the Commission estimates that, if the changes were made retroactive, 51,141 individuals who are currently in prison (an incredible 23 percent of the total population) would be eligible to seek a reduction in their sentences. That a large number of people will be affected is not surprising -- almost half of all federal prisoners (48 percent) are incarcerated for drug crimes. But what is surprising is that even if all 51,141 were to get reduced sentences, we would have barely begun to bring the federal prison population down to pre-drug war levels. We incarcerated approximately 25,000 people in federal prisons in 1980. By 2013, that number had risen to over 219,000. As a result, the federal prison system is operating at 36 percent over capacity, costing taxpayers $6.4 billion per year and climbing. Congress is currently considering a bill called the Smarter Sentencing Act, which would cut statutory mandatory minimum sentences for drug crimes by half. This measure and others must be enacted if we are to unwind the federal prison build up of the past 30 years.
Second, a significant percentage (about 25 percent) of the 51,141 potentially eligible for earlier release are non-citizens who may be subject to deportation. Many rightly question the wisdom of incarcerating large numbers of ultimately deportable non-citizens at taxpayer expense. And this statistic is a reminder that any effort to address the out-of-control growth in our federal prisons must wrestle with the fact that an estimated 11 percent of federal inmates are incarcerated for immigration offenses, making them one of the fastest growing segments of the population. In large part, this represents a failure of prosecutorial discretion. Operation Streamline, a policy put in place in 2005, mandates the prosecution of nearly all undocumented immigrants who cross the southern border at certain locations. As a result, border district courts have seen their immigration caseloads rise by more than 330 percent. Keeping the majority of these cases out of the criminal justice system would be the better part of discretion.
Third, the average age of an inmate who will be eligible for a sentence reduction is 38 years. In the universe of criminal justice, 38 is old. Researchers have consistently found that involvement in street crimes, like drug offenses, generally begins in the early teenage years, peaks in young adulthood, and dissipates before the individual turns 30. Explanations for this phenomenon are varied, but "[a] large body of research shows that desistance from crime... is... tied to the acquisition of meaningful bonds to conventional adult individuals and institutions, such as work, marriage and family..." These older offenders should have a low risk of recidivism generally. And the more that we can do to foster their re-engagement with their families and communities, the lower that risk will be.
Fourth, 20 percent of the individuals who may be eligible for earlier release come from one state: Texas. True, Texas is big and populous, but it's also punitive. The more heavily populated state of California only accounts for five percent of potential sentence reductions, while New York accounts for about four percent. Reading the charts that accompany the Sentencing Commission report is a statistical window into the American drug war, in which hang 'em high southern states feature prominently, if not proudly.
The Sentencing Commission is accepting public comments until July 7, 2014 on whether to make these changes to drug sentences retroactive. Some will no doubt argue against retroactivity, either out of fear that releasing individuals earlier will permit them re-offend sooner or out of concern for the serious workload that federal courts will have to take on in order to process so many applications for sentence reduction. But if we have revised our view of what constitutes a just sentence for a drug offense, then we cannot and should not justify continuing to incarcerate 51,141 people under an old, rejected understanding. We should never be afraid of too much justice.